Six college football teams that started ranked and now need a do-over

As we close in on November and the upcoming unveiling of the initial College Football Playoff rankings, the teams everyone hyped to be national title contenders are right where we thought they'd be. Oregon, Georgia, Penn State, Ohio State, Texas and Notre Dame are all generally living up to top-10 expectations.

But preseason polls are an inexact science to say the least, an educated guessing game of which teams have enough returning talent and perceived momentum to win big. Ten teams in the preseason AP Top 25 are currently unranked, and a few are even heading toward losing seasons.

Where did they go wrong? Here's a closer look at six teams -- Michigan, Florida State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Arizona and USC -- with big expectations that have disappointed in 2024 and the roster issues they're fighting to overcome on a weekly basis.

Jump to:
Michigan | Florida State
Oklahoma | Oklahoma State
Arizona | USC

Michigan Wolverines (5-3)

Preseason rank: eighth

What went wrong: QB succession

Michigan entered the offseason needing to replace a swath of standout players -- a team-record 13 would be selected in April's NFL draft -- as well as coach Jim Harbaugh and several valued assistants. But one of the drawbacks to going through a national title run and then a coaching change in January is missing an opportunity to reload in the winter transfer window and fill anticipated roster holes.

The Wolverines' approach toward one of those expected holes at quarterback has drawn justified scrutiny and bewilderment through the first two months. J.J. McCarthy didn't enter the 2023 season with the virtual NFL certainty of USC's Caleb Williams or North Carolina's Drake Maye, but his jump to the pros seemed more likely as the season went along. Since McCarthy claimed the starting job early in the 2022 season, Michigan never had a second quarterback gain meaningful field time. The team used Alex Orji as a change-up runner, while Jack Tuttle saw time at the end of blowout wins and completed 15 of 17 pass attempts.

What was Michigan's post-McCarthy plan? The coaches opted to trust a quarterback room that lacked starting experience. When Tuttle was approved for a seventh year of eligibility in February, Michigan's staff did not see a need to add a veteran transfer in the spring portal. The list of spring QB transfers with starting experience included Gavin Wimsatt (now at Kentucky), Brendan Sullivan (Iowa), Mike Wright (Northwestern) and Collin Schlee (Virginia Tech). Finding a better option than them likely would've required some tampering.

Tuttle, who started five games at Indiana but never held the permanent job and had an injury history, was viewed internally as Michigan's best option, as long as an injury to his throwing elbow could heal. The timeline for Tuttle's return extended into camp and eventually the season. Although many assumed Orji, who got 15 carries last season without attempting a pass, would get the first opportunity, former walk-on Davis Warren won the starting job with an excellent camp. Warren had played only 60 snaps entering the season.

Through eight games, Michigan has started all three quarterbacks, going back to Warren in last week's win against Michigan State, following a 21-7 loss at Illinois in which Tuttle led the offense. On Monday, coach Sherrone Moore suggested the team will be riding with Warren, saying, "Davis has earned the opportunity." Tuttle announced Monday night that he's medically retiring from the sport, citing a surgically repaired throwing elbow and a fifth concussion sustained in the Illinois game. Again, his overall health history suggested additional portal insurance was in order.

Meanwhile, Michigan ranks last among Power 4 teams and 130th nationally in passing offense. The Wolverines are the only P4 team that has yet to produce 225 passing yards in any game this season. Their QBs have completed just 12 passes of 20-plus yards, and their wide receivers have combined for a mere 404 receiving yards.

"That's insane," a Big Ten defensive coordinator said of Michigan's decision not to take a portal quarterback. "If I'm [opposing] teams, I'm loading up in the box and not letting them run the ball and make them throw."

Michigan's belief in a group with limited game experience cost an offense already replacing seven NFL draft picks, including wide receivers Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson. The Wolverines added just two transfers in December and used the spring portal mostly to shore up their defensive backfield.

Although Michigan hasn't been a volume portal program, its hit rate is strong, and an experienced quarterback could have helped balance out the offensive approach early on.

Florida State Seminoles (1-7)

Preseason AP rank: 10th

What went wrong: Portal class not paying off

Mike Norvell and his coaching staff took Florida State from three wins to 13 wins in four years, in part by masterfully evaluating and developing transfer talent. One could reasonably argue the Seminoles were doing this better than anybody in the portal era. But when it came time to reload for 2024 with players capable of effectively filling in for 10 NFL draft picks, something clearly went wrong.

