Stuart Broad believes the second Test between England and Australia, a day-night game in Brisbane which will be played with a pink ball, is likely to be a "bit of a lottery" that could be determined by the toss.
England will go to the Gabba 1-0 down and looking for a way back into the Ashes, having not played a pink-ball Test since early 2023. England's record in day-night Tests is played seven, lost five, won two, while two of their likely XI - Jamie Smith and Gus Atkinson - have never played a first-class game with the pink ball.
Australia, meanwhile, have won 13 out of 14 (although their one defeat came against West Indies in Brisbane last year).
"We know the pink-ball Test, having played a few ourselves, is a bit of a lottery," Broad said on the For The Love of Cricket podcast. "Ultimately the best team generally wins Test matches but this one, it's on a bit more of a knife edge of conditions."
Broad played in all seven of England's pink-ball Tests to date, including victory against New Zealand at Mount Maunganui in 2022-23 and both games on the 2021-22 tour of Australia.
All three of those Tests were won by the side batting first, with England declaring their first innings at Bay Oval nine down in the 59th over in order to bowl at New Zealand as the floodlights took effect.
"If you can get a brand-new ball under the floodlights at the Gabba, you should be taking wickets and you can break the game open," Broad said. "It is all about timing a little bit of when you bowl with the brand-new ball.
"That is why I don't like bowling first in pink-ball cricket because you bowl with a brand-new ball in daylight and it doesn't do a lot. By the time you get to the twilight period the ball is 60 overs old and doesn't do anything - and the new ball comes too late in the day.
"Winning the toss and batting is pretty crucial in the pink-ball Test in my opinion. That is my feeling in pink-ball cricket. It is going to be one hell of a challenge."
England produced two below-par batting efforts in the first Test at Perth, bowled out for 172 and 164 across just 67.3 overs. However, they may have to grasp the nettle if given the choice in Brisbane, where they will come up against the most-prolific pink-ball bowler in Test history in Mitchell Starc.
"That's why I think it is quite important to bat first because even if you are bowled out by tea when it's starting to go dark, you have a brand-new ball under lights. And if you bat well you can control when you bowl in the game and in the day."