India's 2-0 series defeat against South Africa has seriously dented their chances of making the World Test Championship final. Halfway into their 2025-27 cycle - India have played nine out of 18 Tests - they are languishing in fifth place on the table, at 48.15%.
It's still early days for many of the other teams - New Zealand haven't played a single series yet, Sri Lanka and Pakistan have played one, and England have just started their second - but with Australia (100%) and South Africa (75%) having begun so strongly, India will have to do much more in the second half of their campaign to stand a chance of finishing in the top two.
Going by the numbers from the last two WTC cycles, teams will need to be in the 60-65% range to stand a chance of making the cut. In the 2021-23 cycle, India qualified as the second team for the final with a percentage of 58.8, while Australia's 67.54% won them second place in the previous edition.
For India to get to 60%, they need to finish on 130 points, since they're playing 18 Tests in this cycle (18 x 12 points = 216). Teams earn 12 points for a win, and four points for a draw. So India need 78 more points from their remaining nine Tests - two each in Sri Lanka and New Zealand, and five at home against Australia. They can get there in at least two ways, assuming they aren't docked any points:
- six wins and a couple of draws: 6 x 12 + 2 x 4 = 80
- seven wins: 7 x 12 = 84
Before they take on Australia early in 2027 in their next home Test series, India have two-match series lined up in Sri Lanka (in August 2026) and New Zealand (October-November 2026). India have an excellent recent record in Sri Lanka, winning five of their last six Tests there (though the last tour was in 2017), but New Zealand has been a much tougher to crack: they lost 2-0 in 2020 and 1-0 in 2014. Even if India win all four of those Tests, they will probably still go into the series against Australia needing plenty of points to finish among the top two.
Australia have made a terrific start to their WTC campaign with four wins out of four. With six home Tests against Bangladesh and New Zealand lined up in this cycle, they have an excellent chance of making another final, and accumulating most of the points they need for it before the tour of India begins.
South Africa are well-placed too, with three wins from four Tests in two away series. Their only remaining overseas series in this cycle is against Sri Lanka in February 2027. Their home games won't be easy, though, with six Tests against Australia and England, apart from two against Bangladesh. If they win both home Tests against Bangladesh, they will only need 41 points from their eight remaining Tests to finish at 60%.
Some of the other teams could come into contention too as the cycle progresses - only 17 out of 71 matches have been played so far in this edition - but regardless of how the other teams perform, India's home defeats could seriously hurt their prospects in this cycle, just as they did in the previous one.