Norvell has a long list of issues to tackle amid the Seminoles' stunning fall to 1-7. No single decision led to the program's worst eight-game start in 50 years. But this season will unfortunately be remembered as the year Florida State's staff bet on DJ Uiagalelei and got burned by too many recruiting misses.

Uiagalelei was one of four QBs in the portal this offseason who had started 40 or more college games. He had put enough on tape in his lone season at Oregon State to suggest he could be effective if he finds the right offensive fit. Florida State simultaneously pursued Cam Ward and Uiagalelei, and brought them in on back-to-back official visits. They pitched Ward on how they could maximize his potential.

"He liked their X's and O's and what they're going to try to do with the ball offensively, even down to stuff they thought he could improve with his stance and footwork," his father, Calvin Ward, said in December. "They would do things to play to his strengths. They'd looked at every throw he made in the last two years and compared those throws to Jordan Travis like, 'This is what we can do for you.'"

When Ward initially decided to declare for the draft on Jan. 1, Florida State immediately accepted a commitment from Uiagalelei. There was internal optimism exiting preseason practice that the fifth-year senior was poised for a great season.

In the five games he played before suffering a broken finger on his throwing hand, Uiagalelei produced a 35.8 QBR (111th in FBS) and a 53.8% completion percentage (118th) and averaged 5.75 yards per dropback (106th). He was pressured on 52% of all dropbacks. Now he's on the sideline and the Seminoles are having to find out what they have in redshirt freshman Brock Glenn and true freshman Luke Kromenhoek.

Uiagalelei hasn't played in a month, but he has still played more snaps this season than nearly all of the 16 other transfers Florida State added in the offseason.

Norvell and his staff brought in quite a few transfers they had preexisting relationships with, believing in their upside even if they'd been playing backup roles elsewhere. Edge rusher Marvin Jones Jr. and receiver Malik Benson have started every game but haven't played up to big expectations. The Seminoles brought in five backups from Alabama and haven't found much success with them. Others have earned rotational roles, but this group has not panned out like a top-10 portal class so far.

"Never would think I'd see a Florida State team like that: checked out," said an ACC assistant.

Said former Alabama coach Nick Saban on "College Gameday" earlier this year: "When it comes to Florida State, they've always taken the 'microwave fix,' I call it. To take a lot of guys from the portal, sometimes that works, sometimes it doesn't."

It's unfathomable that Florida State has slid all the way to No. 133 nationally in scoring offense and 82nd in scoring defense. The Seminoles are the only team left in the FBS that hasn't scored more than 21 points in any game this season. Even if Ward had picked the Seminoles, he wasn't going to get this fixed by himself.

Norvell is facing a critical offseason that will require difficult decisions and likely significant changes to get his program back on the trajectory to ACC title contention.

Oklahoma Sooners (4-4)

Preseason rank: 16th

What went wrong: Portal offensive line recruiting

Among the myriad issues contributing to Oklahoma's offensive decline under Brent Venables, it's hard to believe offensive line play has become a problem. Bill Bedenbaugh has coached 13 NFL draft picks and earned a reputation as one of the best offensive line coaches in college football over his 12 years with the Sooners. His track record when it comes to talent evaluation and development is excellent.

But the Sooners are struggling mightily up front in 2024. They've allowed an FBS-high 39 sacks and 71 tackles for loss through eight games after giving up a school-record 10 sacks in their 26-14 loss at Ole Miss on Saturday. Quarterback Jackson Arnold has been taken down 17 times over the past two weeks. Oklahoma's QBs have been pressured on 39% of dropbacks and sacked on 12%, and their run game is getting stopped for no gain or a loss on 20% of non-sack rushes.

The Sooners have tried seven different starting lineup combinations through eight games. It's a suboptimal situation in every way for an offense that is also missing five injured wide receivers and just fired its OC.

How did it get this bad? The problem starts with attrition. Nine of Oklahoma's 16 high school offensive line signees from 2019 to 2023 have transferred out of the program. The biggest loss was top-100 recruit Cayden Green, who transferred to Missouri after one season with the Sooners, but it's worth noting five of the departures ended up at the Group of 5 level or lower.

"Ideally, you have that position built up on the foundation of high school guys that have been in the program and developed over the course of time," Venables said last week. "But we've probably, I guess, we've missed on some guys."

Bedenbaugh has had recruiting success in the portal era with plug-and-play starters like Wanya Morris, Tyler Guyton and Walter Rouse. He typically signs one or two transfers a year who he believes can play up to Oklahoma's high standard. This offseason, though, he needed five after Green transferred and Guyton and Andrew Raym declared for the draft with eligibility remaining.

