Jasprit Bumrah will not play the fifth and final Test of the Anderson-Tendulkar Trophy at The Oval starting Thursday. ESPNcricinfo has learned that the BCCI medical team has told Bumrah that the decision is in line with safeguarding his back and keeping the long-term in mind.
The development is not entirely a surprise, considering the medical team in coordination with Bumrah, the Indian team management, and the selectors had decided he would play only three of the five Tests during the England tour. Bumrah played in the first Test at Headingley, sat out in the second Test at Edgbaston, which India won, and played in the following two Tests at Lord's and last week at Old Trafford.
With Bumrah having not bowled since the fourth morning at Old Trafford, coupled with a three-day break between the final two Tests, India might have toyed with the idea of changing the original plan, especially with a possibility of levelling the series 2-2 with a win at The Oval.
However, a combination of a slowish, flat surface and the workload had impacted Bumrah's pace in the fourth Test. He picked two wickets in 33 overs, which was the most he has bowled in an innings, and for the first time, his runs column had breached 100. As the series progressed, the number of balls he bowled above 140kph in the first innings of each Test also reduced from 42.7% at Headingley to 22.3% at Lord's to 0.5% at Old Trafford.
Bumrah is currently the joint-second-highest wicket-taker with 14 wickets in the series alongside Mohammed Siraj. After the draw in Manchester, India's head coach Gautam Gambhir had said Bumrah was available for the final Test, but two days later, India have decided to rest him.
Akash Deep likely to replace Bumrah
Who will replace Bumrah was evident at India's optional training session on Tuesday. Akash Deep, who missed the fourth Test with a groin niggle, found his rhythm easily as he seamed the ball appreciably on the greenish practice pitches. In the second Test at Edgbaston, which was his first Test since Melbourne in December, Akash Deep picked up a ten-wicket match haul, including a career-best 6 for 99 in England's second innings, extracting movement from a benign surface.
In the following Test at Lord's, though, Akash struggled for consistency, especially bowling down the slope from the Pavilion End. He picked up just one wicket in the Test, but the seamer-friendly conditions at The Oval could help Akash get back in the saddle quickly.
Still, Gill and Gambhir will have to deal with finding the right balance in the bowling attack. That it is a challenge is primarily because of the below-par performances from three other fast bowlers who have featured so far in the series: Prasidh Krishna, Shardul Thakur and Anshul Kamboj. Prasidh has not played since the win in the second Test, while Thakur and Kamboj barely got to bowl after their first spells at Old Trafford.
In the absence of Bumrah, Siraj, the only fast bowler to play all the Tests, will once again lead the pace attack. Siraj has bowled the fourth-most overs among seamers this series - 139 - but hasn't let his intensity down. India will be worried about his workload and fitness but they have little choice other than playing Siraj. Even then, India will have to make a call regarding the third seamer.
"Picking 20 wickets has to be India's main goal," reckons Sanjay Manjrekar
It is likely to be one of Prasidh and Arshdeep Singh, who bowled and batted without any discomfort, showing he had recovered completely from the freak injury he picked up on his bowling hand in the days leading to the fourth Test while trying to intercept a ball on follow-through.
With Rishabh Pant ruled out of the Oval Test, Dhruv Jurel will keep wickets and bat in the middle order. Despite the boldness of his batting, which can turn eyes, Jurel's inexperience, especially of playing in England, might tilt India to focus on retaining Thakur to provide the batting depth. That would mean there will be no room once again for Kuldeep Yadav.
India might also believe Kuldeep could be surplus to the requirement, especially keeping in mind the pitch and the cloudy conditions that are likely to play a role during the Test. Two days ahead of the match, the pitch had enough greenish patches, so India could continue with the spin pair of Ravindra Jadeja and Washington Sundar.
Apart from that, the bowling numbers at The Oval this domestic season are predominantly favourable to the seamers: fast bowlers have picked up 131 of the 150 wickets in five matches. Surrey have won twice at home with three draws, including the last round against Durham, where the fourth-highest score in county cricket was registered. Surrey made 820 for 9 declared on the back of Dom Sibley's triple-hundred, but that match was played with Kookaburra balls as part of the ECB's drive since last year to upgrade the bowlers' skills.