No. 8 Michigan State | No. 10 Georgia | Top 25
No. 9: Florida State
Last Season: 13-1 (8-0 ACC)
The past three seasons in Tallahassee have brought three straight ACC titles, a BCS title, a College Football Playoff berth, and only three marks in the loss column. Most of the early-season focus on FSU will be filled with QB controversy chatter (veteran Sean Maguire vs. Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson vs. redshirt freshman J.J. Cosentino) and exactly who will protect that QB (only one O-lineman starter returns). But sixth-year coach Jimbo Fisher's focus will be on the guy running the ball. Last fall 6-foot, 203-pound Dalvin Cook got better as the season went on, especially as Jameis Winston struggled with consistency. Cook set an FSU freshman rushing record with 1,008 yards and it was Cook who was voted the ACC title game MVP, averaging 141 yards per game over the season's final three contests against Florida, Georgia Tech and Oregon. "Having a talent like Dalvin Cook carrying the football eases your worries when you're a team in transition," Fisher said. "It gives you a chance to figure other things out because you're not worried about him. He'll take care of business for you." --Ryan McGee
While the Noles appear to be down a notch, coach Jimbo Fisher can point to 2013 as a blueprint for surprise. Two years ago, FSU returned just 11 starters (same as '15) and had to replace 11 NFL draft picks (same as '15), including first-round QB EJ Manuel (see: Jameis Winston). But the '13 Noles dominated en route to an undefeated BCS title season -- and I favor this group in every game save for a pick 'em at Clemson. Replacing Winston won't be easy, but Fisher landed Notre Dame grad transfer QB Everett Golson, who led the Irish to the '12 BCS title game, and FSU has reeled in my Nos. 4 and 3 recruiting classes the past two years. I actually project true freshman FS Derwin James to be a high-profile starter for my No. 9 secondary, a unit led by corner Jalen Ramsey, who's FSU's top returner in sacks.
IN IF...
The QB (Golson, Sean Maguire or J.J. Cosentino) plays solid vs. a mediocre schedule (FPI No. 58) and well enough to win at Clemson. It's that simple: Playoff dreams live on or die hard in Death Valley.
OUT IF...
The new faces on the O-line (four) and three key replacements on the defensive front don't step up in a hurry. Oh, and three of those seven cogs are redshirt frosh.
FSU's chances to win each game
09.05 vs. Texas State: 91%
09.12 vs. USF: 96.2%
09.18 @ Boston College: 77.2%
10.03 @ Wake Forest: 84.5%
10.10 vs. Miami: 64.8%
10.17 vs. Louisville: 73.5%
10.24 @ Georgia Tech: 44.5%
11.07 @ Clemson: 39%*
11.14 vs. NC State: 72.4%
11.21 vs. Chattanooga: 99.6%
11.28 @ Florida: 46.1%
*BROCK HUARD, ESPN analyst: FSU does lose 11 starters, but Clemson is down eight on D alone. And while Dabo Swinney isn't a shabby recruiter, Fisher is a step ahead. Advantage: slightly to the Noles.
SHARON KATZ, ESPN Stats & Info: Even with a ton of turnover on D, FPI believes Clemson is the No. 4 unit in the FBS, while the Noles' O, which lost seven starters to the NFL, ranks No. 31. Advantage: Death Valley.
The schedule sets up perfectly for what will be a young Florida State team when the season begins, with the first ranked team not appearing until late October. No matter who starts at quarterback, the Seminoles will have time to get him into the groove, especially with what Jimbo Fisher has called the most talented group of receivers he has had in Tallahassee. The defense won't be elite, but it should be improved. Despite the youth, FSU has a great chance to finish at least 10-2. -- Andrea Adelson
Everett Golson looking for redemption at FSU is among the nation's most intriguing storylines. The Noles have recruited as well as anyone, but the acclimation of so many new faces on both sides of the ball could mean a step back in 2015, and a 9-3 season. -- Matt Fortuna
No one doubts FSU's potential, as Jimbo Fisher has brought in plenty of top talent. But this team lacks significant experience in a number of key areas, and the defense struggled even with veterans a year ago. A manageable schedule helps, but this might be the toughest season of the Fisher era, and a 9-3 finish to the regular-season seems reasonable. -- David Hale
FSU will have a chance to break in its new quarterback before road trips to Georgia Tech and Clemson, but a remaining roster in rebuild casts doubt on a fourth straight conference championship and a step-back 9-3 season isn't out of the question before their playoff window reopens in 2016. -- Jared Shanker
No. 8 Michigan State | No. 10 Georgia | Top 25
