Week 10 of the college football season saw quite a bit of shakeup. Clemson lost its first regular-season game since approximately 1943 (okay, 2017), falling without Trevor Lawrence to a spry Notre Dame in South Bend. Meanwhile, Florida ended Georgia's College Football Playoff hopes and positioned itself to end the Dawgs' three-year SEC East title streak with a 44-28 win in Jacksonville.
From a numbers standpoint, though, the most noticeable shift might have come up top. Ohio State handled Rutgers easily, 49-27, in Columbus on Saturday evening, but the bar for dominance is awfully high among the 99th-percentile teams. The Buckeyes' overall SP+ rating slipped just enough for idle Alabama to ease into the top spot for the first time all year. Does this really matter? No -- the Tide and Buckeyes still hold a solid advantage over anybody remaining on their respective schedules. But a new No. 1 is always noteworthy, even if it's a team that has spent large portions of the last 12 seasons in the top spot.
What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
More than ever, it's important to note that SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
Overall SP+ Rankings Team Rating Offense Defense Special Teams 1. Alabama (6-0) 28.4 46.8 (1) 18.6 (15) 0.2 (22) 2. Ohio St. (3-0) 28.0 45.1 (2) 16.9 (9) -0.3 (115) 3. Clemson (7-1) 26.9 43.0 (3) 16.3 (7) 0.2 (15) 4. Wisconsin (1-0) 25.7 38.3 (12) 12.6 (2) 0.0 (62) 5. Florida (4-1) 21.3 42.5 (5) 21.6 (27) 0.4 (4) 6. BYU (8-0) 19.8 39.5 (7) 20.0 (21) 0.3 (6) 7. Oregon (1-0) 19.6 35.3 (21) 15.6 (6) -0.1 (92) 8. Notre Dame (7-0) 19.2 36.4 (19) 17.3 (12) 0.1 (37) 9. Georgia (4-2) 19.1 30.8 (42) 12.1 (1) 0.4 (3) 10. Cincinnati (6-0) 19.1 34.0 (29) 15.0 (4) 0.0 (51) 11. Oklahoma (5-2) 17.7 43.0 (4) 25.3 (44) 0.0 (54) 12. N. Carolina (5-2) 17.2 42.3 (6) 24.9 (39) -0.2 (110) 13. Texas A&M (5-1) 16.4 37.7 (15) 21.4 (26) 0.1 (45) 14. Penn St. (0-3) 15.8 36.8 (18) 20.9 (24) -0.2 (103) 15. Washington (0-0) 15.3 32.5 (38) 17.2 (11) N/A 16. Iowa (1-2) 14.7 28.8 (65) 14.3 (3) 0.2 (25) 17. Oklahoma St. (5-1) 14.1 30.7 (44) 16.8 (8) 0.2 (17) 18. Michigan (1-2) 14.0 34.0 (30) 19.9 (19) -0.2 (104) 19. Iowa St. (5-2) 13.3 34.5 (25) 21.2 (25) -0.1 (91) 20. Va. Tech (4-3) 13.3 38.6 (10) 25.4 (46) 0.1 (34) 21. UCF (4-2) 12.5 39.4 (8) 26.8 (57) -0.1 (86) 22. Auburn (4-2) 12.3 32.9 (34) 20.8 (23) 0.2 (18) 23. Miami (6-1) 12.1 32.4 (39) 20.7 (22) 0.4 (2) 24. USC (1-0) 11.9 37.6 (16) 25.7 (48) 0.0 (67) 25. Utah (0-0) 11.9 36.1 (20) 24.3 (36) N/A 26. App. St. (5-1) 11.8 35.3 (22) 23.3 (32) -0.2 (100) 27. Arizona St. (0-1) 10.7 29.9 (51) 19.2 (17) 0.1 (31) 28. SMU (7-1) 10.4 37.8 (14) 27.4 (64) 0.0 (47) 29. Indiana (3-0) 10.2 34.1 (28) 24.1 (35) 0.2 (14) 30. Marshall (6-0) 9.8 27.9 (68) 18.1 (13) 0.0 (60) 31. Minnesota (1-2) 9.6 38.4 (11) 28.6 (75) -0.1 (90) 32. Texas (5-2) 9.6 34.8 (24) 25.3 (43) 0.1 (36) 33. Northwestern (3-0) 8.3 23.5 (103) 15.2 (5) 0.1 (33) 34. Nebraska (0-2) 7.6 34.3 (26) 26.6 (56) -0.1 (89) 35. Purdue (2-0) 7.1 34.3 (27) 27.2 (60) 0.0 (55) 36. UAB (4-3) 7.0 25.1 (91) 18.4 (14) 0.3 (7) 37. W. Virginia (4-3) 6.8 26.8 (74) 20.0 (20) -0.1 (79) 38. Coastal Caro. (7-0) 6.6 33.7 (32) 27.3 (62) 0.1 (28) 39. Pittsburgh (4-4) 6.5 25.0 (93) 18.7 (16) 0.2 (13) 40. Wash. St. (1-0) 6.5 39.0 (9) 32.5 (99) 0.1 (43) 41. Boise St. (2-1) 6.4 32.9 (35) 26.6 (55) 0.1 (27) 42. Louisville (2-5) 6.1 38.2 (13) 31.9 (94) -0.2 (108) 43. Army (6-1) 6.1 29.0 (60) 23.2 (31) 0.2 (10) 44. LSU (2-3) 5.8 33.8 (31) 28.4 (72) 0.5 (1) 45. Memphis (4-2) 5.6 34.8 (23) 29.4 (76) 0.2 (12) 46. Louisiana (6-1) 5.2 32.6 (37) 27.2 (61) -0.1 (93) 47. Ole Miss (2-4) 5.1 36.8 (17) 31.5 (90) -0.2 (111) 48. Liberty (7-0) 5.0 33.6 (33) 28.4 (73) -0.1 (97) 49. TCU (3-3) 3.2 25.3 (88) 22.2 (28) 0.0 (50) 50. Baylor (1-4) 3.2 27.4 (72) 24.0 (34) -0.2 (109) 51. Tulsa (3-1) 2.6 28.4 (66) 25.5 (47) -0.2 (114) 52. Boston Coll. (5-3) 2.5 30.8 (43) 28.2 (69) -0.1 (87) 53. California (0-0) 2.4 30.6 (47) 28.2 (68) N/A 54. Virginia (2-4) 2.3 29.0 (62) 26.6 (54) 0.0 (74) 55. Troy (4-3) 2.3 28.3 (67) 25.9 (50) -0.2 (107) 56. Kansas St. (4-3) 1.8 26.6 (80) 24.9 (41) 0.0 (56) 57. Tulane (4-4) 1.8 32.8 (36) 31.0 (88) 0.0 (49) 58. Kentucky (2-4) 1.2 23.9 (99) 23.0 (30) 0.3 (5) 59. Buffalo (1-0) 1.0 26.7 (76) 25.7 (49) 0.0 (78) 60. Arkansas (3-3) 0.8 26.1 (82) 25.0 (42) -0.3 (116) 61. San Diego St. (2-1) 0.8 17.7 (121) 16.9 (10) 0.0 (76) 62. Michigan St. (1-2) 0.7 20.3 (116) 19.4 (18) -0.2 (101) 63. Stanford (0-1) 0.7 29.3 (57) 28.5 (74) 0.0 (72) 64. Houston (2-3) 0.6 31.2 (40) 30.7 (84) 0.2 (23) 65. Tennessee (2-4) 0.5 24.2 (97) 23.8 (33) 0.2 (21) 66. Wake Forest (4-2) 0.4 26.4 (81) 26.1 (53) 0.1 (42) 67. Ga. Southern (5-2) 0.4 26.7 (78) 26.1 (52) -0.2 (113) 68. Maryland (2-1) 0.2 27.9 (69) 27.8 (66) 0.1 (30) 69. Colorado (1-0) 0.0 30.3 (50) 30.3 (80) 0.0 (59) 70. WMU (1-0) -0.3 30.6 (46) 31.0 (87) 0.1 (32) 71. NC St. (4-3) -0.4 29.8 (53) 30.5 (82) 0.3 (8) 72. Ga. Tech (2-5) -0.7 27.4 (71) 27.7 (65) -0.4 (119) 73. Nevada (3-0) -1.4 25.7 (84) 27.1 (59) 0.0 (46) 74. UCLA (0-1) -1.4 30.4 (48) 31.9 (93) 0.0 (61) 75. Missouri (2-3) -1.5 23.2 (104) 24.9 (40) 0.2 (19) 76. Wyoming (1-2) -1.7 22.8 (105) 24.6 (38) 0.1 (44) 77. Miss. St. (2-4) -1.8 25.2 (90) 27.1 (58) 0.1 (39) 78. Toledo (1-0) -1.9 29.1 (59) 30.9 (85) 0.0 (69) 79. S. Carolina (2-4) -2.0 25.5 (85) 27.4 (63) -0.1 (96) 80. FAU (3-1) -2.0 22.1 (109) 24.3 (37) 0.1 (26) 81. San Jose St. (3-0) -2.3 29.7 (54) 32.0 (95) 0.0 (57) 82. WKU (2-6) -2.7 20.0 (117) 22.9 (29) 0.2 (20) 83. Illinois (0-3) -3.0 25.1 (92) 28.3 (70) 0.2 (24) 84. CMU (1-0) -3.1 25.3 (89) 28.3 (71) 0.0 (64) 85. Florida St. (2-5) -3.3 26.7 (79) 29.9 (77) -0.1 (81) 86. Oregon St. (0-1) -3.5 29.0 (61) 32.5 (98) -0.1 (83) 87. Duke (2-6) -3.7 21.6 (112) 25.3 (45) 0.0 (71) 88. Ohio (0-1) -5.0 29.2 (58) 34.1 (104) 0.0 (75) 89. Texas Tech (2-5) -5.5 28.9 (63) 33.9 (103) -0.5 (123) 90. Charlotte (2-3) -5.8 29.8 (52) 35.4 (110) -0.2 (105) 91. So. Miss (2-5) -5.9 26.8 (75) 32.7 (100) 0.0 (65) 92. La. Tech (4-3) -6.2 24.8 (94) 31.0 (89) 0.0 (48) 93. Hawaii (2-1) -6.2 30.4 (49) 36.6 (115) -0.1 (82) 94. Air Force (1-2) -6.3 23.8 (102) 30.1 (78) 0.0 (58) 95. Colorado St. (1-1) -6.3 24.5 (95) 31.0 (86) 0.1 (29) 96. Fresno St. (2-1) -6.4 28.9 (64) 35.2 (108) -0.1 (95) 97. Arkansas St. (3-5) -6.7 31.1 (41) 37.4 (119) -0.3 (118) 98. N. Texas (2-3) -6.8 29.6 (55) 36.1 (114) -0.2 (112) 99. Ball St. (0-1) -7.2 26.7 (77) 33.9 (102) 0.0 (70) 100. Arizona (0-0) -7.4 30.6 (45) 38.0 (122) N/A 101. Georgia St. (3-3) -7.8 29.4 (56) 37.1 (117) -0.2 (106) 102. Miami-OH (1-0) -8.0 23.8 (100) 31.9 (92) 0.1 (38) 103. S. Alabama (3-4) -8.2 24.1 (98) 32.4 (96) 0.1 (40) 104. Rice (1-1) -8.2 17.8 (120) 26.0 (51) 0.0 (68) 105. Temple (1-4) -8.6 24.2 (96) 32.4 (97) -0.4 (120) 106. FIU (0-3) -8.7 21.8 (110) 30.4 (81) -0.1 (80) 107. Rutgers (1-2) -9.1 21.1 (113) 30.5 (83) 0.2 (16) 108. USF (1-6) -9.2 19.1 (118) 28.1 (67) -0.2 (102) 109. MTSU (2-5) -9.2 25.3 (87) 34.4 (105) -0.1 (94) 110. Syracuse (1-7) -9.4 20.4 (115) 30.1 (79) 0.2 (11) 111. Kent St. (1-0) -9.7 27.8 (70) 37.5 (120) 0.0 (77) 112. Navy (3-4) -9.9 25.9 (83) 35.8 (111) -0.1 (85) 113. UTSA (4-4) -10.5 22.7 (106) 33.4 (101) 0.2 (9) 114. ECU (1-5) -11.9 25.3 (86) 37.3 (118) 0.1 (41) 115. EMU (0-1) -13.7 27.3 (73) 41.1 (126) 0.0 (52) 116. Texas St. (1-8) -14.5 22.1 (108) 36.6 (116) -0.1 (84) 117. Utah St. (0-3) -15.1 20.9 (114) 35.9 (112) -0.1 (88) 118. New Mexico (0-2) -16.6 23.8 (101) 40.4 (124) 0.0 (66) 119. Kansas (0-7) -16.7 18.3 (119) 34.7 (106) -0.3 (117) 120. Vanderbilt (0-5) -16.7 15.6 (125) 31.9 (91) -0.4 (121) 121. NIU (0-1) -17.8 16.9 (123) 34.8 (107) 0.1 (35) 122. ULM (0-8) -18.4 21.7 (111) 39.6 (123) -0.5 (122) 123. UNLV (0-3) -18.8 22.2 (107) 41.0 (125) 0.0 (73) 124. UTEP (3-3) -18.8 16.6 (124) 35.2 (109) -0.1 (98) 125. Akron (0-1) -24.2 11.9 (127) 36.1 (113) 0.0 (63) 126. BGSU (0-1) -25.6 12.2 (126) 37.8 (121) 0.0 (53) 127. UMass (0-2) -30.6 17.0 (122) 47.5 (127) -0.1 (99)
