The College Football Playoff will expand to 12 teams this fall, opening the door for teams that otherwise wouldn't have gotten within field goal range of the top four.
The good news? Your team's chances just increased.
The bad news? So did everyone else's.
Using Mark Schlabach's Way-Too-Early Top 25, we look at 25 possible paths to the new 12-team CFP. This is how each team can impress the committee, and how different their respective paths will look in the new format.
1. Georgia Bulldogs
How to impress the committee: Win outside of Athens. Georgia has four true road games and two neutral site games (Aug. 31 vs. Clemson and Nov. 2 vs. Florida). The Bulldogs can earn some major respect in the committee meeting room if they beat Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas -- likely all ranked opponents -- on the road.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: The CFP seeding will impact the SEC runner-up. There will still be a ton of pressure to win the SEC because the loser of the conference championship could wind up as the No. 5 seed -- even if it is a top-four team on Selection Day. That means Georgia would have to win four straight postseason games (and play a total of 17) to win the national title. It's also possible that Georgia plays the same SEC opponent three times -- once during the regular season, again in the conference title game and again in the CFP bracket -- because the SEC eliminated divisions, and the bracket allows for the possibility.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
How to impress the committee: A winning record against the Big Three: Oregon, Penn State and Michigan. The Buckeyes might not have enough on the rest of their schedule to go 1-2 against those teams. A nonconference lineup that includes three straight home games against Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall won't push the Buckeyes ahead of another contender with a better résumé. Iowa could be a top-25 team, but that might be the only other ranked opponent Ohio State faces if it doesn't reach the Big Ten title game.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: In the CFP era, the Big Ten race -- and in turn the conference's best hope at a playoff representative -- has boiled down to Ohio State vs. Michigan. Now, the Big Ten is bigger than The Game, as difficult as that might be for traditionalists to digest. While bragging rights will carry impact, adding Oregon to the schedule as a conference opponent is just as significant in the committee meeting room. Even in a four-team field, Ohio State was able to earn a CFP bid without winning the Big Ten, and that won't change -- the odds of it happening will only increase -- as long as the Buckeyes look the part against ranked opponents more often than not.
3. Oregon Ducks
How to impress the committee: Assert itself immediately in the Big Ten with wins against Ohio State and Michigan. If there's one way to make a statement that the Ducks are a playoff team, that would be it -- beating the league's two heavyweights, including defending national champion Michigan in Ann Arbor. Oregon has an extremely difficult schedule that includes road trips to Wisconsin, rival Oregon State, UCLA and Purdue. The travel will be grueling and new, but the committee will consider those factors. Not every team in the Big Ten will get a shot at the Big Two, giving Oregon an opportunity to separate itself.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: It's going to be challenging to reach the Big Ten championship game. It's also possible the Ducks could face Ohio State (or another team) three times -- once during the regular season, again in the conference championship game and one more time in the 12-team bracket.
4. Texas Longhorns
How to impress the committee: With another big nonconference win, this time at Michigan. Last year's win at Alabama impacted the committee through Selection Day and was a major reason Texas finished in the top four. Strength of schedule will still play an integral role in the selection committee's weekly rankings, and a road win against the defending national champs (even if they look much different), will still resonate in the room. With seven home games, the trip to Ann Arbor will also be one of the best opportunities to impress the committee with a statement road win. It will also be a critical cushion for the Longhorns as they head into their first season in the SEC and face Georgia on Oct. 19. If Texas doesn't beat Michigan and loses to Georgia, the Longhorns might need to win the SEC in their first season in the league to earn a playoff spot.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: It's a double-edged sword, as Texas will have more opportunities within its league to impress the committee -- but that also means a more challenging path to its conference title. There's also the possibility of losing to Georgia during the regular season, but then facing the Bulldogs again in the SEC title game -- and again in the 12-team bracket.
