Afghanistan's win over England means it's now a three-way battle for semi-final qualification from Group B, with two games to go. Australia (three points, NRR 0.475) take on Afghanistan (two points, NRR -0.99) in Lahore on Friday, while South Africa (three points, NRR 2.14) face England (already eliminated) on Saturday. Here's an explainer on who will qualify based on those two results.
If Australia and South Africa win
Australia and South Africa will qualify with five points each. The top spot in the group will be decided by the win margins, with South Africa favourites to finish first, given their comprehensive win over Afghanistan. Assuming a one-run win for South Africa after scoring 300, Australia need to win by 87 runs (with the same first-innings total) to go past South Africa's NRR.
If Australia and England win
Australia will top the group with five points, while South Africa will still finish second on three.
If Afghanistan and South Africa win
South Africa will top with five points, while Afghanistan, with four points, will finish second ahead of Australia.
If Afghanistan and England win
Afghanistan will finish on top with four points. The second place will then go to either Australia or South Africa, who will both finish on three points. South Africa are well ahead on NRR currently, which means they will have to suffer a big loss to England for Australia to move ahead on NRR. So, if Australia lose by just one run after Afghanistan score 300, South Africa will have lose by 87 chasing the same target for their NRR to slip below Australia's.
If Afghanistan vs Australia is washed out
There's a possibility of showers in Lahore on Friday. If points are shared in that game, Australia will go up to four points and will be assured of qualification.
If South Africa beat England, they will top the group with five points, but if England win, then South Africa and Afghanistan will finish on three points each, which will bring NRR into the equation. Afghanistan (NRR -0.99) will almost certainly be eliminated then, as they need South Africa to lose by at least 207 runs (chasing 301) to move up to second place and qualify.