With their four-run win against India, England have become the third team after Australia and South Africa to confirm their place in the semi-finals of the women's World Cup 2025. There are now eight league games remaining, with five teams fighting for the last spot in the knockouts. Here are the scenarios for the teams in the race.
India - Matches 5, Wins 2, Points 4, NRR 0.526
If India beat New Zealand and Bangladesh, they will finish on eight points and will make it to the semi-finals. They will, however, have to keep an eye on other results if they win only one of their next two games. If India's third win of the tournament comes against New Zealand, they need to ensure their net run-rate is healthy enough to be ahead of Bangladesh, who could also finish with three wins if they beat Sri Lanka and India.
A washout against New Zealand can also be a good result for India, even if they lose to Bangladesh (and New Zealand lose to England), unless one of Sri Lanka and Pakistan don't end up with six points.
If both of India's games in Navi Mumbai get washed out, they will qualify for the semi-finals, but only if England beat New Zealand. If one of Sri Lanka and Pakistan are tied on six points with India in the aforementioned scenario, India will progress with a better net run-rate.
New Zealand - Matches 5, Wins 1, Points 4, NRR -0.245
New Zealand's next match against India will be an all-or-nothing game for them, and a loss will end their World Cup campaign. If they win both their next two games, New Zealand will make it to the semi-finals.
If New Zealand beat India but lose to England, they will have to hope Bangladesh beat India, but after losing to Sri Lanka. Even a washout in the game between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh will be a positive result for New Zealand in the above scenario.
Sri Lanka can finish with six points if they defeat Bangladesh and Pakistan, while Pakistan can finish on six if they beat South Africa and Sri Lanka. But New Zealand have a better net run-rate. However, if Bangladesh beat Sri Lanka, New Zealand will have to hope for a washout in Navi Mumbai when India face Bangladesh.
New Zealand will make the semi-finals irrespective of other results if they beat India and their match against England gets washed out. A washout against India will be good for New Zealand only if they defeat England and India don't bag two points against Bangladesh. They can progress to the semi-finals if both their remaining games are washed out, but only if none of India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan get to six points.
Bangladesh - Matches 5, Wins 1, Points 2, NRR -0.676
Bangladesh still have an outside chance of reaching the semi-finals. They will need to win their next two matches, against Sri Lanka and India, and hope England do them a favour by defeating New Zealand. If New Zealand also beat India and finish on six points, then Bangladesh will be through by virtue of more wins.
If both India and New Zealand finish on six points, then Bangladesh have to look at winning big in their last two games, as their net run-rate is well behind India's.
Sri Lanka and Pakistan - Matches 5, Wins 0, Points 2 (NRR -1.564 and -1.887)
Despite having no wins so far, both Sri Lanka and Pakistan are still in the race for the semi-finals.
Sri Lanka have to win their remaining two matches against Pakistan and Bangladesh and hope India lose both their remaining games. They will also need England to beat New Zealand on the last day of the league stage.
Sri Lanka will be tied on six points with New Zealand in the above scenario, but will be behind on net run-rate if they don't win big in their remaining matches.
The same is true for Pakistan, who will have to win their last two games, against South Africa and Sri Lanka, by margins that take their net run-rate ahead of New Zealand's.