2013 college football betting guide

With the 2013 college football season nearly a week away, fans and sportsbooks are buzzing with excitement about the season's best bets. Beyond BCS-title favorites such as Alabama and front-runner conference picks such as Ohio State, where do the best value bets lie?

Two ESPN Insider betting experts, Phil Steele and Will Harris, are here to help. Below is our 2013 college football betting guide, which includes dozens of picks from Steele and Harris covering a variety of betting categories and/or odds-related questions. (Odds according to Las Vegas.)

1. Which team is the best bet to win the BCS title? Are there any others worth giving a look?

Phil Steele: The best bet to win the BCS national championship are the Texas Longhorns (20-to-1 odds). While the Crimson Tide are my official pick to win the national championship over Ohio State this year, those two teams are the clear favorites in Las Vegas and do not give you solid value. The Longhorns, however, do give you value as they are currently favored in all 12 of their games. They are the most experienced team in the country (19 returning starters) playing in a Big 12 Conference that ranks as the least experienced conference in college football this year. Five of my nine sets of power ratings call for an unbeaten Longhorns season.

Other teams worth considering:

Florida State Seminoles (20-1): Last year, the Noles were favored in every game by a touchdown or more, and this year's team is nearly as talented. Four of my nine sets of power ratings call for an unbeaten season in Tallahassee.

Oregon Ducks (17-2): The Ducks are favored by more than a touchdown in 11 of their 12 games, with the road trip to Stanford being the lone exception.

Georgia Bulldogs (16-1): The Bulldogs came within one play of beating Alabama and playing for the title. This year, they get key games against South Carolina and LSU at home.

Stanford Cardinal (16-1): The Cardinal have made three straight BCS bowls and, despite a tough schedule, they return the most talented defense in the country outside of Alabama.

USC Trojans (40-1): Last year's preseason No. 1 team is stronger and deeper at nearly every position. Plus, the schedule has them avoiding Oregon while playing Stanford at home.

Will Harris: The Oklahoma Sooners (55-1) are my favorite selection. The Sooners are replacing a lot of quality players, but this is a bloated price for a team with this many strengths. The offense is loaded with a half-dozen all-conference-caliber playmakers, and is poised to explode despite a new face under center. The defense is young but talented, and will improve considerably now that second-year coordinator Mike Stoops' charges are more accustomed to his managerial style. The Oklahoma program and its current staff have a championship pedigree, and with title futures we're looking to back an outfit that can win the big game, not just get there.

In terms of other intriguing teams, the South Carolina Gamecocks (34-1) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (60-1) look like the best values from the rest of the market.

2. What are the best win total bets?

Steele: Three jump out at me:

Louisville Cardinals over 10.5 wins: The Cardinals return a Heisman candidate in quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and their defense returns 10 starters while losing only three lettermen from last year. Vegas currently has them listed as a double-digit favorite in each of their first 11 games, with the road game at Cincinnati in the regular-season finale being their toughest test on the season. The 10.5 total even allows for a slip-up, giving this number even more value.

Texas Longhorns over 9.5 wins: How can a team that is currently favored in all 12 of its games not have a win total of at least 10.5 or 11? The Longhorns have certainly underachieved since the 2009 national title game, but despite the disappointment, their win total has gone up from just five wins in 2010 to nine last year. This year, the experienced Horns are my No. 1 pick as a dark-horse national title contender and look for them to easily top this win total.

USC Trojans over 9.5 wins: Obviously, the Trojans were a huge disappointment last year, becoming the first preseason No. 1 team to finish outside of the Top 25. But this year's team is stronger. Vegas currently has them favored in 10 of their games, while I have them as a favorite in 12. Another overlooked factor in this win total is that the Trojans play 13 regular-season games this year. They could lose three games and still cash in on the over.

Harris: Here are my four favorites:

Ball State Cardinals over 9.5 wins: This may seem a steep number, but we're getting nearly 7-4 on our money with a team that has an excellent shot to go unbeaten. Pete Lembo's Cardinals will be favored in every outing save winnable invasions of Charlottesville and DeKalb.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish over 8.5 wins: The Irish are a loaded team with a great staff and no real weakness. We expect to clear this total with at least a game to spare behind fine seasons from quarterback Tommy Rees and a dominant defensive front.

