We're betting to win.
And if I'm the one doing the betting, there are two keys I need to have the confidence to place the wager:
A model-backed approach, or at the very least a quantitative-based angle. But almost all the bets in this column will be based on the outputs of models built by me, or occasionally my colleagues at ESPN Analytics.
A less efficient market. NFL sides and totals are voluminous markets, and betting against those mainstream numbers is like wagering on All-Madden mode. It's why I often look to props (especially on defense!) and alternate lines. Less attention means less efficient markets and therefore more opportunities to find value.
Those two criteria make up the crux of this weekly column, though occasionally I'll recommend bets that satisfy one criterion or the other. Each week I'll post bets from our models in mostly lower-visibility categories with the simple goal of coming out ahead. We'll be looking at odds all across the spectrum, from -1000 to 100-1 -- as far as I'm concerned, value is value no matter the price.
Results for this season can be found at the bottom of this story.
Let's dive into Week 4.
Defensive player props
Mario Edwards Jr. (HOU) under 0.5 sacks (-210)
Edwards' career in Houston is off to a quick start with two sacks, but the model is fading him at this price because he still only has a 9% pass rush win rate despite the two sacks, a touch below average. Though Trevor Lawrence has taken sacks at an extremely high 10% rate, his career sack rate entering this season was just 5%. The model, which prices Edwards' under at -429, is underrating him because his playing time has increased this year. But because its number is so different -- and Edwards is still only playing 59% of snaps -- that I'm willing to still roll with it.
Bobby Okereke (NYG) under 8.5 tackles + assists (-110)
Okereke is an every-down linebacker on an underdog team, which is normally a recipe for a lot of tackles. But the model is influenced since Okereke's tackles are down this year; he's generated a tackle on just 10% of opponent's run plays, down from 22% last year. He also has yet to go over 8.5 tackles in a game this season.
It's possible that's just noise and the model is still considering his performance last year, too, but it's enough to bring his forecast down to 7.3 combined tackles in Thursday's contest.
See also:
Riley Moss (DEN) under 5.5 tackles + assists (-114) (added 9/27)
Troy Reeder (LAR) under 7.5 tackles + assists (+107) (added 9/27)
Christian Rozeboom (LAR) over 6.5 tackles + assists (+110) (added 9/27)
Germaine Pratt (CIN) under 8.5 tackles + assists (+107) (added 9/27)
Azeez Al-Shaair (HOU) under 9.5 tackles + assists (-114) (added 9/27)
Jadeveon Clowney (CAR) under 0.5 sacks (-125) (added 9/27)
Kobie Turner (LAR) under 0.5 sacks (-140) (added 9/27)
Nick Bosa (SF) over 0.5 sacks (-155) (added 9/27)
Receptions
Breece Hall (NYJ) under 4.5 receptions (-155)
We're continuing to blind bet the under on running backs against the most man-heavy defenses for a simple reason: Running backs catch passes much less frequently against man coverage, and my guess is that this is not fully baked into the prop market. No team has run more man coverage than Denver this year, at 63%.
Alternate receiving yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) 100+ receiving yards (+200)
No, St. Brown doesn't run a ton of deep routes, but he makes up for it in volume. He runs a route on 92% of Detroit's dropbacks (fourth most among qualifying wide receivers) and is targeted 31% of the time when he runs a route (seventh most).
I particularly like this one because the model is considering Seattle's raw EPA numbers on defense, which are inflated due to poor opponents this year, and still likes St. Brown at this price anyway. It makes the price +135.
Allen Lazard (NYJ) 40+ receiving yards (+175)
I was about as down on Lazard as one could be heading into 2024, but there's no arguing he's been a pleasant surprise for the Jets. The model sees that improvement, where his target rate has jumped from 12% to 19% and his catch-per-route rate has increased from 5% to 13%, while his vertical route rate and air yards per target have come down.
Of course, having Aaron Rodgers throwing to him has helped, too. Lazard's median line is 29.5 shaded toward the over, and my full distribution model thinks it's worth pushing it to 40+ at +175, which makes the fair price +106.
See also:
Jalen Tolbert (DAL) 45+ receiving yards (+225)
Jerry Jeudy (CLE) 50+ receiving yards (+125)
Anytime touchdowns
DK Metcalf (SEA) to score a touchdown (+150)
Metcalf is a deep threat who earns plenty of targets and the scoring environment sets up nicely for him here: The Seahawks are underdogs going against another high-powered offense, so I suspect they'll pass at a higher rate than the 63% they've averaged this season (14th most). My touchdown model puts his odds at +119.
QB interceptions
Jared Goff (DET) over 0.5 interceptions (+100)
The Seahawks have had the best defense in football, by EPA per play, through three weeks. Now I'd be the first to tell you that that is probably mostly driven by their incredibly lackluster opponents to date: Denver, New England and a Skylar Thompson-led Miami squad. But still, the early returns on the Mike Macdonald defense in Seattle are strong. Could he throw enough wrinkles to throw off Goff and force a mistake? My interception model says there is a 53.6% chance the answer is yes.
Alternate totals
Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals over 56.5 (+185)
FPI has been performing well, though we'll point out that it could very, very easily just be luck this early in the season. Here we're using FPI+, our translation of FPI into a model designed for betting purposes, to look at an alternate total. It's playing the variance game as these are two offenses with upside, so it sees swinging for the plus-money as worth it. FPI+ prices this total at +157.
Past results
Past results for this season are below. I wrote about the rules I set for myself regarding line movement and adding props in Week 1's column.