There's nothing quite like the thrill of (attempting) to solve the puzzle of each week of the college football season. The excitement of finding an underdog with the potential to pull off an upset, predicting the highest and lowest scoring games and which over/unders to bet on and, of course, uncovering the best bet of the week that could make all the difference.
Each week I'll examine the numbers, trends and insights that ultimately inform my decisions, but before getting started, there are three rules that every bettor needs to keep in mind: Never wager more than you can afford to lose, always keep it fun, fire away and enjoy game day.
Now here we go. Let's tackle Week 1 matchups.
All lines current as of publication time, courtesy of ESPN BET.
Three undervalued Week 1 underdogs
When evaluating underdogs, I don't just look at teams that can cover the spread, but also teams that can win outright. Georgia Tech upset Florida State as a 10.5-point underdog in Week 0. Upsets can always happen, especially in these early weeks, but the theme of Week 1 is returning production.
These are the three underdog teams that could be a surprise in Week 1:
Coastal Carolina (+2.5) at Jacksonville State
Chanticleers coach Tim Beck announced he won't name a starting quarterback until game day, but he had previously stated that he would choose the quarterback with the most experience over talent. If that's the case, Ethan Vasko is the guy. He was the third-string quarterback (76-122, 799 yards in eight games last season) after starter Grayson McCall was injured midyear. If it's not Vasko, then Michigan State transfer Noah Kim will get the nod, but I'm banking on it being Vasko because of his familiarity with the system. Vasko is more than capable and led Coastal to a 28-24 win over Old Dominion last season, overcoming a 15-point deficit.
The key for Coastal Carolina is its offensive line. It was a major strength last season, ranking 24th in the country with only 17 sacks allowed, the fewest in the Sun Belt Conference. The line will continue to be a strength with the return of key starters, including Nick Del Grande, an All-Sun Belt honorable mention. The Chanticleers have a balanced attack. They averaged at least 100 rushing yards and 250 passing yards in nine of 12 games last season and their offensive strategy should largely remain the same this year. Vasko was second on the team in rushing yards (318) and RB Braydon Bennett will return for a fifth year.
I like continuity and Jacksonville State will have some changes to its roster. The Gamecocks were the third-best rushing offense, but they're now down two players (quarterback Zion Webb and RB Malik Johnson) who combined for half the team's rushing yards and nearly half the rushing scores. Also gone are the Gamecocks' top two tackles. Coastal Carolina can start Week 1 off with a win and continue to build on a future without McCall in the lineup.
Western Michigan (+24) at Wisconsin
The Badgers have new talent, including Miami transfer quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, and we can expect a heavy dose of the passing game as it continues to develop under offensive coordinator Phil Longo. Twenty-four points is a lot to cover with Van Dyke under center. He tied for the fifth-most interceptions in the country last season (12 in 11 games with Miami) and has been prone to forcing throws into coverage rather than opting for safer checkdowns. We'll see if Longo's scheme helps Van Dyke reduce his turnovers by providing clearer reads and better protection.
Western Michigan finished 4-8 last year as the Broncos' secondary struggled. However, that should change under new defensive coordinator Scott Power. Power's defense at Louisiana Tech ranked 26th in turnovers nationally in 2022. The Broncos also return key contributors, including their top safety, top two linebackers and top cornerback. Two of those players, CB Bilhal Kone and LB Damari Roberson, are returning seniors who can disrupt Van Dyke with their size, versatility and experience.
Asking for WMU to win outright (+1300) as 24-point underdogs is ... not the smart play. However, Miami lost as 19.5-point favorites to Georgia Tech last season with Van Dyke as quarterback. Anything is possible in Week 1 but a 24-point cover is realistic.
James Madison at Charlotte (+6.5)
The Charlotte 49ers finished 2023 with a 3-9 record but showed competitiveness against ranked teams like Florida, SMU and Memphis. Just three wins, and yet, only a near touchdown underdog to the James Madison Dukes. Interesting.
