No. 11 UCLA | No. 13 Clemson | Top 25
No. 12: Notre Dame
Last Season: 8-5
Irish eye playoff run
Remember 2012? The season of 12-1? That amazing run to the BCS title game? The sharing of the national spotlight by Manti Te'o and Everett Golson? Forgotten in the middle of that feel-good story was coach Brian Kelly's repeated insistence that it might have been too much too soon, just the third year of his golden domed rebuilding project. Turns out he was right. The expectation level is South Bend has been high since Knute Rockne arrived in 1918. But the seasons since '12 -- 9-4 and 8-5 -- haven't woken up the echoes, they've cranked up the griping. "Being held to a higher standard is one of the reasons I'm here," the sixth-year coach said. "But our fans know how much work needed to be done. Now it's time to start benefiting from that work." They'll also benefit from the schedule that comes with their ACC semi-membership. Gone is old rival Michigan and last year's dramatic trip to FSU, replaced by UVA, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. Only three opponents from 2014 are on this season's calendar -- Navy, USC and Stanford. By the time the Irish visit Clemson on Oct. 3 those expectations will already either be back to unreasonably high or down to uncomfortably disappointed. Again. -- Ryan McGee
Notre Dame's schedule isn't easy-it never is-but the Irish return loads of experience: 17 starters and several key pieces back from yearlong absences, notably CB KeiVarae Russell (suspension) and LB Jarrett Grace (broken fibula). But this year, I tag ND as a 'dog only at Clemson (+3) and at Stanford (+6). Why the optimism? For one, I projected Malik Zaire QB1 on the heels of his impressive '14 bowl, so Everett Golson's departure is far from crippling. For another, with five top-15 units (RB, WR, DL, LB, DB), this squad is even stronger than the one that played for the 2012 national title.
IN IF...
Zaire develops as a passer. Opponents will expect him to take off running (six 10-plus-yard carries in five games last year), so minus the element of surprise, Zaire must polish his consistency and downfield accuracy.
OUT IF...
The defense trips up early, so beware of Georgia Tech. Navy's triple-option gave the Irish fits in '14 (season-high 336 rush yards allowed), and the Yellow Jackets could do more damage. No team can bank on a playoff spot with two losses, so falling to Georgia Tech in Week 3 would leave no room for error ... with Clemson, USC and Stanford still on the docket.
Notre Dame's chances to win each game
09.05 vs. Texas: 70.6%
09.12 @ Virginia: 79.4%
09.19 vs. Georgia Tech: 65.8%
09.26 vs. UMass: 95.5%
10.03 @ Clemson: 45.2%
10.10 vs. Navy: 93.1%
10.17 vs. USC: 49.6%
10.31 @ Temple: 69.8%
11.07 @ Pittsburgh: 65.3%
11.14 vs. Wake Forest: 94.0%
11.21 Boston College (Boston): 86.4%
11.28 @ Stanford: 40.8%*
*BROCK HUARD, ESPN analyst: The last three ND-Stanford tilts were won by a TD or less. Zaire's legs (96 rush yards against LSU in last year's bowl game) might be the trump card in a tight game.
SHARON KATZ, ESPN Stats & Info: Stanford has two aces of its own: FPI's sixth-best special teams and the game site (Palo Alto).
With so much experience returning on both sides of the ball, a playoff run is certainly in the realm of possibilities for Notre Dame. A 10-2 campaign seems reasonable, given a new QB, the lack of a dominant pass-rush and a seemingly tough schedule.-- Matt Fortuna
How much stock do we put in Malik Zaire now that he's officially the man for the Irish? Tough question to answer, especially with yet another tough schedule awaiting. The preseason expectations are high, but it's going to be difficult to make a playoff run. A 9-3 season seems most likely, but 10 wins won't be surprising. -- Andrea Adelson
QB turnover, a defense that underperformed relative to their opponents' averages in nine of 13 games last year and a tough schedule should all be red flags for the Irish, but there's also reason to think this team has made some real progress from last year's 2-5 finish. An 8-4 or 9-3 regular season seems like the most logical projection. -- David Hale
No. 11 UCLA | No. 13 Clemson | Top 25
