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2024 College Football Playoff, bowl projections after Week 2

Nico Iamaleava and Tennessee looked sharp in a 51-10 drubbing of NC State. Nicholas Faulkner/Icon Sportswire

In Week 2 of the college football season, we had a major upset -- and reverberations throughout the College Football Playoff and bowl pictures -- as Northern Illinois stunned Notre Dame at South Bend.

Beyond that, there were some close calls (Oregon-Boise State and Penn State-Bowling Green the most notable), some shaky starts (Alabama-South Florida, for one) and some impressive performances (Texas over Michigan, Tennessee over NC State).

How did it all impact our playoff and bowl projections?

In the new, expanded 12-team playoff, the five highest-ranked conference champions will make the field along with the next seven highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be awarded first-round byes, with the other eight teams meeting at the campus sites of Seeds 5 through 8.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year's Six bowls, with this season's national championship game scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 36-game slate of bowl games, from the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 14 to the Bahamas Bowl on Jan. 4.

We're here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the CFP will play out, every week until the actual matchups are set on Selection Day on Dec. 8.

Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games

Dec. 20-21 -- ABC/ESPN or TNT Sports*
Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas
Schlabach: No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Texas

Bonagura: No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 11 Kansas State at No. 6 Ole Miss

Bonagura: No. 10 Missouri at No. 7 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Tennessee

Bonagura: No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 USC
Schlabach: No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Penn State

* Specific times and networks for each game TBD

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: Texas was obviously the big winner in Week 2, with its dominant win against defending national champion Michigan. Outside of the Longhorns, few teams in the Top 25 had performances that enhanced my perception of them. In a strange way, Boise State had a better showing in a loss than several other teams had in wins by going on the road and narrowly falling to Oregon. Conventional logic says since the Broncos lost, they should fall, but the game showed -- at least for one night -- there wasn't much of a gap between them and a top-10 team. I don't feel good about keeping Penn State in the playoff this week after their abysmal showing in a win against Bowling Green, but that speaks more about the lack of other strong options. Arizona, Oklahoma State and Kansas State in the Big 12 weren't great, the ACC still feels like a one-bid league and at what point are there too many SEC teams?

Schlabach: There are never too many SEC teams -- as long as they're among the top 12 teams in the FBS. I went with five SEC teams this week, although I couldn't decide whether Alabama or Missouri should be the last one in my bracket. Georgia, Ohio State and Texas have looked better than everyone else so far. Texas' dominant win at the Big House was a big statement, as was Tennessee's rout of NC State in Charlotte, North Carolina. It's still too early to make any sort of assessment of Ole Miss because the Rebels haven't played anyone yet (the same goes for Missouri). Alabama, Oregon and Penn State didn't have great weeks, but they'll stay in my top 12 for now. The Crimson Tide will have to do a better job of protecting quarterback Jalen Milroe if they're going to survive in the SEC. I'm not ready to proclaim that USC's defense is good enough yet. In addition to the Trojans, I also considered Clemson, Oklahoma and Arizona for the final at-large spot.


CFP quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

CFP quarterfinals at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Utah
Schlabach: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Utah

Wednesday, Jan. 1

CFP quarterfinals at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
1 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 3 Miami
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Miami

CFP quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 7 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Ohio State

CFP quarterfinals at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 8 USC vs. No. 1 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 8 Penn State vs. No. 1 Georgia

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: Let's talk about Utah for a second. The Utes were completely dominant with Cam Rising in at quarterback, building a 23-0 lead against Baylor late in the second quarter. But when he exited with what is expected to be a minor hand injury, the Utes were a completely different team. If Rising is healthy, I think Utah is the clear Big 12 favorite, but if he's out for any extended period of time, the Utes will fall back to the pack. It's a massive drop-off from him to true freshman Isaac Wilson. Either way, the way Texas looked, I'm not sure Utah will have the horses to stay with the Horns even at its best in this hypothetical matchup.

