Thomas Dewey is best remembered as the subject of the most infamous headline gaffe in newspaper history ("Dewey Defeats Truman"), but he also serves as a cautionary tale for those who are thought to be unbeatable favorites.
Dewey was certainly considered one of those in the 1948 presidential election, and it led Dewey to think that he did not need to go out and win the election -- all he had to do was to play it safe and victory was sure to be his.
This turned out to be a mistake, as voters ended up being impressed by Harry Truman's aggressive campaign and elected him to another term as president.
Upsets of this caliber are rare and the odds that it would happen to the Heisman Trophy candidacy of Stanford Cardinal quarterback Andrew Luck, this year's heavy favorite, were probably quite slim until the Cardinal's loss to the Oregon Ducks on Saturday.
That upset has opened the door for making a powerful argument that Oklahoma State Cowboys quarterback Brandon Weeden is more deserving of the Heisman right now, and his case could end up even stronger by the end of the season.
That argument can be summed up in four points:
Weeden's overall numbers are nearly identical to Luck's
According to CFBstats.com, Weeden and Luck are very close in passing numbers posted against FBS opponents. Weeden's 164.16 passer rating mark ranks seventh, while Luck's 169.03 rating ranks fifth.
Their yards-per-attempt totals and touchdown-to-interception ratios are likewise very similar. Luck has averaged 8.6 yards per attempt with a 29-to-7 ratio, while Weeden has posted an 8.5 YPA and 31-to-9 ratio.
Weeden has survived Justin Blackmon's statistical drop-off
Weeden is thought to have a significant advantage in receivers because he has preseason All-American Justin Blackmon to throw to, but Blackmon is actually playing at a much lower level in 2011 than he did in 2010.
So far this year, in games against teams from BCS AQ conferences, Blackmon has gained 948 receiving/penalty yards on 108 targets, or 8.8 yards per attempt.
Now contrast that with his numbers against AQ teams in 2010 -- 1,242 receiving/penalty yards on 103 targets, or 12.1 YPA.
That decline in YPA should have dragged down Weeden's totals but didn't because Weeden has found a way to make the other Oklahoma State wideouts nearly as productive as Blackmon.
Consider the combined metrics, in games against BCS opponents, of Cowboys wide receivers Hubert Anyiam, Josh Cooper, Michael Harrison, Tracy Moore and Josh Stewart. They have gained 1,441 yards on 161 targets, or a 9.0 YPA that is a bit higher than what Blackmon has posted.
It is a key reason why Weeden's passer rating this year is actually 10 points higher than it was in 2010, and proves that he is no longer a one-target passer.
Weeden is peaking at exactly the right time
Finishing up strong is crucial to winning any contest and Weeden is certainly doing that. In this past weekend's matchup against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, he posted a season-best YPA total of 11.4.
In the battle against the No. 17 Kansas State Wildcats two weeks ago, Weeden topped the 500-yard passing mark in a single game for the first time in his career. That would be enough to hang his hat on, but Weeden did this while leading his team back from a 10-point deficit in maybe the most exciting game of the 2011 college football season.
Luck is falling at exactly the worst time
Weeden's recent performance might not have been enough to close the gap if Luck were playing at his best, but during the past two weeks, Luck has produced numbers that are easily among the worst he has had in a two-game stretch in his collegiate career.
His YPA in each of these games fell short of the 7-yard mark, which is the first time Luck has posted consecutive games with fewer than 7 yards per attempt since his redshirt freshman season.
Luck also threw three interceptions in these games, which is only the second time in his career he has thrown that many picks in a two-game stretch. In addition, his 135.76 passer rating in the Oregon game was his lowest single-game passer rating mark of the season and his lowest in his last 13 starts.
The Oregon performance could be somewhat forgiven because it occurred against one of the best defenses in college football, but not the egg he laid against an Oregon State Beavers team that has only two wins on the year and ranks 104th in the FBS in passer rating allowed.
This drop-off allows for a case to be made that Weeden should be ahead of Luck in any Player of the Year balloting, but that lead could actually be extended if Weeden is able to guide his team to victory in the Cowboys' last two games.
To do this would mean notching a win at the Iowa State Cyclones this weekend followed by a home victory against the archrival Oklahoma Sooners in the annual Bedlam contest.
The Cowboys haven't won a Bedlam battle since 2002, so if Weeden is able to pull that off while leading Oklahoma State to an undefeated season and a berth in the BCS title game, it would be perhaps the second-biggest signature win of the 2011 college season.
If enough voters will wait to submit their ballots until then, it could also lead to Weeden pulling off one of the biggest Heisman Trophy comebacks in history.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is the author of an annual fantasy football draft guide, which is currently available, and "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."