Oklahoma has 16 scholarship offensive linemen on its roster, but 10 of them joined the program this offseason. The five transfers brought a combined 98 career starts to a unit that had just 15 entering 2024. But the newcomers have not panned out as planned.

North Texas transfer Febechi Nwaiwu has started every game at right guard and, to his credit, has stayed on the field for 98% of the Sooners' snaps. Michael Tarquin (USC) has had to repeatedly switch between left and right tackle. Center Branson Hickman (SMU) missed time with injuries and lost his starting role. Spencer Brown (Michigan State) has filled in at times at right tackle. And left guard Geirean Hatchett (Washington) went down with a season-ending biceps injury.

Oklahoma has needed this transfer group to be great, because the depth clearly isn't there. The starters had to play every snap against Tennessee and all but two snaps at Auburn. On Saturday, four were in for every play against Ole Miss. When Jacob Sexton went down with an injury in the second quarter, Bedenbaugh had to replace him with redshirt freshman Logan Howland at left tackle, and the offense fell apart in the second half.

"They were average at best," said one SEC staffer who faced Oklahoma. "I know they are missing some guys due to injury, but I thought they struggled. They're limited athletically. It's just a bad offense right now, especially with the number of wide receivers missing. No team could survive that."

There weren't a bunch of All-SEC-caliber players that Bedenbaugh could've signed in this portal cycle. Those guys rarely hit the market. Your best hope if you're desperate for offensive line help is finding reliable starters who bring experience and leadership. When those guys don't work out or the players behind them don't step up, you end up in a tough spot. These issues can't get fixed overnight.

The Sooners need to get through these next four games without getting Arnold hurt and then they need to reassess how they'll build up this group going forward. Oklahoma will probably need more portal help, even if continuity is what's missing.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-5)

Preseason rank: 18th

What went wrong: Defensive setbacks

Mike Gundy surprised a lot of people in 2023 with a nine-win team that went all the way to the Big 12 championship game. With All-America running back Ollie Gordon II, seventh-year QB Alan Bowman and a senior-heavy team returning, it wasn't a stretch to expect this team to be in CFP contention.

The Cowboys aren't close. They're 0-5 in Big 12 play for the first time since Gundy's debut season in 2005 and are now in danger of snapping their 18-year bowl streak following a 38-28 road loss at Baylor.

Opponents loading the box to stop Gordon was to be expected, and his junior season (691 total yards, nine TDs) has been a challenging one. But the tougher problem to solve during their winless October has been the Cowboys' defense.

Oklahoma State has had 18 or more missed tackles in four of its past five games, according to TruMedia data, and have the fourth-most missed tackles in the FBS this season with 112. Gundy counted 21 missed tackles that led to 258 yards against Baylor, resulting in a season-high 565 total yards for the Bears.

This defense is missing preseason All-Big 12 linebackers Collin Oliver and Nick Martin, just got leading tackler Trey Rucker back from an injury and has dealt with many more hits to its two-deep. But this game was the first one that left Gundy concerned about players' effort level. Missing tackles is bad. Players not running to the ball is worse.

"We didn't play hard on defense," Gundy said Monday.

Gundy made a bold bet on Bryan Nardo entering 2023, hiring the young defensive coordinator away from D-II Gannon University with the hopes of emulating the Iowa State odd front scheme that has thrived against Big 12 offenses since 2017. Nardo's defense was bend-don't-break all season long, giving up the third-most 20-plus-yard plays in FBS, but it did get stops in critical moments.

There were many reasons for optimism entering Nardo's second year after losing just two starters, but injuries and inconsistency have made it tough to show significant progress. Kansas State and West Virginia blew the Cowboys out, but the other three losses were close calls. They fought hard against undefeated BYU in a road game that could've been a turning point for the season, but the defense eventually ran out of gas, giving up a 75-yard game-winning drive in the final minute.

The schedule ahead -- Arizona State, at TCU, Texas Tech, at Colorado -- is not easy. If this team still hopes to rally and get to six wins, it's going to take everything it has on defense. After the loss in Waco, Gundy told his players they need to do some soul searching. It's clear he'll have to do the same at the end of this disappointing season.

Arizona Wildcats (3-5)

Preseason rank: 21st

What went wrong: New offensive identity

The offseason excitement around Arizona was justifiably focused around the star players who opted to return under new coach Brent Brennan, namely quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, who've been playing together since they were eighth graders in California. But there were questions about the direction of the offense.

