Rest assured, Florida State fans, an undefeated Power 5 champion will not be excluded from the College Football Playoff next season.
In the new 12-team CFP, the field will likely include the five highest-ranked conference champions plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, which means any team that does not win its league will need to have an impressive résumé to earn an at-large bid.
Strength of schedule still matters -- that includes the difficulty of the league opponents and the nonconference lineup. The new-look playoff, combined with jarring conference realignment, will change how the committee views that metric this fall.
(If you need a crash course, here's a reminder of what the sport will look like this fall.)
Texas vs. Georgia is a blockbuster matchup -- for the SEC race. The Washington vs. Michigan rematch of CFP finalists is must-see TV -- in the Big Ten conference. And the Arizona-Utah game will be critical -- to the Big 12 conference standings.
There's at least one game in every league every month that will impact what will be a historic Selection Day. Based on the changes to the format, here's a winter look at the 12 most important games that will impact the 12-team playoff this fall:
1. Georgia at Texas, Oct. 19
Last meeting: Texas 28, Georgia 21 (Jan. 1, 2019)
Why it will matter to the committee: The committee reinforced its belief that past accomplishments don't affect current ranking when it excluded back-to-back national champion Georgia from the final top four in 2023. The Bulldogs had one loss in 28 games -- by three points to Alabama in the SEC title game -- but dropped from No. 1 to No. 6 on Selection Day because they didn't win their conference title in a season packed with contenders who did. That's why this trip to Texas will resonate through Selection Day. It would be viewed as a quality road win in the eyes of the committee, and it will influence who might play in the SEC title game. Georgia has advanced to the SEC title game in recent years in part because the SEC East hasn't been the most challenging side of the league. With divisions scrapped, the game against Texas is the start of the evidence showing how much more difficult Georgia's climb will be in the new SEC.
2. Georgia at Alabama, Sept. 28
Last meeting: Alabama 27, Georgia 24 (Dec. 2, 2023)
Why it will matter to the committee: In addition to the importance in the conference race -- and what could be another quality road win against a ranked opponent for Georgia (see No. 1) -- it will also reveal where Bama coach Kalen DeBoer is with the program in his first season after taking over for retired legend Nick Saban. September will be a very difficult month for Georgia. The Dawgs play two true road games -- at Kentucky and Bama -- and play a season-opening neutral-site game against Clemson. This matchup could foreshadow the SEC championship game, where the two teams have met three times since 2018. If so, the loser of this game will have a chance to impress the selection committee by avenging its regular-season loss. That would also allow for the loser of the SEC title game to claim a regular-season win against the eventual conference champion, helping both teams to earn playoff bids, which also happened in 2021.
3. Ohio State at Oregon, Oct. 12
Last meeting: Oregon 35, Ohio State 28 (Sept. 11, 2021)
Why it will matter to the committee: Ohio State and Michigan aren't the only Big Ten teams capable of winning the league. The Ducks are talented enough to earn a historic title this season, a path that could start with a home win against the Buckeyes. This game is critical to both teams' playoff hopes -- as an at-large contender or as a conference champion. Ohio State has experienced both sides of the selection committee's decision-making process, earning a spot in the CFP without winning the Big Ten and being excluded from it. Last year, the Buckeyes beat Notre Dame and Penn State -- just as they did in 2022 -- but it wasn't enough for a top-four finish without winning the Big Ten. The new system allows for more margin for error, so if Ohio State were to lose a critical conference game, it could still earn an at-large bid. Adding Oregon to the Big Ten gives Ohio State another chance to impress the selection committee with a road win against a ranked opponent. It will need it, considering the nonconference lineup features three straight home games against Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall.
4. Texas at Michigan, Sept. 7
Last meeting: Texas 38, Michigan 37 (Jan. 1, 2005)
Why it will matter to the committee: Remember No. 1 on this list? If Texas loses at home to Georgia, beating the defending national champs on the road will take on even more importance for the Longhorns' playoff hopes. You can expect to see a two-loss team in the 12-team field -- if not this year, then eventually -- because there's more margin for error. It becomes risky, though, and the committee will continue to scrutinize nonconference wins to separate teams competing for those at-large spots. If Texas doesn't win the SEC in its first season in the league, it's going to have a lot of competition still from the rest of the conference (Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU, Oklahoma, etc.,) for the other spots. A win at Michigan could go a long way in helping separate Texas from other contenders with weaker nonconference résumés. Texas and Michigan could win their respective conferences, which means the winner of this game might ultimately boast to the committee a nonconference win against a Power 5 champion -- much like Texas was able to do in 2023 after beating SEC champion Alabama.