Schlabach: My top four remained the same and I have three of them -- Georgia, Ohio State and Miami -- advancing to the semifinals. I think Texas is definitely one of the top four teams at the moment, but the Longhorns would be the fifth seed without a conference championship. Tennessee's offense looks very explosive with quarterback Nico Iamaleava, and it appears the Volunteers have taken a big step forward on defense. They surrendered only 143 yards of offense and forced three turnovers in a 51-10 rout of the Wolfpack. The Vols will have to travel to Oklahoma on Sept. 21 and Georgia on Nov. 16, and they'll play Alabama at home on Oct. 19.


CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 9

CFP semifinals at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 1 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 1 Georgia

Friday, Jan. 10

CFP semifinals at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Ohio State

Monday, Jan. 20

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Georgia

National championship breakdown

Bonagura: Going through this exercise a few times now has revealed a significant flaw in the 12-team playoff format. I'm all for the top four conference champions receiving byes in the first round. It staves off the two Super Leagues' dominance for at least a little while longer, but after the quarterfinal round, the playoff should reseed. As we enter this era of the expanded SEC and Big Ten conferences, it's going to be common for the No. 5 seed to actually be the second-best team in college football. It won't happen every year, but it's going to happen with some consistency. (The No. 6 seed is also often going to be a higher-ranked team than the No. 4 seed.) That means the No. 1 seed is going to be put on the same side of the bracket as the second-best team at times. It defeats the purpose of seeding teams in the first place.

Schlabach: I couldn't agree with Kyle more about the reseeding. I'm all for rewarding conference champions, but unless Miami runs the table in the ACC or Utah, Kansas State or Oklahoma State pulls away in the Big 12, there's little argument that any of them will likely be as good as Texas. The Longhorns and Bulldogs would be a heck of a matchup in the Orange Bowl, and Ohio State and Miami would prove that you can build winning teams through the transfer portal. I still have Georgia and Ohio State meeting in the CFP National Championship Game, with the Bulldogs winning their third title in four years.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 14

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Alabama State vs. NC Central
Schlabach: Alabama State vs. NC Central

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Coastal Carolina

Tuesday, Dec. 17

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: San Diego State vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Troy vs. North Texas

Wednesday, Dec. 18

Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. East Carolina

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: UNLV vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: California vs. Boise State

Thursday, Dec. 19

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
7 p.m., ESPN2

Bonagura: Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Appalachian State

Friday, Dec. 20

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Troy vs. Tulsa
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Western Kentucky

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Boston College vs. James Madison

Monday, Dec. 23

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Texas State vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Marshall vs. Middle Tennessee

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State

Tuesday, Dec. 24

Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Sam Houston vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Sam Houston vs. Colorado State

Thursday, Dec. 26

Detroit Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Central Michigan vs. Maryland
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Michigan State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Illinois vs. Kansas
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. UCF

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Florida State vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: San José State vs. Georgia Southern

Friday, Dec. 27

Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Pitt vs. Wisconsin
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Arkansas

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: BYU vs. Army
Schlabach: SMU vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
7 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: UCF vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. South Carolina

DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m.
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Arizona

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: South Carolina vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Washington

Saturday, Dec. 28

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Tulane vs. SMU
Schlabach: Tulane vs. Florida State

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Indiana
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Wisconsin

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: San José State vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: Air Force vs. Texas State

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Louisville vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Oklahoma State

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network

Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. Nevada
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. UNLV

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
5:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: NC State vs. Memphis
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. South Florida

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
7:30 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Kansas vs. USC

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Baylor vs. California
Schlabach: TCU vs. Oregon State

Monday, Dec. 30

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Nebraska vs. LSU
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Kentucky

Tuesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Iowa vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Oklahoma

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Washington
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Washington State

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Missouri

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. LSU

Thursday, Jan. 2

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ESPN

Bonagura: Boston College vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Texas A&M

Friday, Jan. 3

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
4 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: TCU vs. James Madison
Schlabach: BYU vs. UTSA

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Rutgers
Schlabach: NC State vs. Rutgers

Saturday, Jan. 4

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11 a.m., ESPN2

Bonagura: Florida International vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Miami (Ohio)