For three years I have been banging the drum for the Boise State Broncos, bothered by the fact that perception has too often trumped reality. It's frustrating to me that Boise is still more closely associated with its blue turf and "Statue of Liberty" thriller against Oklahoma in 2007 than the fact that its senior class is 46-2 during the last four seasons (with those two losses coming by a combined four points).
The idea that any one-loss team, including the Alabama Crimson Tide, would pass an undefeated Broncos team in the BCS standings at season's end -- which looks like a likely possibility at the moment -- is both misguided and unfair. Just because this team doesn't play in a power conference like the SEC doesn't mean it isn't deserving of making the Allstate BCS National Championship Game or capable of beating an Alabama or LSU Tigers team on a neutral field with the championship on the line.
I've gone through four points here to show where perception has hidden reality, and made the case for why the Broncos deserve a title shot:
1. Quarterback play
Perception: Kellen Moore is a system quarterback who's limited in size and arm strength
Reality: Moore is better than any quarterback in the SEC
Go ahead and ask the Georgia Bulldogs, Virginia Tech Hokies, Oregon Ducks, TCU Horned Frogs and 42 other opponents. Moore has more wins than any other signal-caller in the history of college football for a reason -- he is really good. His statistics are so good that they're almost too silly to reference, most notably his 128-to-24 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio. His accuracy, anticipation, feel and pocket awareness are second to none, and that includes Andrew Luck. If Moore were 6-foot-2 and 215 pounds, he'd be joining Luck atop every NFL team's draft board.
In many ways, Moore is a microcosm of his football program. Doubted because he is not prototypical in nature, he has been undeniably productive, incredibly sound and smart. He has taken on all comers in his four years and lost only two games, both by field goals. Simply put, he's better than any passer an SEC team can run out of the tunnel this season.
2. Schedule strength
Perception: Boise just beats up on weak conference opponents
Reality: Boise beats everyone, and at a rate better than any team in football
I know what the Boise haters' next point is going to be, so let me address it right away. No, the Broncos' playing the likes of the Air Force Falcons, UNLV Rebels and New Mexico Lobos in conference isn't the same as what Alabama does in the SEC in playing the Arkansas Razorbacks, Tennessee Volunteers and LSU. And yes, it would be much harder for Moore and Co. to post a 46-2 record against a more challenging league slate than what they face now.
But Boise's performance in its games against top competition is hard to deny. The Broncos have won seven of their last nine games against ranked opponents, and only two of those were on the blue turf (Bama is 5-4 during their last nine, for reference). They were the last team to win in Eugene, Ore., and thumped an SEC team in its home state. During the last four seasons they have beaten the Pac-10 champ, ACC champ and Mountain West champ, and this year, the team leading the SEC East. And oh yeah, they beat the Big 12 champ in that Fiesta Bowl game in 2007.
That record should be proof enough that the Broncos would be capable of hanging with even the best SEC teams on a neutral field, but in case you needed more, I checked in with the folks at AccuScore to see how Boise fares in their projections. The Broncos fare well, as it turns out, projecting to beat LSU 3.5 times out of 10 and Alabama three times out of 10, numbers just shy of Stanford's projected chances against each team and ahead of the No. 2 Oklahoma State Cowboys' chances.
Lastly, consider this stat: Boise State has trailed for only 74 minutes during its past 48 games. No matter what level of competition you're playing against, that is a staggering number.
3. Top-end talent
Perception: Boise is a program full of 2-star recruits who can't hang with the blue-chip powerhouses of the SEC
Reality: The Broncos' roster is loaded with NFL talent
In Todd McShay's 2012 preseason NFL draft manual, Boise State had six prospects listed, including a second-round defensive tackle, running back and offensive tackle, and mid-rounders at cornerback, quarterback and tight end. All six prospects have done nothing but improve upon their draft standing this season, and it wouldn't be a surprise if a few other Broncos find themselves picked in the later rounds.
By contrast, Oregon, which lost by a field goal in the BCS title game last January, had one player selected in last April's draft and had just three prospects crack McShay's preseason manual.
In the interest of fairness, it's worth noting that Alabama is loaded with NFL talent, with 10 prospects earning preseason draft-eligible grades from McShay (including eight on defense). However, only one other SEC team had as many prospects as Boise's six, and that was the South Carolina Gamecocks. In the highly vaunted SEC, both the Vanderbilt Commodores and Mississippi State Bulldogs had zero prospects, while the Auburn Tigers, Florida Gators, Kentucky Wildcats, Tennessee Volunteers and Ole Miss Rebels had two or fewer. LSU, a team loaded with talented underclassmen, also had just one draft-eligible prospect ranked.
It's time we got this portion of the Boise narrative correct: The Broncos aren't undersized and unathletic; they have NFL-caliber talent decorating their success story.
4. On-field production
Perception: Boise is a finesse team that relies on trick plays
Reality: Boise is a dominant, balanced team on both sides of the ball
Boise State plays really good defense, and of the top-five teams in the BCS, no one compares to the offensive and defensive balance of the Broncos. Boise State ranks in the top 13 in both total offense and defense, as well as in scoring offense and defense. The only team in the BCS top five within reach of that statistical dominance is the Stanford Cardinal, at No. 8 in total offense and No. 18 defensively.
I am sure defenders of the low-scoring Alabama-LSU matchup from last week will point to the tough defenses both teams face in the SEC as to why they aren't present in both categories. But lost in the narrative of the two teams' excellent defenses (and I am not arguing that they are anything but) is the fact that for every sound defensive play in that game, there were missed kicks, poor punts, worse passes and 12-men-in-the-huddle penalties that contributed to an offensive output that created a combined 15 points (and only 12 in regulation).
Boise, on the other hand, scores touchdowns. Want proof? Georgia, the seventh-stingiest defense in America (according to yards per game allowed), gave up five to the Broncos in what was the Bulldogs' largest in-state loss in five years -- 35-21. Go ahead and re-watch the way Moore carved up a good Bulldogs defense and tell me he wouldn't be able to move the ball against Bama or LSU.
There is no doubt in my mind that Boise State would beat both LSU and Alabama on a neutral field at least three out of 10 times, if not more. For once, the computers spit out the data to back this up (see AccuScore projections, above right). The Broncos are a senior-laden, battle-tested group that is loaded with future NFL players. Their chances of winning a BCS title game matchup against the Tigers or the Tide are as good as any of the top contenders', and in a one-game winner-take-all scenario, I think they could come away with the victory.
It's about time we got the chance to know for sure.
Brock Huard is a college football analyst for ESPN and ABC's Saturday games on the West Coast and works as a studio analyst for the networks. He played quarterback for six seasons in the NFL and was a three-year starter for the Washington Huskies. Huard is the co-host of the "Brock and Salk Show" on 710 ESPN Seattle (follow the show on Twitter here), and he will be writing a weekly column for ESPN Insider during the college football season.