India have given their World Cup campaign a shot in the arm by registering an 82-run win over Sri Lanka. Their net run rate (NRR) had taken a beating after their 58-run loss to New Zealand in the opening game and hadn't improved by much after a relatively close win against Pakistan. But after their win against Sri Lanka - their biggest in terms of runs at the T20 World Cup - it has leapfrogged from -1.217 to +0.576. While this doesn't change the fact that they'll have to beat Australia to give themselves the best chance to qualify for the last four, it should give them some breathing space if it comes down to NRR.
The easiest path for India will be to beat Australia and hope both New Zealand and Pakistan lose at least one of their two remaining matches. India will then qualify on points without having to rely on NRR. India can also go through to the semis on points in the unlikely event that Australia lose both their remaining matches. In that event, only one other team between New Zealand and Pakistan can make it to six points.
If India beat Australia in their last league game, a three-way tie with Australia and New Zealand on six points is a possibility. While India will do well to defeat the defending champions even by the smallest of margins, a narrow win for India will keep New Zealand interested. For example, if India win by a margin of just one run, New Zealand would need to win their two remaining matches against Sri Lanka and Pakistan by a combined margin of approximately 38 runs to go past India's NRR. If India win by a margin of 10 runs then this combined margin increases to approximately 48 runs. New Zealand have the advantage of playing the last league game, against Pakistan, and will know the exact equation by then.
India could qualify with four points even if they lose to Australia provided both Pakistan and New Zealand lose at least one of their remaining matches. Obviously, India need to make sure that the margin of defeat is as small as possible. It will then come down to NRR between the teams. The 82-run win against Sri Lanka could come in very handy in that scenario.
This article was updated after India's game against Sri Lanka on Wednesday.