5. Florida State at Notre Dame, Nov. 9
Last meeting: Notre Dame 41, Florida State 38 (Sept. 5, 2021)
Why it will matter to the committee: As an independent, Notre Dame can never earn an automatic bid to the 12-team playoff as a conference champion or receive a first-round bye as one of the top four seeds (also reserved for conference champs). For the Irish, strength of schedule remains critical, though there will be less pressure to go undefeated. If Notre Dame can beat the eventual ACC champion, that would certainly increase its chances of earning an at-large bid on Selection Day -- and FSU should again be the league's front-runner. If the Seminoles don't win the ACC, beating Notre Dame on the road is the kind of nonconference win that could help FSU earn an at-large bid. These games can also be critical to seeding and earning a first-round bye. If Florida State finishes as an undefeated or one-loss ACC champion -- with a road win against a ranked Notre Dame team -- it could boost its seeding.
6. Michigan at Ohio State, Nov. 30
Last meeting: Michigan 30, Ohio State 24 (Nov. 25, 2023)
Why it will matter to the committee: As impactful as this game has been, it could lose a bit of its meaning in the selection committee meeting room because conference expansion has created more marquee matchups to help define the Big Ten's best teams. What was once a November heavyweight matchup between Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan in the Big Ten East has changed to a broader competition without divisions. The Game will still influence how the committee votes on Selection Day, though -- and of course the stakes will be high for Ohio State coach Ryan Day, who has lost three straight to the rival Wolverines. In addition to the bragging rights, a win will matter more for Ohio State because the Buckeyes have fewer chances to impress the selection committee. Michigan's schedule is loaded. Texas. USC. Washington. Oregon. And the road trip to Columbus. The Wolverines evade Penn State, but we already saw that show without Jim Harbaugh. Ohio State's best opportunities to impress the committee will be against Oregon, Iowa, Penn State and Michigan. If Ohio State loses to Oregon and Michigan and doesn't win the Big Ten, its résumé may not be strong enough in the new CFP to be included as a two-loss team that didn't win its conference.
7. Oklahoma vs. Texas, Oct. 12
Last meeting: Oklahoma 34, Texas 30 (Oct. 7, 2023)
Why it will matter to the committee: Head-to-head results and conference championships are part of the selection committee's protocol -- and we saw it use it last year with Texas and Alabama. It could factor into this game, too, if the records are otherwise comparable (which they weren't last year). The Red River Rivalry is coming to the SEC, and it will impact the newcomers' chances of playing in the SEC title game. The winner gets the edge in the standings -- and bragging rights -- and it will also help for seeding purposes. Remember, the four highest-ranked conference champions earn a first-round bye, and with only four Power 5 conferences remaining following the dissolution of the Pac-12, the SEC winner will escape the first round. The Sooners also face Tulane in their nonconference schedule and have Ole Miss, Alabama and LSU in the second half of the season. A win against Texas would give them some much-needed margin for error, because if they don't win the SEC, they will need to beat some of those teams to earn an at-large bid. The same goes for Texas, which will have already faced Michigan (see No. 4), and plays Georgia the following week.
8. Ole Miss at LSU, Oct. 12
Last meeting: Ole Miss 55, LSU 49 (Sept. 30, 2023)
Why it will matter to the committee: If Ole Miss is going to take the next step under Lane Kiffin and reach the CFP, which it appears poised to do, it has to impress the committee with a statement road win against a ranked opponent, and this appears to be its best opportunity. The Rebels' schedule is backloaded, starting with this trip to Baton Rouge. They should be undefeated heading into that game -- and might need to be considering it starts a gauntlet that includes Oklahoma, at Arkansas, Georgia and a trip to Florida before ending the regular season at home against Mississippi State. Ole Miss could have a difficult time impressing the committee if it goes 0-2 against LSU and Georgia. The Rebels' nonconference schedule includes Furman, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest and Georgia Southern. On the flip side, LSU opens the season against USC and also faces UCLA, Alabama and Oklahoma this fall. Strength of schedule won't be an issue for LSU, but it will be extremely difficult to win the SEC. The game against the Rebels will be LSU's first real conference test.