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
How to impress the committee: Learn from past mistakes. In Year 1 under Marcus Freeman, it wasn't the loss to Ohio State that doomed the Irish, it was the shocking upset to Marshall the following week. Last year, a miscommunication left only 10 players on the field for the final play of the game and contributed to the loss to Ohio State. If Notre Dame can finally put it all together -- and avoid an upset along the way -- it has a manageable schedule with enough highlights to impress the committee.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: The Irish can lose. In the four-team system, the pressure was immense for Notre Dame to go undefeated -- or finish with only one loss and hope its résumé was better than any Power 5 conference champion. Now, Notre Dame has a little more margin for error because of the opportunity for one of the seven at-large bids. Because Notre Dame is independent and can't win a conference title, though, the highest seed it can earn is No. 5 -- even if it finishes in the top four on Selection Day. The top four seeds are reserved for conference champs. In this system, Notre Dame can never receive a first-round bye.
6. Ole Miss Rebels
How to impress the committee: Defensive improvement that contributes to owning the back half of the schedule and earning a statement win. Ole Miss has been like the Penn State of the SEC -- dominating lesser competition but falling short against the teams it needs to beat to win the league. Last year, the Rebels beat everyone but Alabama and Georgia. In 2022, they started out 8-1 but unraveled down the stretch. The program has improved each season under Lane Kiffin, but the Rebels likely have to finish with a winning record against LSU, Oklahoma and Georgia for a playoff bid. They also need to avoid an upset early, with the possibility they don't face any ranked opponents until Oct. 12 at LSU.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: This should be drastically different for Ole Miss, which no longer has to worry about beating retired legendary coach Nick Saban at Alabama, or winning the SEC's now-defunct West division, which was arguably the toughest in the sport. Last year's final CFP rankings show how much the door has opened for the SEC, which would have had five teams in the top 11 (No. 3 Texas, No. 4 Alabama, No. 6 Georgia, No. 9 Missouri and No. 11 Ole Miss) had realignment already been in place. No. 12 OU would have been displaced by C-USA champ Liberty for the last spot.
7. Missouri Tigers
How to impress the committee: With multiple statement wins against conference opponents. Again. Last year was a roaring success that culminated with a win against Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl -- a two-loss regular season that would have sufficed for a playoff spot in a 12-team bracket. And that was without beating LSU and Georgia. If Missouri can take the next step and earn a winning record during a key midseason stretch that includes road trips to Texas A&M and Alabama -- plus a home game against Oklahoma -- the Tigers should again finish in the top 12.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: Two losses won't keep them out, but finishing in the No. 12 spot could. In each of the past two seasons, the team that finished No. 12 on Selection Day would have gotten booted out of the bracket in favor of the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion.
8. Penn State Nittany Lions
How to impress the committee: Go at least 2-1 against your former Pac-12 opponents. A two-loss Penn State would have finished in the CFP last year, but three losses is likely a deal-buster. PSU doesn't have to play Michigan, but it hosts Ohio State on Nov. 2 -- right after back-to-back road trips to USC and Wisconsin, and before hosting Washington. Yikes. If Penn State loses to Ohio State, it has only one more mulligan. It certainly can't avoid a season-opening loss at West Virginia, which is no longer a gimme. The reality is Penn State almost certainly has to beat two of the three old Pac-12 teams on its schedule -- or beat conference favorite Ohio State.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: The Nittany Lions no longer have to beat Ohio State and Michigan in the same season to make the playoff. The significance of that can't be understated. Those two programs kept the Nittany Lions out of the CFP for the entire decade of the four-team field -- even when Penn State found a way to win the Big Ten. That doesn't mean it's going to be any easier, though. PSU now has to travel to USC this fall. The Nittany Lions are at Wisconsin and home against Ohio State and Washington. It's going to be grueling, but if PSU is really a top-10 team under James Franklin, then it should be able to beat ranked opponents not named Ohio State or Michigan.