Some Big 12 assistants wondered whether Dino Babers, the former Syracuse coach beginning his second stint as Arizona's offensive coordinator (1998 to 2000), would truly be empowered, or whether the offense would operate more like the ones Brennan had at San Jose State.

The answer is the latter, as Babers handed off playcalling duties to tight ends coach Matt Adkins after the Wildcats' first loss. The main criticism of Arizona's offense, which has fallen from 18th nationally in scoring in 2023 to 100th this season, is too much of a focus around its stars.

"Everything goes through those two guys," said a defensive coordinator who faced Arizona. "They've got some other weapons, but it's like buddy ball all the time. [McMillan is] still going to get his yards, but if you don't let him get the explosives, they have a hard time driving the ball. I don't think they're committed to running the ball, even though they're pretty good."

McMillan has seen 88 targets, third most in FBS and 58 more than any teammate, and has turned them into 57 catches for 982 yards and five touchdowns. Arizona's offense hasn't found much it can do reliably well beyond force-feeding him the ball. They dropped 61 points on New Mexico in the season opener but haven't scored 30 or more since and are averaging 17.3 points per game against Power 4 defenses.

Fifita's completion percentage has dropped from 72.4% last season to 59.9% so far this fall, which includes only two games in which he has reached 62%. The third-year sophomore has 12 turnovers, twice as many as he did all last season, including at least one interception in each of the first seven games and three against BYU.

"If you can take away [McMillan], [Fifita] struggles," a Big 12 defensive coordinator said. "Where he makes so many of his plays is when he just flips it up to [McMillan] and that guy comes up with something spectacular. He's competitive, he's going to give you everything he's got and I like him, but it's kind of weird what's going on."

The Wildcats have dealt with too many injuries on a weekly basis on both sides of the ball, making it impossible to live up to expectations in their first season in the Big 12. But the rapid decline of a top-10 team in 2023 that's now mired in a four-game slide, one that could end up putting bowl eligibility out of reach, has left Brennan searching for answers. He's got a lot of work to do to get this program back on the right track.

USC Trojans (4-4)

Preseason rank: 23rd

What went wrong: Finishing games

What stands out about USC's inability to close out Big Ten opponents is how well the Trojans did exactly that in their opener, when they outscored LSU 14-3 in the final 18:34 of a heartening win. USC made the winning plays on both sides that night in Las Vegas, but since then has repeatedly fallen short in crunch time, leading to questions about coach Lincoln Riley, the schemes and the personnel.

An assistant on a team that faced USC described the Trojans as "frontrunners" -- fine when things are going well but lacking fortitude under more adverse conditions. A Big Ten coordinator pointed to the talent level.

"I didn't think they were as talented as what I thought they would be," he said. "They weren't as fast. That was shocking for me. Last time I saw them, they had all those skill players, but they didn't have it now. They looked totally different."

Riley's approach to roster-building has been under the microscope from the beginning. USC initially hit on several big-name transfers, including quarterback Caleb Williams, and wielded some NIL clout. The more recent transfer classes have included some solid names, and the defense is led by a group of imports, including Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Oregon State), Kamari Ramsey (UCLA), Mason Cobb (Oklahoma State) and Akili Arnold (Oregon State).

First-year defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn came in emphasizing bigger bodies to withstand a more physical Big Ten. USC responded with a teamwide weight gain of more than 1,400 pounds during the offseason.

"Being able to win the line of scrimmage is going to be even more important, because there's more teams in that conference that are going to test you up front," Lynn told ESPN in July.

So far, USC hasn't passed the test late in games. Facing a one-dimensional Michigan offense, USC's defense forced punts on five of six possessions and a fumble on the sixth, but couldn't stop the Wolverines on the decisive drive. Michigan went 89 yards on 10 plays, highlighted by Kalel Mullings' 63-yard run, and scored the game-winning touchdown.

Two weeks later at Minnesota, USC surrendered fourth-quarter touchdown drives of 65 and 75 yards, the second fueled by runs, as the Gophers rallied for a 24-17 win. USC stormed out to a 20-6 lead against Penn State before allowing scores on five of seven Nittany Lions possessions in the second half and overtime in a 33-30 loss. The Trojans allowed conversions of fourth-and-7 and fourth-and-10 on the game-tying drive at the end of regulation.

After a strong first half at Maryland, USC surrendered 22 points in the final 23:32 and struggled to harass quarterback Billy Edwards Jr.

"You learn from every game," Lynn said last week. "You learn a lot about your personnel, you learn a lot about your scheme, you learn a lot about you as a defense."

The learning process is ongoing, but USC still needs more players who can shine in the most important moments of games.