UNLV Rebels over 4.0 wins: Bobby Hauck is 6-32 at UNLV, but for those looking to fade the Rebels, we say don't let the smooth taste fool you. This is the best UNLV squad since John Robinson's 2000 edition that whipped Arkansas in the Vegas Bowl. Bowl contention and a finish in the upper half of the division standings are eminently reachable goals.

Kentucky Wildcats under 4.5 wins: The Wildcats have been recruiting at a high level and drew a record crowd to their spring game, but that's where the fun stops for rookie boss Mark Stoops. This is a learning year for everyone involved, and it's really hard to see the Cats winning a single conference game.

3. What are the best value bets for conference titles?

Steele: I've found some value picks in three different leagues:

Virginia Tech Hokies (7-1) to win the ACC: While Clemson and Florida State are getting all the preseason hype among ACC teams, the Hokies are dangerous with an offense that features much more experience surrounding quarterback Logan Thomas. The defense allowed just 80 rushing yards per game down the stretch last year and returns nine starters. Additionally, the schedule sets up nicely as the Hokies avoid the Tigers and Seminoles out of the ACC Atlantic.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-1) to win the Big Ten: Quarterback Taylor Martinez returns for his senior season and is surrounded by the best Husker skill-position talent and offensive line in more than a decade. While the defense loses its top five tacklers, the old adage of "addition by subtraction" could hold true in Lincoln this fall, as I like a lot of the individual talent on this year's roster. The schedule also gets easier as Ohio State and Wisconsin drop off and are replaced by Purdue and Illinois. Look for the Huskers to make it back the Big Ten championship game, where anything can happen in a one-game setting.

Stanford Cardinal (9-2) to win the Pac-12: I realized after talking with head coach David Shaw over the summer that I probably undervalued the Cardinal in my preseason magazine as they are extremely talented, especially on defense. The schedule is tough, specifically the November slate, but they do get a key game against Oregon at home. A win there will probably have them back in a Pac-12 championship game and this conference bet number is surprisingly high for a legitimate national title contender.

Harris: Here are three values to look for among conference title futures:

Clemson Tigers (Even) to win the ACC Atlantic: Clemson is a nearly loaded team about to experience both the benefits of second-year improvement on defense and the magnum opus of one of the game's truly elite quarterback-playcaller duos. The team that shares the Tigers' spot atop the betting order is Florida State, which is downright rebuilding. The Seminoles are trying to replace a four-year starter under center, four draft picks from the defensive line and two-thirds of their coaching staff. Maryland is as likely as the Noles to be Clemson's biggest competition within the Atlantic division, and the real threats are in the Coastal. Pass on the league championship market and invest in the Tigers' well-lit path to a division crown.

Ball State Cardinals (minus-600) to win the MAC: Expectations are higher this year after the 2012 edition produced identical 9-4 marks straight up and against the number. Still, this bunch remains undersold. Lembo's star has not come close to peaking, and his team sports what we count as the best quarterback and receiving corps in the MAC. Ball State is a well-led, well-stocked team with championship intangibles, and the odds of a MAC crown look more like even money to us.

Oklahoma Sooners (plus-370) to win the Big 12: Six different starting quarterbacks have piloted Bob Stoops' eight Big 12 championship teams. Fourth in the betting order is not where this team belongs.

4. Which games/lines offer the best preseason value?

Steele: These three games are worth a look:

Fresno State Bulldogs (plus-1) versus Boise State Broncos, Sept. 20: Boise State has won and covered seven straight in this series, but that will come to an end this year. Fresno State went 11 years without running the table at home, but did so last year in head coach Tim DeRuyter's first season (the Broncos were also 6-0 at home against the spread). The Bulldogs have the more experienced team, are playing with revenge at home on national TV and are currently a slight underdog.