9. Alabama Crimson Tide
How to impress the committee: Win without Saban. No, really. This is going to be the most pressure-packed, scrutinized coaching job in the country. Kalen DeBoer has a proven track record of building national championship programs. This is one he has to maintain, and he needs to avoid a 2-2 start to September. Alabama is at Wisconsin on Sept. 14, which should be markedly better in Year 2 under Luke Fickell. The following week the Tide host Georgia. One September loss isn't going to doom the Tide, but they also have road trips to Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma on the schedule.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: The expanded field comes at just the right time for Alabama, because DeBoer is going to need some margin for error -- and some patience from fans -- in his first season. The biggest difference for the Tide could be in the seeding. If Alabama is a top-four team on Selection Day but doesn't win the SEC, it will drop to the No. 5 seed behind the top four conference champions. That means Alabama would have to win four straight games to win the national title. It could also face Georgia three times if they play in the conference championship and the CFP.
10. Utah Utes
How to impress the committee: Win with style. Utah's schedule isn't easy, but it's also not as daunting as that of many contenders listed above. So the Utes might need some style points against unranked competition -- and they certainly need to avoid an upset. Arizona and Oklahoma State are their only two opponents ranked in the Way-too-Early Top 25. Utah would likely add another ranked opponent to its résumé in the Big 12 championship game, but the lineup lacks a blockbuster matchup that could help it earn a higher seed.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: As long as Utah wins the Big 12, it will earn a trip to the CFP -- even if its schedule isn't as strong as those of other contenders. The only question is where Utah would be seeded. The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed to make the playoff -- but only the top four earn first-round byes. More often than not, the four byes will be awarded to the conference champs in the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12. There's always the possibility, though, that one of those conferences could produce a three-loss champion, for example, that could be ranked behind an undefeated Group of 5 champion.
11. Arizona Wildcats
How to impress the committee: Road wins. It starts in September, with back-to-back trips to Kansas State and Utah, two teams that should be ranked contenders capable of winning the Big 12. If Arizona is undefeated heading into October, we should take the Wildcats seriously as a playoff contender under first-year coach Brent Brennan. Those road wins would put Arizona in the Big 12 lead and give it a cushion down the stretch. Even if UCF isn't ranked, the committee will appreciate the 2,100-mile trip to Florida against a respectable team.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: Arizona no longer has to beat the likes of USC and Washington to win its league -- which it was unable to do last year, even with former coach Jedd Fisch. Kansas State and Utah will be its most difficult road games, as well as BYU. But that doesn't mean it will be easy, especially in a league that has a conference game in the state of Florida. However, if Arizona can win the Big 12, it's in. If it doesn't, the question will be whether there is enough meat on the rest of its schedule to earn an at-large bid.
12. LSU Tigers
How to impress the committee: Win September. LSU has two unique nonconference opportunities, and beating new Big Ten teams USC and UCLA would help the Tigers separate from other at-large contenders if they don't win the SEC. LSU will face USC in the season opener at the Vegas Kickoff Classic at Allegiant Stadium, and the Tigers host UCLA on Sept. 21. If LSU can go 2-0 against the L.A. schools and avoid an upset Sept. 14 at South Carolina, it will have the cushion it needs going into an SEC schedule that includes Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: This No. 12 spot might be the unluckiest in the sport. If LSU finishes as the committee's No. 12 team on Selection Day, it could get bumped out in favor of the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the playoff. Last year, No. 12 Oklahoma would have been excluded at the expense of No. 23 Liberty, the C-USA champ. In 2022, No. 12 Washington would have been bumped in favor of No. 16 Tulane, the American Athletic Conference champ. Even the mighty SEC won't be immune to this possibility in the 12-team format.
