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          NFL betting: Under-the-radar props to bet in Week 6

          Which Josh Allen prop bet will have value on Monday night? AP Photo/Eric Gay
          • Seth WalderOct 11, 2024, 04:49 PM ET
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              Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on "ESPN Bet Live" and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.

          We're betting to win.

          And if I'm the one doing the betting, there are two keys I need to have the confidence to place the wager:

          A model-backed approach, or at the very least a quantitative-based angle. But almost all the bets in this column will be based on the outputs of models built by me, or occasionally my colleagues at ESPN Analytics.

          A less efficient market. NFL sides and totals are voluminous markets, and betting against those mainstream numbers is like wagering on All-Madden mode. It's why I often look to props (especially on defense!) and alternate lines. Less attention means less efficient markets and therefore more opportunities to find value.

          Those two criteria make up the crux of this weekly column, though occasionally I'll recommend bets that satisfy one criterion or the other. Each week I'll post bets from our models in mostly lower-visibility categories with the simple goal of coming out ahead. We'll be looking at odds all across the spectrum, from -1000 to 100-1 -- as far as I'm concerned, value is value no matter the price.

          Results for this season can be found at the bottom of this story.

          Let's dive into Week 6.

          Defensive player props

          Josh Hines-Allen (JAX) under 0.5 sacks (-115)

          Hines-Allen has been a little disappointing in the sack department this year, with just two after his 17.5-sack season a year ago. That's backed up by Hines-Allen having just a 13% pass rush win rate on the edge, below average for the position and slightly down from last year (though he was only average then, Hines-Allen has never been a PRWR star).

          Though Caleb Williams does take sacks at a higher than average 8.6% clip, it's not a crazy number, and the Bears offensive line has steadied itself in recent weeks and has moved up to 10th in pass block win rate. Put it all together and the model thinks the under here should be -160.

          Quay Walker (GB) under 8.5 tackles + assists (+103)

          Though Walker has gone over this line in three of five games this season, my tackle model is bearish on his chances to do so again this week. Walker's 16% tackle rate against the run (meaning he records a tackle on 16% of opponent run plays) is below the 19% average for an off-ball linebacker. Additionally, his run stop win rate is a weaker 28%.

          The Packers are 4.5-point favorites, which means Arizona is more likely to use more passing plays, which result in fewer tackle opportunities for a linebacker like Walker. My model predicts 7.4 combined tackles for Walker.

          See also:

          Running Back Receptions

          Saquon Barkley (PHI) under 2.5 receptions (-105) (added 10/11)

          We're going back to the well here on one of my favorite angles; running back reception unders vs. man coverage. If you're new here, the gist is that running backs catch passes far less frequently against man coverage compared to zone and in backtesting I found that that did not seem to be fully baked into the betting market. From the start of last season to now, it's created some nice wins for us.

          Barkley is going against the Browns, who are resisting the league's move to two-high safeties and are also running man coverage 61% of the time, the second most in the league. Therefore I am somewhat blindly taking Barkley's under.

          Alternate receiving yards

          Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) 90-plus receiving yards (+150)

          Even though the model is incorporating St. Brown's "standard" receiving yards over-under of 79.5 (shaded toward under), it still feels like that 90.5 will be the appropriate median line. That's because there are a whole bunch of factors that the model loves to see:

          • St. Brown's receiving yards total is usually a little higher than what it is this week.

          • St. Brown has an extremely high target rate (31%, fourth highest among wide receivers) and runs a ton of routes.

          • The Cowboys have allowed 7.0 yards per coverage snap when in man coverage, the third-highest rate in the league.

          • The game's total is a 52.5, the highest in Week 6.

          All of those factors make the model more bullish about St. Brown to hit this slightly higher alt total than the odds suggest.

          See also:

          Anytime touchdowns

          Jauan Jennings (SF) to score a touchdown (+260)

          Just because Jennings' monster 175-yard game in Week 3 came when Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle were out doesn't mean it was a total fluke. Though his playing time returned to normal levels around 55% of offensive snaps, the skill that led to Jennings' big day has remained. Jennings ranks ninth among WRs in ESPN's overall score for receivers (which is not in the model, but is a good sign).

          What the model loves is that Jennings is first among qualifying wide receivers in completed air yards per route (2.7), where we only credit receivers for the air yards on receptions and divide by route run. Nico Collins is second in that statistic, which is partially why this model has loved him in past weeks. It prices Jennings to score Thursday night at +199.

          QB interceptions

          Josh Allen (BUF) under 0.5 interceptions (-105)

          We're winless on interceptions this year, so I'm hoping Allen can end the streak. Though Allen is facing what is unquestionably a good defense in the Jets, the under has several advantages working in its favor. The first is Allen himself, who has yet to throw an interception this year.

          Though a smaller sample, the model isn't relying entirely on 2024: For quarterback stats like interceptions, it still has a hefty prior left over from last year and it still likes his under.

          Plus, the Bills are slight favorites in the game, which means he's less likely to need to take big risks, and the Bills lean run-heavy under offensive coordinator Joe Brady. The model makes the fair price -119.

          Alternate totals

          Detroit Lions-Dallas Cowboys over 55.5 (+135)

          This comes from FPI+, our translation of ESPN's Football Power Index into a model that can be compared directly against the betting market. The FPI+ model makes the fair price on this alternate over +117. There are two big reasons; the quarterbacks and the venue.

          In this case, we have two quarterbacks who are not only both good and productive in the model's mind, but also quite evenly matched. In addition, the game is in a dome. In both cases, FPI+'s belief is that these two factors are more beneficial to the upside variance in totals than the market does. That's the benefit of playing the alt line -- we're pricing the upside.

          Past results

          Past results for this season are below. I wrote about the rules I set for myself regarding line movement and adding props in Week 1's column.