It is no surprise that Pakistan have had to scramble a fair bit at the last moment in this World Cup.
The loss of Naseem Shah just before the World Cup has been huge, and leaves Shaheen Shah Afridi and Haris Rauf as lesser bowlers. Then Afridi, who is renowned for making an early impact with the ball, hasn't found any swing in this tournament. In fact the average swing and seam available in this tournament has been slightly less than it was in all ODI cricket earlier this year, but it has still been higher than the average swing and seam in the last World Cup. There have been three venues that have clearly offered above-average seam and swing - Delhi, Lucknow and Ahmedabad - which has offset the low assistance for seam bowlers in six other venues, with Kolkata just entering the fray.
Some teams feel it is the new batch of balls, some feel it is the dry squares, which have also scuffed up the ball sooner than usual, and some feel it is just the time of the year. Whatever may be the cause, Pakistan fast bowlers, the team's strength, have had to veer a fair way off their plans. Their spinners are what they are, which puts extra pressure on the seam bowlers to take wickets, which means they have had to venture into attacking lengths often rather than banging away consistently at the hard lengths that have been working in this World Cup.
While that allowance can reasonably be made, there is another aspect of Pakistan's game that has been lagging for a while and has been shown up once again in this World Cup. Their batters lack the power game that makes ODI sides dynamic. A great pace attack and steady batters can work in Tests, but in limited-overs cricket, batters need to do some heavy lifting. With two new balls, an extra fielder inside the circle in overs 11 to 40, and the game moving forward, this part of the game is difficult to make allowances for.
Pakistan have steady batters, but none of them strikes fear in the heart of oppositions. Even Babar Azam hasn't shown the range of some of the other No. 3s although it not easy to do so in a batting line-up that is easy to keep quiet.
The numbers don't make for good reading. In this World Cup, only Afghanistan, Netherlands and Bangladesh have consumed more balls per boundary and scored a smaller percentage of their runs in boundaries than Pakistan. You limit it to six-hitting, and these are the only three teams behind them. These are also the only teams that have taken a smaller percentage of their overs for 12 or more runs. When batting first, only India have made boundary attempts to a smaller percentage of deliveries, but they have batted first only once and in extremely tough batting conditions.
This has been a World Cup where the new ball has been attacked more than ever, but Pakistan have the fourth-worst run-rate in the first powerplay. No team has made boundary attempts to a smaller percentage of deliveries in the first powerplay than Pakistan.
Among the 26 batters who have scored 500 runs or more between this World Cup and the last one at an average of over 40 and strike-rate of over 90, Babar is the only Pakistan player. There is no Pakistan batter among the 12 who have scored at better than a run a ball. Their two regular openers, Imam-ul-Haq and Fakhar Zaman, are among the top 26 run-getters in this period, but their strike-rates are under 90. Of the openers playing this World Cup, only two have gone slower than Imam's 84.41 per 100 balls. Between World Cups, Fakhar and Imam struck at 76.69 and 73.4 in the first powerplay. Fakhar, who is played for his deceptive ability to strike hard that doesn't show in these numbers, has lost form and made way for Abdullah Shafique, a rare silver lining for Pakistan in this tournament.
Such back-loading can work for a side such as South Africa, one of the teams slower than Pakistan in the first powerplay in this World Cup, but not for Pakistan because they have only two batters who have scored faster than a run a ball between the World Cups: Iftikhar Ahmed and Shadab Khan. Their body of work is small, though, with neither scoring 500 runs in this period. Iftikhar's strike-rates against India and Australia have been in the 60s.
This is perhaps what Grant Bradburn, Pakistan's coach, referred to when he said that when he took over, the team was playing "a gear or two" below what is required to win "against quality teams". Bradburn said Pakistan have looked to correct that but he and his coaching team took charge only six months ago.
If they do get to continue after this World Cup, they will need to determine whether this is a problem of intent or of skill. It is practically the same problem that they have in T20Is where too many top-order batters anchor up. In T20Is, their bowlers can somewhat make up for it, but in ODIs they get stretched. The pressure on the fast bowlers is unfair, and the spin department needs a look into.
It is possible there is skill but Pakistan don't play the modern sides as often as they would like, and are thus not pushed enough to go harder. Still, the top three have to look at where the game is going and evolve with it. They have to get comfortable doing this, and the coaches and selectors have to make them comfortable, giving them the leeway to fail occasionally while making that effort. Perhaps it needs to start with the best batter of the lot: Babar.