13. Michigan Wolverines
How to impress the committee: Beat Texas on Sept. 7. Nonconference games still matter to the committee and could help Michigan earn an at-large bid if it doesn't win the Big Ten. If their résumés are similar, head-to-head results will matter, too. If Texas and Michigan BOTH fail to win their respective leagues, the winner of this game could have the edge on Selection Day if they are in contention for an at-large bid. If Texas does win the SEC in its first year in the league, it's also possible Michigan could ultimately claim a win against the SEC champ -- the same way Texas did last year against Alabama.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: It's going to be much more difficult to win the Big Ten and earn an automatic bid. Over the past three seasons, Michigan has cruised through an abysmal nonconference lineup before dominating its conference competition. All of that changes this season when the Wolverines host the Longhorns, and their conference lineup includes USC, Washington, Oregon and Ohio State. Even an at-large bid could be difficult, considering the new-look defending national champs lost coach Jim Harbaugh and quarterback J.J. McCarthy to the NFL, among several notable others. This is a schedule tailor-made to impress the committee -- even as a Big Ten runner-up. The question is whether Michigan will survive it in a year of significant transition.
14. Oklahoma Sooners
How to impress the committee: Finish strong. With four straight home games to start the season, Oklahoma's best opportunities to boost its résumé are in its final five games -- three of which are on the road (Oct. 26 at Ole Miss, Nov. 9 at Missouri and Nov. 30 at LSU). With a home game against Alabama on Nov. 23, Oklahoma could end the regular season against three straight ranked opponents. If OU doesn't win the SEC in its first season in the league, a winning record in November could mean the difference between an at-large bid and a lesser bowl. Nonconference games against Maine (also tucked into that late-season stretch), Houston, Tulane and Temple make winning those bigger November games even more necessary.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: While it will be more challenging to win a conference title in the 16-team SEC, Oklahoma will consistently face more ranked opponents than it did in the Big 12, which will help boost its résumé for an at-large spot.
15. Florida State Seminoles
How to impress the committee: With a Nov. 9 win at Notre Dame. If FSU wins the ACC again, it's in, but if it doesn't, this is the kind of statement road win that will help the Noles earn an at-large bid. The head-to-head result could also be critical because Notre Dame's only path to the playoff is through an at-large bid. If FSU and Notre Dame both finish with the same record -- and the Noles don't win the conference title -- the head-to-head winner of this game could have the edge on Selection Day.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: An undefeated FSU that wins the ACC won't be left out again. Period. What could happen, though, is the ACC champion could be snubbed for a first-round bye. That would have been the case in 2022, when ACC champion Pitt was ranked No. 12 on Selection Day with two losses -- behind American Athletic Conference champion and undefeated Cincinnati. The Bearcats have since moved to the Big 12, but if the ACC (or the Big Ten, SEC or Big 12) produces a two- or three-loss champion, it could possibly be ranked behind a stellar undefeated conference champion from the AAC, MAC, C-USA, Sun Belt or Mountain West. That means it would have to win four straight games to win the national title.
16. Tennessee Volunteers
How to impress the committee: With a winning record against Oklahoma, Georgia and Alabama -- and a perfect 4-0 nonconference record that includes a Sept. 7 win against NC State. If the Vols are a playoff team, they shouldn't lose to Chattanooga, NC State, Kent State or UTEP. And if they do lose to NC State, which should be a respectable top-25 team (see No. 18 below), they can't afford to go 1-2 against OU, Georgia and Bama. Tennessee only has four true road games this year, including OU and Georgia. If the Vols are going to earn an at-large bid, those are the kind of road wins that will help them do it.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: The Vols still have to face Georgia -- in Athens on Nov. 16 -- but they don't necessarily have to defeat the Dawgs to earn a spot in the SEC title game. Unlike before, when Tennessee was stuck in the same SEC East Division, the league will now pit its top two teams against each other in the SEC championship game. That means Tennessee could lose to Georgia during the regular season, but still face it again in the conference title game -- assuming, of course, that the Vols beat their other SEC opponents. If Tennessee doesn't win the league, it can still earn a spot as one of the seven at-large teams.
