When the College Football Playoff selection committee begins to meet in November, it will have had 10 full weeks of games to evaluate, helping to determine its first top 25 ranking.
After participating in a recent mock selection exercise in Grapevine, Texas, designed to help the media understand the process in selecting the new 12-team field, there are three main inflection points worth underlining in the committee's process:
Who gets the first-round byes (awarded to the four highest-ranked conference champions)?
Who will host the first-round games (awarded to the higer ranked schools)?
Who gets the final spots? Teams the committee has ranked No. 11 and No. 12 could very well get bumped out of the bracket in favor of the fifth highest-ranked conference champion -- and in some scenarios the fourth highest-ranked conference champion.
The committee's weekly ranking is still the most critical step in determining the seeding for the 12-team bracket. The group does not look ahead, so what you'll find below doesn't either. It's not a prediction. It's a snapshot of what the committee might do today -- through three weeks of data. This is not a ranking. This is what the seeding and bracket would look like based on the committee's projected top 12 for this week.
This can and will change every week -- and this week there's a change at the top.
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Byes | First-round matchups
First four out | Next four out
Group of 5
Projected 12-team bracket
First-round byes
Note: Seeding is based on my projected top 12 from the CFP committee.
No. 1 seed Texas Longhorns: The Longhorns would earn the top seed as the SEC champion and the highest-ranked conference champion. This is based on Texas also being the committee's No. 1 team on Selection Day. Texas has one of the best wins in the country to date (at Michigan) and continues to roll while last week's No. 1 seed, Georgia, struggled to beat a mediocre Kentucky team on the road. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Texas is the most likely team to make the playoff (91%) and win it (22%).
No. 2 seed Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes would earn the No. 2 seed as the projected Big Ten champs and the second highest-ranked conference champion behind Texas. According to ESPN Analytics, Ohio State has a 64.5% chance to reach the Big Ten title game, and a 50.3% chance to win the league. The Buckeyes' toughest remaining game is Oct. 12 at Oregon, but ESPN Analytics still gives them a 61.9% chance to win.
No. 3 seed Miami Hurricanes: The Canes would earn this seed as the ACC champion. With its 62-0 drubbing of Ball State on Saturday, Miami's chances of reaching the playoff increased to 53%. ESPN Analytics gives Miami the best chance to make the ACC title game (51.2%) and win it (34.2%), ahead of both Clemson and Louisville.
No. 4 seed Kansas State Wildcats: The Wildcats would earn the fourth and final first-round bye as the projected Big 12 champion. They earned this spot after back-to-back wins against tough opponents, first on the road against Tulane and then against a ranked Arizona team on a short week. K-State is No. 10 in ESPN's strength of record metric, which has historically had a strong correlation to the committee's playoff teams.
First-round matchups (on campus)
No. 12 Northern Illinois Huskies at No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs
Winner plays: No. 4 Kansas State
Explaining the seeding: NIU would earn this spot as the committee's highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion, but remember: This is based on their résumé to this point. And right now, nobody in the Group of 5 has a better win than Northern Illinois at Notre Dame. It looks even more impressive after the Irish hammered Purdue on Saturday. Other strong Group of 5 contenders like Boise State and Memphis can eventually replace NIU, but if their records remain the same, the committee would give the Huskies the edge. In this scenario, NIU would bump out Tennessee for the No. 12 seed because there has to be a spot for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion. As the SEC runner-up, the highest Georgia could be seeded is No. 5 because the top four spots are reserved for conference champions.
No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 8 Oregon Ducks
Winner plays: No. 1 Texas
Explaining the seeding: Now that all five of the conference champions have been accounted for, this is where the bracket is composed entirely of at-large bids. Alabama (at Wisconsin) and Oregon (at rival Oregon State) both earned true nonconference road wins in Week 3, which will help their playoff résumés. This SEC-Big Ten matchup features two teams that didn't win their respective conferences and didn't play each other during the regular season. Consider the importance of seeding in this matchup: the winner has to face the No. 1 team in the country, and it will be fresh off of its bye week.
