After their Super Eight win against West Indies on Sunday, South Africa captain Aiden Markram said South Africa were yet to play their best cricket. So, beware Afghanistan. They are, of course, in unfamiliar territory, while it's a stage that South Africa have usually stumbled at. Come match day, these are the key contests that might influence the outcome.
The toss factor: make Afghanistan chase
Four of Afghanistan's five wins at the T20 World Cup 2024 have come batting first.
On three of those occasions, the opposition put them in. Uganda, New Zealand and Australia all opted to chase. And Afghanistan elected to bat against Bangladesh on Tuesday in Kingstown.
But Afghanistan have lost two matches where they have fielded first: against West Indies after winning the toss, and against India, who elected to bat.
The solitary match they won fielding first came against Papua New Guinea, which, incidentally, was played in Tarouba, the venue for the semi-final.
South Africa, the only team apart from India to be undefeated at the World Cup so far, have won four times batting first and three times chasing. Don't be surprised if Afghanistan are asked to chase if South Africa win the toss.
South Africa can't let Gurbaz-Ibrahim flourish
No opening pair at this World Cup has scored more runs than Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Ibrahim Zadran, who are also first and third, respectively, on the list of leading run-scorers in the tournament. The two 22-year-olds, friends from their Under-19 days, have aggregated 442 runs at an average of nearly 74, which is the highest among all teams for the opening wicket - Jos Buttler and Phil Salt, who have compiled 286 runs at an average of 57.20, come a distant second.
The Afghanistan openers have stitched together three 100-plus stands and a fifty-plus partnership, and between them have scored nearly half (46.3%) the runs (954) Afghanistan have scored in this World Cup.
Gurbaz usually does the power-hitting early on, while Ibrahim provides stability at the other end. Gurbaz, though, hurt his left knee while keeping against Bangladesh and limped out. If he misses out, South Africa's job might become easier. And if he does recover in time, South Africa will have to find a way to break Afghanistan's batting spine quickly.
Can Afghanistan stop de Kock?
Quinton de Kock is South Africa's in-form batter and the enforcer, a role he played to perfection against England in their Super Eight contest. Since 2022, though, de Kock averages 21.60 against offspin at a strike rate of 105.88. Rashid has asked his senior team-mate Mohammed Nabi to bowl in the powerplay frequently, and against de Kock, he could be deployed as a favourable match-up. While Nabi hasn't got the better of de Kock yet in T20 cricket, he has given away only 32 runs in 28 balls.
South Africa's batting numbers in the powerplay are among the poorest this tournament: not only have they lost the most wickets (15) in the phase, their run rate of 6.73 is nearly three points behind England's 9.49. Their average of 18.76 is also among the lowest. Afghanistan will look to mount pressure from both ends, combining Nabi with Fazalhaq Farooqi, the tournament's leading wicket-taker who also has the most powerplay wickets in all T20s in 2024.
Alternate route to get de Kock: go around
Jofra Archer and Tanzim Hasan Sakib went around the wicket to force mistakes from de Kock. Against England, he was caught behind trying to play at a delivery wide outside off, while against Bangladesh he played on.
As the graphic below shows, since 2022, de Kock has been susceptible against the around-the-wicket line of attack, often lured into playing away from his body and/or falling when trying to slash hard.
His problem becomes glaring if you look at the first ten balls of his innings. In the same period and same matches, in 30 innings, de Kock has been dismissed six times in 82 balls bowled from around the stumps, and has scored just 77 runs at a strike rate of 93.90 and an average of just under 13.
In the same period, in the first ten balls he has faced bowled from over the wicket, he has been dismissed 12 times in 64 innings but has scored 436 runs in 313 balls at a strike rate of 139.30 and an average of 36.33.
Incidentally, Dwayne Bravo, who is Afghanistan's consultant, has had success against de Kock bowling around the wicket. So, don't be surprised if you see Naveen-ul-Haq, who had dismissed Travis Head using the same line, attacking de Kock from around the stumps.
How will South Africa counter Rashid?
Most of South Africa's top-order batters - de Kock, Markram, Heinrich Klaasen, David Miller and Tristan Stubbs - have not managed to dominate Rashid in T20Is. Barring Stubbs, whose sample size is low - he has faced nine deliveries and taken 22 runs at a strike rate of 244.44 - no other South Africa batter has a strike rate of over 130 against Rashid in T20Is.
The significant duel will be between Miller and Rashid. Miller, South Africa's second-highest run-scorer in the tournament, ranks among the top finishers in T20 cricket and has been striking at nearly 150 since the start of 2022 against legspin. However, Rashid, who is Miller's team-mate at Gujarat Titans in the IPL since 2022, has had a significant upper hand against him. Miller has scored just 50 runs off 42 balls against Rashid in all T20s while striking at 119.04 and has been dismissed four times.
Rashid will be on the prowl along with Nabi and Noor Ahmad with the trio bowling a majority of the overs in the middle phase.
Maharaj, South Africa's X-factor
Keshav Maharaj scripted one of the moments of this World Cup when he defended ten runs off the final over of the match against Bangladesh in New York. Even though he got lucky, going unpunished despite slipping consecutive full tosses of the last two balls of the over, Maharaj was resolute and courageous, picking two wickets. Both batters - Jaker Ali and Mahmudullah - were right-handers. In fact, all nine wickets South Africa's lead spinner has taken this tournament have been of right-hand batters.
Maharaj will look forward to bowling against Afghanistan, whose batting is made up almost entirely of right-hand batters - Hazratullah Zazai played just one game, against India, while Najibullah Zadran played the group-stage matches but hasn't featured since the India game.