With one week and three top-10 matchups in the books, we've already done some significant shuffling in our bowl projections.
The most noteworthy change is Alabama dropping out of the College Football Playoff field after a lackluster loss to Florida State. The Seminoles, on the other hand, saw their stock soar.
As in last season's inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year's Six bowls, with this season's national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We're here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we'll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
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Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Miami
Bonagura: No. 11 Arizona State at No. 6 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 10 Clemson at No. 7 Texas
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State at No. 7 Clemson
Bonagura: No. 9 Utah at No. 8 Florida State
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Texas
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: Last year, Utah had a national-championship-caliber defense to go along with an offense that probably made coach Kyle Whittingham wish, at times, that he had retired before the season started. With an average offense, the Utes would have been serious Big 12 title contenders. Enter offensive coordinator Jason Beck and quarterback Devon Dampier, and not only did the Utes show a competent offense in their Week 1 win against UCLA, they flashed a unit that looks on track to be among the best in the conference. That combination was enough to convince me the Utes deserve a playoff spot this week, with a full understanding that the data we have is still far too little to pretend we have a real sense of anything. Anyway, stock up for Utah.
Beyond the Utes, the other big risers are Tulane and Florida State, both of which turned in impressive opening wins -- Tulane against Northwestern, Florida State against Alabama -- to start their seasons off on positive notes.
Schlabach: I'm not going to overreact to season-opening losses for Texas, Notre Dame and Clemson, which faced three difficult tests. Clemson lost star receiver Antonio Williams to a hamstring injury on the second possession against LSU, which undoubtedly hurt the Tigers on offense. Clemson's offensive line has to play better, and the Tigers need to find a running game to take some pressure off quarterback Cade Klubnik.
As far as the Longhorns, it wasn't a great starting debut for quarterback Arch Manning, but were we all expecting too much from him? Facing defending national champion Ohio State in the Horseshoe would have been a tall task for anyone, let alone a first-time starter. I think Manning will be fine in the long run, as well as the Longhorns as a whole. Notre Dame put up an admirable fight at Miami, rallying from a 21-7 deficit in the fourth quarter to tie the score at 24. Freshman CJ Carr played well in his first start and gave the Irish some building blocks to work with.
Tulane gets my Group of 5 automatic bid after Boise State was steamrolled 34-7 at South Florida on Thursday. I thought the Broncos would miss star tailback Ashton Jeanty, but not quite that much. That's the kind of loss that's going to be difficult for the Broncos to erase.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 5 Miami vs. No. 4 Georgia
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 LSU
Schlabach: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Penn State
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Florida State vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State vs. No. 2 LSU
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: Florida State's fall from a 13-0 regular season in 2023 to 2-10 in 2024 was an unprecedented collapse. And now, after beating Alabama in Week 1, the foundation has been laid for a similar rebound. More than anything, it speaks to how quickly a program can change in this era of college football. After the Seminoles, the other teams currently slotted in the quarterfinals are the usual suspects. This is a round that will see a lot of shuffling all the way up until December.
Schlabach: Ohio State gets my No. 1 seed after its 14-7 victory over the Longhorns The Buckeyes will have to continue to get better on offense as quarterback Julian Sayin becomes more comfortable. But, man, what a debut for new defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who pushed all of the right buttons in slowing down Texas.
LSU's revamped defense might have made the biggest statement of the weekend, shutting out Clemson in the second half and limiting it to only 32 rushing yards. Star linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. looked fully healthy after tearing the ACL in his left knee last season, and a handful of transfer portal additions such as cornerback Mansoor Delane, defensive ends Jack Pyburn and Patrick Payton and tackle Bernard Gooden were as good as advertised.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 LSU
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Penn State vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: Ohio State has to be the favorite now, right? When the defending champion beats the preseason No. 1 (Texas), it feels like the logical choice. It wasn't a comprehensive win for the Buckeyes, but Ohio State's defense is elite and there is enough talent on offense to assume they'll get things going soon enough. LSU's win over Clemson was another big one from Week 1 as LSU made a statement about where it should be slotted in at this early stage of the season.
Schlabach: Once again, I have the top four seeds advancing to the CFP semifinals, and last season showed the odds are stacked against that happening. Georgia-Ohio State would be a great matchup of young quarterbacks and bruising defenses. The Bulldogs didn't get much of a fight from rebuilding Marshall, but quarterback Gunner Stockton made big plays with his arms and legs. In the other semi, Penn State's Drew Allar and LSU's Garrett Nussmeier are regarded as two of the top quarterbacks available for next year's NFL draft. The Nittany Lions have upgraded their receiver corps, and Trebor Pena (Syracuse) and Kyron Hudson (USC) showed some good things in a 46-11 win over Nevada.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Southern vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Oregon State vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Cal vs. Boise State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Eastern Michigan
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Troy
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Alabama vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Boston College
Schlabach: Missouri vs. Virginia
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Rice vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Western Kentucky
Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Marshall vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Sam Houston State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. North Texas
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Navy
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Arkansas State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Memphis
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Memphis
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Illinois
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Virginia vs. Navy
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Florida
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. BYU
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Arizona State
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Hawai'i vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Colorado State vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Alabama
Kinder's Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Tennessee
Monday, Dec. 29
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Missouri vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Boston College
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Liberty
Schlabach: BYU vs. Liberty
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Ole Miss
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. USC
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. South Carolina
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Colorado
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Texas A&M
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Cal
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Oregon State
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Kansas vs. UTSA
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Florida
Schlabach: TCU vs. Oklahoma
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Duke vs. Florida
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Washington
Schlabach: SMU vs. Washington