College football's Week 3 SP+ rankings takeaways

Bill ConnellySep 17, 2023, 11:00 AM ET
Close
Follow on X

We're three weeks into the 2023 season, and we've already seen three changes atop the SP+ rankings.

Two-time defending champion Georgia had just reassumed the No. 1 ranking last week but laid a first-half egg against South Carolina and prevailed only 24-14. Its rating fell, as did that of Alabama after an offensive no-show against USF. The result? Ohio State, with its drastically improving defense and an offense that might be finding traction after a 63-10 win over Western Kentucky, rises to No. 1.

The Buckeyes will play another rising team this coming Saturday: Following another comfortable showing, Notre Dame has jumped to No. 4 overall, just ahead of No. 5 USC, stumbling Alabama and a couple of teams -- Oklahoma and Washington -- that have looked spectacular (against mostly overwhelmed competition) in nonconference play. There's quite a bit of movement at the top of the sport at the moment.

What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

Here are the full rankings:

Post-Week 3 SP+ Rankings

TEAM	RATING	OFFENSE	DEFENSE	SPEC. TEAMS
1. Ohio St. (3-0)	30.3	43.1 (4)	12.8 (5)	0.1 (61)
2. Georgia (3-0)	28.9	39.2 (12)	10.3 (3)	0.1 (60)
3. Michigan (3-0)	28.2	37.8 (16)	9.9 (2)	0.3 (5)
4. Notre Dame (4-0)	26.4	40.4 (6)	13.8 (7)	-0.2 (97)
5. USC (3-0)	25.3	47.0 (1)	22.1 (47)	0.3 (4)
6. Alabama (2-1)	25.0	39.5 (9)	14.7 (12)	0.2 (24)
7. Oklahoma (3-0)	24.9	42.8 (5)	18.3 (22)	0.3 (17)
8. Washington (3-0)	24.0	43.1 (3)	19.1 (27)	0.0 (77)
9. Penn St. (3-0)	23.9	36.4 (21)	12.2 (4)	-0.2 (102)
10. Texas (3-0)	23.8	38.1 (15)	14.6 (9)	0.2 (22)
11. Oregon (3-0)	23.1	43.8 (2)	20.8 (40)	0.1 (58)
12. Clemson (2-1)	21.2	36.5 (19)	15.1 (13)	-0.2 (103)
13. Florida St. (3-0)	21.1	39.3 (10)	18.5 (23)	0.3 (13)
14. Ole Miss (3-0)	20.9	39.7 (7)	18.9 (25)	0.1 (46)
15. LSU (2-1)	20.5	39.2 (11)	18.8 (24)	0.0 (72)
16. Texas A&M (2-1)	19.9	33.9 (27)	14.3 (8)	0.3 (18)
17. Utah (3-0)	19.1	35.2 (23)	16.3 (16)	0.2 (23)
18. Tennessee (2-1)	18.8	39.6 (8)	20.9 (42)	0.2 (36)
19. UCLA (3-0)	17.9	38.1 (14)	20.4 (35)	0.2 (44)
20. Oregon St. (3-0)	16.9	34.8 (24)	18.2 (20)	0.3 (12)
21. Kansas St. (2-1)	16.9	36.5 (20)	19.6 (29)	0.1 (62)
22. Miami (3-0)	16.2	33.6 (29)	17.7 (18)	0.3 (20)
23. Auburn (3-0)	15.5	33.2 (33)	17.6 (17)	0.0 (80)
