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Clemson built for future

Dabo Swinney led the Tigers to the Orange Bowl last season, setting the bar for 2012. AP Photo/Patrick Semansky

During the past 20 years, the ACC has been much like what the Big Ten was for a very long time, a conference with the big two (Florida State and Virginia Tech) and the little seven.

The Seminoles and Hokies won or shared the conference title in 16 of those 20 campaigns and with the recent resurgence of the Florida State program under Jimbo Fisher, there is every reason to think that trend could continue for a while.

Unless the Clemson Tigers have something to say about it, that is. Last year, Dabo Swinney led the Tigers to their first 10-win season since 1990 and first ACC title since 1991.

That might normally seem to bode well for future success, but the combination of Clemson giving up 70 points to the West Virginia Mountaineers in the Orange Bowl (the most points ever allowed in a bowl game) and the fact the Tigers have won as many as nine games only six times since their previous ACC title may have some thinking that 2011 was just a one-shot deal for this team.

After taking a closer look, however, it seems like nothing could be further from the truth. There are many reasons to think that Clemson has a good shot at not only defending its crown this year but also at being a serious contender for conference supremacy in the future.

Let's start with why this team can contend for the ACC title in 2012.

It begins on offense, where the Tigers have some issues to address along the line, having to replace three starting offensive linemen from last year's team. But one of the returning starters in that group is first-team All-ACC center Dalton Freeman, who will be joined by fellow first-team All-ACC players quarterback Tajh Boyd and wide receiver Sammy Watkins.

What's more, the Tigers will also have the services of running back Andre Ellington, a second-team All-ACC pick who decided to return for his senior season. The combination of Boyd, Watkins and Ellington might be the best trio of skill players in the ACC and one of the best in college football.

Clemson's offensive outlook is certainly promising heading into 2012, but there are actually more than a few potential upward trends on the defensive side of the ball.

That might be hard to believe for a team that gave up 27 or more points in nine games last year (including seven of its last eight), but the truth is new defensive coordinator Brent Venables could be much closer to fielding a quality defense than those point totals would indicate.

To illustrate this, check out the Tigers' route-depth metrics from an 11-game sample last season (includes every game against BCS opponents sans the South Carolina contest):

The yards per attempt (YPA) totals on short, medium and deep passes are all very solid. The problem is that the 19.5 YPA on bomb routes throws the entire pass defense equation out of whack.

To put it another way, Clemson's YPA totals would have been good across the board were it not for nine completed bomb passes. Since six of those completions were via post routes or post route variants, solving this problem could be as simple as getting the safeties to adhere to the old rule of staying as deep as the deepest receiver.

Good tacking could also solve a lot of issues. Five of the 12 short-pass touchdowns allowed in these games went for gains of 22 or more yards. Clemson could also benefit from better cornerback play, especially in place of starting cornerback Xavier Brewer and his 10.3 YPA mark.

The good news here is that Clemson could have a candidate to take over for Brewer. Martin Jenkins' 5.3 YPA last year was achieved on only 20 pass targets, but he did knock down six of those passes, so it could be a glimpse of what he could do in a more prominent role.

The Tigers should also get more solid play from Bashaud Breeland. He notched a 6.3 YPA on 29 passes in his freshman campaign and could get better with more experience.

Getting those improvements in place could help take care of this year, but what about the future? Is there evidence showing that Clemson has a chance at building a long-term ACC powerhouse?

Absolutely. It can be found in a list of the number of times teams from the ACC have ranked in the top 25 in the ESPN recruiting grades since 2006:

Clemson: 7
Florida State: 7
Miami: 6
North Carolina: 5
Virginia Tech: 5
Georgia Tech: 1
Maryland: 1
NC State: 1
Virginia: 1

Clemson's on-field play finally matched its off-field recruiting success during the 2011 season, and with a steady stream of talent continuing to come into the program, there's no reason Swinney can't keep up the Tigers' winning ways. If Venables can tighten up a defense that suffered from a lack of discipline as much as any other issue last season, the pieces could be in place for Clemson to go on one of the best multiyear runs in the program's history.


KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and his web site. He is the author of an annual fantasy football draft guide, which is currently available, and "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."