17. Oklahoma State Cowboys
How to impress the committee: Win the Big 12. It's going to be difficult for the Cowboys to get an at-large bid unless some specific things work in their favor -- like a Week 2 win against Arkansas AND the Razorbacks finish as a CFP top-25 team. The reality is that even with two rounds of conference expansion, the Big 12 hasn't replaced what OU and Texas brought to the league in brand and competition. There are only two Way-too-Early top 25 teams on the Cowboys' schedule -- Sept. 21 vs. Utah and Sept. 28 at K-State. If Oklahoma State doesn't win the league, that lineup probably won't be enough to edge out another contender with a stronger résumé.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: If Oklahoma State does win the Big 12, it's guaranteed a spot in the playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. The Cowboys have played for the league title twice in the past three years and lost both times. While it's certainly possible they can earn one of the seven at-large spots, it's going to be difficult to compete with the Big Ten and SEC's second and even third-best teams. That's where future scheduling will be important, and Oklahoma State is already on it with series against Oregon, Alabama, Nebraska and Arkansas. While it has traditionally lined up an FCS program, that's something that might be reconsidered in the future to best position the program for a spot in the CFP -- though the SEC plays FCS teams and doesn't seem to have a problem.
18. NC State Wolfpack
How to impress the committee: Win the ACC and win on the road. NC State has a chance to beat Tennessee in nearby Charlotte, N.C., but it also has conference road trips to Clemson, Cal, Georgia Tech on a Thursday night and at rival North Carolina. While Cal might not be ranked, the committee will still appreciate the difficulty of the cross-country trip to its new ACC opponent. If the Pack loses to the Vols but still wins the ACC, it will earn a playoff bid as one of the five highest-ranked conference champs. If Florida State wins the ACC, the winner of the NC State-Clemson game will have the edge if both are in contention for an at-large spot.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: NC State doesn't have to be concerned about being excluded if it wins the league. It's possible, though, that if NC State loses to Tennessee and loses to an ACC opponent -- finishing as a two-loss ACC champ -- it could be snubbed for a first-round bye. If there is an undefeated conference champion from the American Athletic Conference, MAC, Sun Belt, C-USA or MWC that is ranked higher, the Pack could wind up as the fifth-best conference champ guaranteed a spot. If NC State doesn't win the ACC, it could face an uphill battle for one of the at-large spots without enough statement wins or convincing performances.
19. Clemson Tigers
How to impress the committee: Go 2-0 against the SEC. Clemson opens the regular season against Georgia and ends it against rival South Carolina. Even if Clemson were to finish as the ACC runner-up, that should be enough for the Tigers to make a strong case for an at-large bid.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: When Clemson has the talent, it has the path, and that won't change. The Tigers have been to the four-team CFP 11 times -- as many as Ohio State and trailing only Alabama (14). Clemson is 2-2 in four national championship game appearances. The CFP hasn't been the obstacle recently. If Clemson can get back to the top of the ACC, it can get back to the playoff.
20. Kansas State Wildcats
How to impress the committee: Win the Big 12. This is a challenging schedule with six road games, including a possible trap nonconference game Sept. 7 at Tulane. Arizona, Oklahoma State and Kansas are its only Way-too-Early top 25 opponents, though. The Wildcats avoid Utah during the regular season but could face the Utes in the Big 12 title game. If K-State beats Utah to win the league, the Wildcats should earn a first-round bye as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. The question is if K-State's résumé will be strong enough for an at-large bid if it doesn't win the Big 12. The selection committee will respect difficult road trips, but the key will continue to be how many CFP top 25 opponents K-State defeated by the end of the season.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: If K-State can win the Big 12, it will earn a spot to the playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. There is more margin for error because even a two- or three-loss Big 12 champion will earn a spot in the playoff, but it could lose the first-round bye to an undefeated Group of 5 conference champion in that scenario -- especially if K-State loses to Tulane, and the Green Wave goes on to have a spectacular season as AAC champs.