9. Michigan at Washington, Oct. 5
Last meeting: Michigan 34, Washington 13 (Jan. 8, 2024)
Why it will matter to the committee: The national championship game that happened earlier this month won't matter to the selection committee -- just ask Georgia, which was excluded from the 2023 top four after one loss and back-to-back national titles. This will matter to the committee because of its implications in the Big Ten championship game, the head-to-head result and seeding for any contenders who don't win their league. These teams will also look starkly different than what fans remember from the national championship (which is why it doesn't matter to the committee). Former Arizona coach Jedd Fisch has been hired to lead Washington after DeBoer went to Bama. Star players are gone, including quarterbacks Michael Penix Jr. and Michigan's J.J. McCarthy. The Wolverines have an extremely difficult schedule that also includes Texas, USC, Oregon and Ohio State. Strength of schedule won't be an issue, but winning the Big Ten again might, so Michigan has to find a quality road win -- either at Washington or at Ohio State. In theory, Washington should be undefeated heading into this game, as it's unlikely to face any ranked opponents through the first five games. Washington needs this more than Michigan to impress the selection committee, because if the Huskies don't win the Big Ten in their first season in the league -- and they don't beat Michigan at home -- they will need to beat Iowa, USC, Penn State and Oregon just to have a chance at an at-large bid.
10. Arizona at Utah, TBA
Last meeting: Arizona 42, Utah 18 (Nov. 18, 2023)
Why it will matter to the committee: Both teams will have a difficult time earning an at-large bid because the selection committee will call their schedule strength into question. Winning the Big 12 will be critical to their playoff hopes. Without Texas and Oklahoma in the way, Arizona and Utah have an opportunity to immediately assert themselves as leaders in their new league. The question is if Arizona can continue its upward trend without Fisch, who was hired at Washington. The answer could come quickly, as Arizona is at K-State on Sept. 14. If Arizona loses at Utah, K-State might be its only regular-season win against a ranked opponent. That would be extremely damaging to Arizona's playoff hopes -- even as an at-large -- if it doesn't win the Big 12. The same applies to Utah, which needs the committee to rank Big 12 opponents to boost its résumé.
11. Boise State at Oregon, Sept. 7
Last meeting: Boise State 38, Oregon 28 (Dec. 16, 2017)
Why it will matter to the committee: The importance of the 12-team format to the Group of 5 teams can't be understated. No longer is there tremendous pressure to schedule ranked Power 5 teams, beat them, finish undefeated with a conference title -- and then pray everyone else loses. Now, there's a guaranteed playoff spot for the top Group of 5 champion, and Boise State has a chance to win the MWC with USC transfer quarterback Malachi Nelson, the No. 1 prospect in the 2023 class. The Broncos' nonconference schedule is tailor-made to impress the committee, with opportunities against Oregon, Oregon State and Washington State. That's thanks in part to the scheduling agreement between the Pac-12's two remaining teams and the Mountain West Conference. While Oregon State and Washington State can't compete for the MWC title, they can certainly provide a résumé boost to those who can. If Boise State somehow pulls off the upset at Oregon, the Broncos will grab the committee's attention before they even meet for the first time.
12. LSU vs. USC, Sept. 1 (Las Vegas)
Last meeting: LSU 23, USC 3 (1984)
Why it will matter to the committee: If these teams don't win their respective conferences and earn an automatic bid, this is the kind of nonconference win that can impress the committee enough to earn an at-large spot. USC has a difficult schedule in its first season in the Big Ten, with road trips to Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland, Washington and UCLA. Plus, it maintained its regular-season rivalry game against Notre Dame. Even if USC doesn't win the Big Ten, its schedule is strong enough to wow the committee for an at-large bid -- if it can win. LSU also has a difficult schedule, but its travel isn't quite as grueling. If the Tigers don't beat USC, the pressure will be on to earn a statement win in the SEC, ideally against Ole Miss, Alabama or Oklahoma.