Charlotte got an upgrade at quarterback with Florida transfer Max Brown, who saw action in six games as a backup for the Gators. Brown's first collegiate start came against top-ranked Florida State, where he showed potential. He is known for his strong arm and ability to make plays both in the air and on the ground, but it's his athleticism and competitive nature that make him a valuable asset for Charlotte's offense, which struggled with consistency last season.
Meanwhile, James Madison is starting a new era under coach Bob Chesney after Curt Cignetti left for Indiana. As a result, many of the Dukes' starters last season on both sides left the program, including star QB Jordan McCloud. The 6.5-point spread shows the vulnerability of what is essentially a program starting from scratch.
Lowest/Highest game totals of the week
It's interesting to look at both the highest and lowest point totals of the week and perhaps find an exaggeration in the market.
Lowest total of Week 1: Miami (OH) at Northwestern, 39.5
Prediction: OVER 39.5
This total has seen movement from the opening line of 41.5. This line movement doesn't scare me. Brett Gabbert returns to the RedHawks for his sixth season and threw for 1,634 yards and 14 touchdowns in limited action last year. His ability to stretch the field and his presence alone elevate the offense.
Northwestern will either go with Mike Wright or Jack Lausch at QB. Wright is a graduate transfer from Mississippi State with previous experience at Vanderbilt. Known for his dual-threat capabilities, Wright accumulated 1,229 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in his career, alongside his passing skills. Lausch is a redshirt sophomore who has been with Northwestern, developing within the program. He has less game experience but program familiarity.
I expect Wright to get the start, with Zach Lujan in his first year as Northwestern's offensive coordinator. Luhan brings experience from South Dakota State, where he successfully utilized a mobile quarterback. A game of two mobile quarterbacks, expected to lead more dynamic and efficient offenses, could get this game to OVER 39.5.
Highest: North Texas at South Alabama, 64.5
Prediction: UNDER 64.5
North Texas is known for its high-octane offense, ranking fifth in yards per game last year and second in plays per game. The Mean Green like to pass and play fast. However, UNT lost its top two running backs, Ayo Adeyi and Oscar Adaway, who combined for 1,755 of the 2,294 team total rushing yards. Establishing the run early can set up play-action opportunities to keep defenses off balance. That run-game strength is now gone. Also new is TCU transfer quarterback Chandler Morris, while leading receiver Ja'Mori Maclin transferred to Kentucky.
Morris had a challenging season in 2023, where he was limited by injuries, including a sprained MCL that forced him to miss significant time. His 2023 injury limitations and missed time could affect a season opener with such a high total, especially with missing key offensive parts.
South Alabama is also without its top running back and has a new quarterback and top receiver. If I like an OVER, I want to be sure both offenses can produce. With both squads having more questions than answers, this total is too high based on last year's offensive successes.
Week 1 best bet: Western Kentucky at Alabama OVER 59.5
Kalen DeBoer says Alabama is confident in its preparation and doesn't expect to miss a beat against Western Kentucky in his Tide coaching debut.
I love air raid offenses. Western Kentucky runs exactly that, known for its high volume of passing plays and quick tempo. The Hilltoppers averaged over 70 plays per game in 2023, showcasing their ability to maintain a fast pace that can lead to high-scoring outcomes. I expect no different with Texas State transfer quarterback TJ Finley. Last season, Finley threw for 3,439 yards and 24 touchdowns, showing his ability to manage the offense effectively.
The Hilltoppers return two of their top three receivers who will be reliable targets downfield. Leading back Elijah Young also returns and poses a threat in the passing game, catching 20 passes for 247 yards and three touchdowns. His versatility adds another dimension to the offense.
Western Kentucky's defense is weak, ranked 108th out of 133 teams in total yards allowed last season. Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe and company will have a field day. As a dual-threat quarterback, Milroe brings both passing and rushing capabilities to Alabama's offense. Bama did lose some top talent, but it's the Crimson Tide in the SEC, and I have no doubt that the talent coming in will fit just fine with new coach Kalen DeBoer leading the charge.
Alabama might have an SEC defense, but they are not immune to high-scoring affairs, putting up 56 points against Middle Tennessee and scoring 40-plus points in five games last year. Don't be surprised if Milroe and the Bama offense put up 56 on their own against this defense.