No. 11 Missouri Tigers at No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels
Winner plays: No. 3 Miami
Explaining the seeding: This all-SEC matchup would feature the committee's third-best SEC team (Ole Miss) against the fifth SEC team in its ranking. Ole Miss and Missouri don't face each other during the regular season, and neither face Miami -- the team waiting for them in the quarterfinals -- during the nonconference lineup.
No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 7 USC Trojans
Winner plays: No. 2 Ohio State
Explaining the seeding: The committee doesn't factor in rematches when compiling its top 25. During the seeding process, there won't be any modifications made to avoid rematches or games between schools from the same conference. And this is a rematch. Penn State will travel to USC on Oct. 12. The winner of this game would face Ohio State and Penn State hosts the Buckeyes on Nov. 2. USC doesn't play Ohio State during the regular season.
First four out
Tennessee Volunteers: The Vols have looked the part of a playoff team, and if they have another complete performance this week at Oklahoma, which will be their first real test of the season, they'll move up.
Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys didn't do anything to hurt themselves in Saturday's lopsided win against Tulsa, but K-State has put together back-to-back impressive wins against better competition. This will settle itself on the field on Sept. 28 when Oklahoma State travels to K-State -- or sooner, if the Cowboys lose to Utah this week.
Oklahoma Sooners: The Sooners are still on the bubble because they've had three straight home games against unranked Group of 5 opponents. Their standing can change quickly this week, though, with a huge opportunity at home against Tennessee.
Clemson Tigers: If the Tigers can win the ACC, which they're good enough to do, they'll be in the playoff. And they don't face Miami during the regular season. ESPN Analytics gives Clemson at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games.
Next four out
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: The loss to NIU will haunt the Irish all season, but if Notre Dame continues to play like it did against Purdue -- and runs the table -- the committee could reward them with a spot. According to ESPN Analytics, Notre Dame has the 11th-best chance in the country to reach the CFP (37.8%). That increased 15% from what it was after the NIU loss.
Boise State Broncos: The Broncos put up a better fight against Oregon than Oregon State did -- and Boise State nearly beat the Ducks on their home turf, while Oregon State had homefield advantage. The Broncos are projected to win each of their remaining games, which would almost certainly lock them into the CFP as the MWC champ.
Utah Utes: If Utah wins the Big 12, it will be in the CFP, but uncertainty looms as long as injured QB Cam Rising's status is questionable. Utah will have its first chance to build its playoff résumé on Saturday at Oklahoma State.
LSU Tigers: The Tigers were fortunate to escape South Carolina with a win on Saturday, but they have a lot to clean up if they're going to be taken seriously in the CFP race. Miscues like an interception, a fumble off a bad snap, a blocked punt and a missed extra point were not pretty.
Dropped from the bubble: Michigan
Group of 5 Power Rankings
1. Northern Illinois Huskies (Mid-American): The Huskies are ranked No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record metric, which means the average Top 25 team would have just a 36% chance to achieve the same 2-0 record against the same opponents as NIU. Not even Georgia or Texas can boast that résumé.
2. Boise State Broncos (Mountain West): The Broncos might be the most talented team on this list, but they've got to get a signature win or two to earn a boost. It's not going to happen this week against Portland State.
3. UNLV Rebels (Mountain West): The Rebels' résumé will get the committee's attention. They have two true road trip wins against Houston and Kansas, both power conference opponents. The Mountain West is a strong CFP conference, but ESPN Analytics gives Boise State a 58.1% chance to beat UNLV on Oct. 25.
4. Memphis Tigers (American Athletic): The Tigers' chances of reaching the CFP (22%) jumped 12 percentage points after their win at Florida State. ESPN Analytics projects Memphis will win each of its remaining games -- except for the regular-season finale at Tulane.
5. Toledo Rockets (Mid-American): The Rockets entered the CFP conversation this week thanks to their 41-17 win at Mississippi State on Saturday. Toledo now has a 13% chance to reach the playoff, fifth behind Boise State, Memphis, UNLV and NIU, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.