21. Louisville Cardinals
How to impress the committee: Go 3-0 on the road against Notre Dame, Clemson and Kentucky, and hope they're all still ranked on Selection Day. Beating Notre Dame wasn't enough last year to compensate for losses to Pitt and Kentucky, and it won't be again. Louisville will be a lock for the CFP if it wins the ACC -- regardless how it fares against Notre Dame and rival Kentucky -- but the Cardinals could make a case for an at-large bid because of their schedule strength. The committee has an appreciation for road wins, especially against those opponents, and a rival like Kentucky. Miami is also a Way-too-Early Top 25 opponent. If those teams are ranked on Selection Day, and Louisville loses a close game in the ACC championship -- especially if it's to a Clemson team it defeated during the regular season -- the Cardinals could have a case for a playoff berth.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: The ACC champ is in, period. Because of the ACC's unique agreement with Notre Dame, and Louisville's long-standing rivalry with Kentucky, there are built-in nonconference opportunities to impress the committee in most years. With Cal, Stanford and SMU joining the league, though, there are going to be difficult cross-country road trips, starting Nov. 16 at Stanford.
22. Kansas Jayhawks
How to impress the committee: Win the Big 12. A nonconference schedule that includes FCS Lindenwood, a respectable road trip to Illinois and a home game against UNLV won't separate Kansas from other CFP contenders if the Jayhawks don't win the conference. Kansas doesn't face Utah or Arizona during the regular season, so the Oct. 26 game at K-State could be the only opportunity against a ranked opponent.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: Kansas can reach the CFP if it wins the Big 12.
23. Kentucky Wildcats
How to impress the committee: There's no shortage of opportunities -- Georgia, at Ole Miss, at Tennessee, at Texas, Louisville -- but the Wildcats have to win at least three of those to be taken seriously by the committee. Kentucky's first four games are at home -- including Sept. 14 vs. Georgia -- before traveling to Ole Miss on Sept. 28. If Kentucky has two losses before October, it will be under pressure to win out to have a chance at an at-large bid. If Louisville and Kentucky are both in contention for an at-large bid, that head-to-head result will give the winner the edge.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: Kentucky doesn't have to win the SEC to reach the playoff, and it no longer has to navigate through the SEC East division to have a shot at the conference championship game. The top two teams will face each other. That doesn't mean it's going to be any easier, though, as a road trip to Texas now looms as a conference game.
24. Miami Hurricanes
How to impress the committee: Take a knee? Just kidding. No really, though, Miami can't lose to Georgia Tech again, or suffer an upset because of self-inflicted wounds. If the Canes are going to take the next step, they have to win convincingly against unranked, subpar teams and they have to earn a few statement wins against ranked opponents. There might only be two such opportunities during the regular season -- Oct. 19 at Louisville and Oct. 26 vs. Florida State. While the schedule is challenging with six road games -- including the Oct. 5 trip to Cal -- there isn't a blockbuster game that's going to help separate the Canes from another contender that doesn't win its league. Miami likely needs to win the ACC -- or hope a win at Florida and a handful of other opponents means more to the committee on Selection Day than it appears to now.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: The ACC no longer has to worry about its conference champion being excluded. It's possible Miami could face the same opponent three times, though, as the Canes could see Louisville or FSU during the regular season, again in the ACC title game and again in the CFP.
25. Texas A&M Aggies
How to impress the committee: Beat Notre Dame in the season opener. The Aggies have a challenging schedule that also includes Missouri, LSU and Texas, but it all starts against the Irish because of the importance of the head-to-head result on Selection Day. If the Aggies don't win the SEC, they are going to be in a fight for one of the seven at-large spots -- which is also Notre Dame's only path to the playoff. If Texas A&M and Notre Dame finish with similar records, the winner of this game will have an edge in the final ranking if there isn't room for them both.
How the path will be different in the 12-team field: No Jimbo Fisher, no Saban, no SEC West. The differences are glaring. The Aggies don't have to win the SEC to reach the CFP, but they will still need to avoid upsets and earn statement wins for an at-large spot. Texas A&M will also be competing against multiple teams in its own conference for one of those spots. With the SEC champion a lock, and its runner-up a sure bet, Texas A&M has little margin for error to join its own pack.