India's 30-run loss to South Africa in Kolkata has evoked strong reactions from home fans and pundits, and not without reason: this is India's fourth defeat in their last six home Tests. In October-November 2024, they had lost 3-0 to New Zealand; only a 2-0 series win against a weak West Indies line-up separates those defeats from this one.
Clearly, this is an unusual occurrence for India, who have not been used to losing at home over the last several years. Before this wretched run over the last 13 months, their previous sequence of four home losses spanned 28 Test matches, or seven years from February 2017 to January 2024.
After the last of those defeats, against England in Hyderabad, India won six Tests on the trot going into that horrific New Zealand series. That means, in their last 34 home Tests before hosting New Zealand, India had a 25-4 win-loss record, the best among all teams at home in that period.
From there, they have slumped to a 2-4 win-loss record at home in the last 13 months, their worst stretch at home in 53 years: the last time they lost four in a six-game sequence was way back in the 1969-72 period, against Australia and England.
That wouldn't have felt half as disastrous though, as India were nowhere near as strong a team then, even at home - they only had a 5-4 win-loss record from their previous 25 home Tests. Moreover, the last of those four defeats in the six-game sequence came three years after the fifth: India didn't host a single Test between January 1970 and November 1972.
So what has gone wrong for India at home over the last year?
Wretched luck with the toss
To start with, the coin hasn't fallen India's way: they lost the toss in three of those four defeats and had to bat last in increasingly difficult conditions - in Pune and Mumbai against New Zealand, and at Eden Gardens last week. One of those defeats was when they won the toss, in Bengaluru, but they misread the conditions horribly, opted to bat first, and got bundled out for 46. There was no coming back from that debacle, even though they scored 462 in their second innings.
Losing the toss and bowling first has denied the India batters the opportunity to capitalise on conditions when they are usually more favourable for run-scoring. However, that still doesn't explain the recent capitulation. In the period between February 2017 to September 2024, India lost the toss and fielded first 16 times, but still managed an excellent 11-3 record in those games, including 7-3 in 12 matches against Australia and England. Even in short matches, like the one at Eden Gardens, losing the toss still didn't hurt them: they had an 8-1 record in home matches which didn't go beyond 270 overs.
Collapse after collapse
In those 12 Tests against Australia and England when the opposition won the toss and batted, India averaged 368 in their first innings (the second innings of the match), and took the lead eight times, including six instances by over 90 runs. That ensured they neutralised the disadvantage of losing the toss, though they did go on to lose one of those matches - against England in Hyderabad in 2024 - after taking a 190-run first-innings lead.
In their last three such defeats, though, India have failed to put up a strong first-innings total to neutralise the toss effect: their average total has reduced to 203, and while they have taken the lead a couple of times, they have been small ones - 28 runs against New Zealand in Mumbai, and 30 in Kolkata against South Africa.
A small lead, or a deficit, has meant a challenging fourth-innings target, and India have floundered there too. Since the start of 2024, they have failed three out of five times in home Tests when chasing targets between 100 and 249. Between 1995 and 2023, there were 16 instances when India faced targets in this range at home - they won 14 times and drew twice.
Problems against spin, problems against pace
At Eden Gardens, India's batters were undone against both spin and pace: they lost 12 wickets to spin at an average of 13.25, and six to pace at 17.33. It wasn't too different versus New Zealand last year, when they averaged 23.43 against spin (37 dismissals), and 18.50 against pace (20 dismissals).
Comparing the batting stats for India and their opponents against pace and spin in these four Tests indicates that the opposition batters have done better against both bowling types.
In the series against New Zealand, there was little to choose between the two teams' numbers versus spin - India's batters averaged 23.43 against New Zealand's spinners, while the New Zealand batters averaged 23.86 against India's spinners.
The difference was huge for pace. India averaged 18.50 to New Zealand's 44.71 - but that was skewed by the Bengaluru Test, where New Zealand's seamers took 17 out of 20 wickets.
In these recent home defeats for India, the big surprise has been the fact that opposition spinners have matched - and even marginally outbowled - India's.
In the five years leading up to the New Zealand series, India's spinners averaged 19.53 at home, compared to 34 by opposition spinners in India.
Over the last year, that spin advantage has been obliterated, thanks largely to Ajaz Patel, Mitchell Santner and Simon Harmer. Collectively, those three bowlers have taken 36 wickets at 15.69. That has resulted in a team going from near-unbeatable to very fallible. Can India stem the rot in Guwahati?
With inputs from Shiva Jayaraman and Sampath Bandarupalli