Tennessee Volunteers (minus-1) versus Vanderbilt Commodores, Nov. 23: The Volunteers were 28-1 in this series prior to last year, when the Commodores would roll up their biggest margin of victory over Tennessee since 1954 in a 41-18 rout. This is a legitimate revenge game for a team that had dominated the series history and was embarrassed last year. The Vols will be coming off a bye and will reclaim state bragging rights.

Louisville Cardinals (minus-2.5) at Cincinnati Bearcats, Dec. 5: The visitor is 7-1 ATS in the battle for the Keg of Nails. Louisville could be coming into this game undefeated -- playing for at least a BCS bowl -- and new Cincinnati head coach Tommy Tuberville has a history of upsetting top five teams (6-2 all time). However, the Cardinals are clearly the superior team, and their experience will serve them well against the Bearcats.

Harris: Let's take a look at three Week 1 contests that make for good preseason values:

Ole Miss Rebels (minus-3) at Vanderbilt Commodores, Aug. 29: Vanderbilt, like Texas A&M, is about to experience a lost season consumed by scandal. While the crush of the media eventually breached the Aggies' locker room, the Commodores' cracks began in the team's inner sanctum and are spreading. Vanderbilt is a team you want to fade this year. Week 1 against Ole Miss is a good place to start.

UAB Blazers (plus-5) at Troy Trojans, Aug. 31: We like what Garrick McGee is doing in Birmingham, and we're willing to ride along as his Blazers attempt to build on last year's 7-5 ATS record. We're not leaving Troy for dead yet, but this year's edition has to reverse four years of declining trends with a lot of new faces in the starting lineup. Points are generous when we hold the better team in a hotly contested series.

UCLA Bruins (minus-19) versus Nevada Wolf Pack, Aug. 31: We're seldom willing to trust UCLA with our money, but Nevada is a rebuilding team that's just starting to find its way under a lightly experienced staff. It's true that the Bruins are vulnerable in the secondary and that Nevada boasts a strong cadre of receivers to go with all-league quarterback Cody Fajardo. But the UCLA front seven will dominate an overmatched offensive line and the Pack's switch to a zone defense will be the source of plenty of confusion and unforced errors in its first trial.

5. Which Heisman Trophy bets offer the best value?

Steele: I have two quarterbacks to watch for this section:

AJ McCarron, Alabama Crimson Tide (10-1): While it has been the Bama running backs and defense that's gotten the majority of the credit in the Crimson Tide's run of dominance, McCarron has been rock-solid in each of the last two years. Last year, he threw for 2,933 yards while finishing No. 1 in the NCAA in pass efficiency, thanks to an incredible 30-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio. If McCarron has similar numbers while leading Alabama to a third straight national title appearance, how can anyone deny him at least an invite to New York? At 10-1, he's a value.

Braxton Miller, Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1): While Miller is now the Heisman favorite in Las Vegas thanks to Manziel's off-field troubles, the 5-1 odds still give you some solid value as I think he has a greater than 20 percent chance of winning the award. After putting up great numbers last year, he has a stronger supporting cast this year. Miller should put up even better numbers in his third year as the starter while leading the Buckeyes to at least a top-5 finish.

Harris: I'd stick with one of the favorites in this market. Miller leads the betting order at 5-1, and next up are Clowney at 6-1 and Bridgewater at 10-1. All three have plausible paths to the trophy.

Miller's highlight-generating tools and his maturation in Year 2 under Urban Meyer combine with a fantastic line and plenty of skill-position talent in what should be a top-five offense. Miller could lead the nation in total offense while leading a national title contender, which sounds like a Heisman recipe.

Louisville has a reasonable chance at an unbeaten season, which could cement the likable Bridgewater as the season's signature player.

Clowney's (second) Heisman moment will have to be the terrorizing of McCarron in the SEC championship game. The voters are more receptive than ever to the idea of a defensive honoree, and Clowney is, like Miller and Bridgewater, the A-list star on a team with championship potential. But there's also a sort of mythical ethos surrounding Clowney and his feats like no other candidate. It would take a little taller price to get us truly interested, but we'll give Clowney a close nod over Miller and Bridgewater.