As we near the opening of the 2013 season, every team still has important personnel questions that likely won't be answered until at least a couple of games have been played.
The most popular of these questions, of course, are the ones regarding quarterback play. But for the following four teams, perceived concerns have been overblown. We'll use Total QBR (ESPN's new quarterback rating that considers every aspect of QB performance and adjusts for the quality of opposing defenses) to explain why each will get better-than-expected quarterback play in 2013.
Here are the four teams, with a key question that needs to be answered for each.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Question: Can Tommy Rees in 2013 be better than Everett Golson in 2012?
Golson started as a redshirt freshman last season and led Notre Dame to a berth in the BCS title game. But while nobody disputes Golson's contributions to the Irish's undefeated regular season of a year ago, a convincing case could be made that Notre Dame would not have reached the title game without Rees, who led the go-ahead scoring drives against Stanford and Purdue, as well as the game-clinching drive against Michigan.
Golson, of course, has been suspended from the university for the fall semester, forcing head coach Brian Kelly to turn to Rees as his starter for this season. Rees had a 2012 adjusted QBR of 69 (on a scale of 0 to 100), which was just ahead of Golson's 67 that ranked 35th among FBS starters. That means the quarterbacks were basically equal in performance.
But Rees and Golson have different skill sets. Golson is more athletic and a much greater threat in the running game, while Rees was the more effective passer in 2012 despite not having Golson's arm strength. This is important, because it may change the dynamics of Notre Dame's offense this season.
Because QBR measures a quarterback's production in all areas of play, we know that Golson had a rating of 68 as a rusher last season (once again, on a scale of 0 to 100). Rees, for his career, has a rusher rating of 3. In other words, unless Brian Kelly chooses to incorporate backup QB Andrew Hendrix into the gameplan (Hendrix has a career rushing QBR of 85 in limited action), the Irish are likely to lose any threat of running from the QB position.
Rees has shown himself to be capable of making winning plays against good teams, but he has yet to do it with consistency over the course of a season. If he can fix that this season, the Irish should be just fine at the QB position, even without Golson.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Question: Who is the better option between Clint Chelf and J.W. Walsh?
Many things go into determining a team's starting quarterback, and previous game performance is just one of them. So QBR doesn't tell us who should be the starter, but what we can expect from a guy when he's on the field. In this case, QBR says that Oklahoma State might have the best situation of any team that has yet to name its Week 1 starter.
The battle is between Chelf (adjusted QBR of 75 last season) and Walsh (adjusted QBR of 86 last season). With 50 being an average rating, the Cowboys seem to be in a no-lose situation.
If he had enough action plays to qualify for the national rankings last season, Walsh would've ranked third in adjusted QBR behind Johnny Manziel and Marcus Mariota (and just ahead of Tajh Boyd). That's some legit company. One big reason for this is Walsh's rushing QBR of 91. He ran the ball 14 times on third downs and converted on 10 of them. He also gained 10 yards or more on 24 percent of his rushing attempts. Walsh gives OSU a true dual threat behind center.
Chelf, however, is no slouch in the running game either. He ran about half as frequently as Walsh but was even more effective by the percentages. What may be surprising to some is that Chelf didn't outperform Walsh as a passer, according to QBR. On pass attempts only, Chelf's QBR last season was 69, compared to Walsh's 83. And even though the opponent adjustment doesn't close the gap all that much, it's worth pointing out that Chelf started against both Kansas State and Oklahoma, while Walsh's only high-profile start was against Texas.
Still, QBR says that Walsh was the better quarterback in 2012. But it also says that OSU head coach Mike Gundy can't go wrong with either guy.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Question: Should Steve Spurrier play both Connor Shaw and Dylan Thompson?
Judging by his comments to the media this summer, Spurrier's confidence level in Shaw entering this season seems to be as high as it has been with any of his starting quarterbacks at South Carolina. But this is Spurrier we're talking about, so that doesn't necessarily mean that the backup, Thompson, won't also see the field a lot in 2013.
The good news for the Gamecocks is that QBR says Thompson might actually be the better of the two. Thompson had an adjusted QBR of 76 last season, while Shaw was at 65 (although Shaw played more than double the number of snaps). The interesting part is drilling down to see what actually makes Thompson's numbers better.
Shaw has always been known for his toughness, and part of that is his ability to make plays as a runner when he needs to. Yet Shaw has a rushing QBR that's just above average (55), while Thompson makes big plays with his feet more frequently and has an impressive rushing QBR of 91.
Regardless of which QB ends up seeing the field more, South Carolina has the luxury of knowing that it has two very capable quarterbacks ready to enter the game.
Oregon State Beavers
Question: Who is the better option between Sean Mannion and Cody Vaz?
This is the same question asked for Oklahoma State, but the answer is different for Oregon State because the numbers are inconclusive. Mannion and Vaz both played a lot of snaps last season, and their adjusted QBR numbers were almost identical: Vaz (63.4), Mannion (62.5).
From the opponent adjustment, we can see that Vaz faced more tough defenses, and he played extremely well at BYU. It's also evident that Vaz was the slightly better quarterback of the two until the bowl game, when he threw two interceptions and took 10 sacks against Texas. (QBR assigns the quarterback partial responsibility for a sack. Some sacks are not the fault of the QB, and some are mostly his fault, so it should even out over the course of a season.)
Mannion had a few strong performances in conference play (UCLA, Arizona and Cal), but he also had three league games with three or more interceptions (Washington State, Washington and Oregon), although he wasn't bad otherwise against the Ducks.
All things considered, Vaz seemed to be the more consistent of the two last season, but there's not a bad option between the them. The Beavers should be in much better shape than you'd expect for a team that takes until August to name its starter.