24. Kentucky (3-0)	15.3	28.5 (57)	13.5 (6)	0.4 (3)
25. Wisconsin (2-1)	15.2	30.8 (44)	16.0 (15)	0.3 (7)
26. N. Carolina (3-0)	15.2	38.1 (13)	23.1 (53)	0.2 (35)
27. TCU (2-1)	14.5	37.1 (17)	22.7 (49)	0.2 (43)
28. Iowa (3-0)	13.8	22.8 (81)	9.2 (1)	0.2 (30)
29. UCF (3-0)	13.7	32.7 (34)	19.3 (28)	0.2 (25)
30. Florida (2-1)	13.2	33.4 (32)	20.0 (32)	-0.2 (104)
31. Maryland (3-0)	12.6	31.5 (39)	19.0 (26)	0.2 (41)
32. Duke (3-0)	12.4	32.6 (35)	20.2 (34)	0.0 (71)
33. Arkansas (2-1)	12.0	35.4 (22)	23.4 (54)	0.0 (78)
34. Louisville (3-0)	11.3	30.8 (45)	19.7 (30)	0.2 (34)
35. Syracuse (3-0)	11.2	30.9 (42)	19.8 (31)	0.0 (65)
36. Texas Tech (1-2)	10.7	36.9 (18)	26.2 (73)	0.0 (64)
37. Missouri (3-0)	10.4	28.6 (56)	17.9 (19)	-0.2 (107)
38. Wash. St. (3-0)	10.2	31.4 (40)	21.4 (45)	0.2 (28)
39. Miss. St. (2-1)	9.6	32.3 (36)	22.9 (52)	0.2 (33)
40. S. Carolina (1-2)	8.8	33.6 (30)	24.6 (62)	-0.2 (101)
41. Memphis (3-0)	8.7	33.7 (28)	25.1 (64)	0.0 (70)
42. Minnesota (2-1)	8.4	22.9 (79)	14.6 (10)	0.0 (67)
43. Tulane (2-1)	7.9	31.5 (38)	23.5 (55)	0.0 (76)
44. Pittsburgh (1-2)	7.9	28.6 (55)	20.6 (37)	-0.1 (88)
45. Wake Forest (3-0)	7.7	32.2 (37)	24.5 (61)	0.0 (79)
46. NC St. (2-1)	7.3	27.3 (63)	20.0 (33)	0.1 (55)
47. BYU (3-0)	6.7	30.7 (46)	24.0 (58)	0.0 (73)
48. SMU (2-1)	6.6	33.6 (31)	26.8 (75)	-0.2 (91)
49. Baylor (1-2)	6.0	30.9 (43)	24.7 (63)	-0.1 (89)
50. Cincinnati (2-1)	5.5	26.1 (69)	20.4 (36)	-0.2 (95)
51. Oklahoma St. (2-1)	5.5	29.3 (49)	24.1 (59)	0.2 (39)
52. Illinois (1-2)	5.2	23.7 (77)	18.2 (21)	-0.2 (98)
53. California (2-1)	5.0	26.4 (66)	21.0 (43)	-0.4 (132)
54. Michigan St. (2-1)	4.7	25.1 (73)	20.8 (39)	0.3 (10)
55. Kansas (3-0)	4.3	34.1 (26)	30.2 (93)	0.4 (1)
56. Iowa St. (1-2)	4.2	19.0 (99)	14.7 (11)	-0.1 (86)
57. Boise St. (1-2)	3.9	27.3 (61)	23.7 (57)	0.2 (21)
58. Arizona (2-1)	3.6	34.2 (25)	30.6 (94)	0.0 (81)
59. Air Force (3-0)	3.4	18.4 (104)	15.4 (14)	0.4 (2)
60. W. Virginia (2-1)	3.4	29.1 (51)	26.0 (70)	0.3 (8)
61. Fresno St. (3-0)	2.8	25.9 (70)	22.9 (51)	-0.2 (106)
62. S. Alabama (2-1)	2.4	25.7 (71)	23.6 (56)	0.3 (16)
63. Coastal Caro. (2-1)	2.4	29.0 (52)	26.8 (76)	0.2 (32)
64. Rutgers (3-0)	2.1	23.0 (78)	21.1 (44)	0.2 (27)
65. Nebraska (1-2)	1.5	22.6 (83)	20.9 (41)	-0.3 (113)
66. UTSA (1-2)	1.3	28.4 (58)	26.9 (77)	-0.2 (99)
67. Purdue (1-2)	0.9	27.3 (62)	26.1 (71)	-0.3 (108)
68. JMU (3-0)	0.6	26.1 (68)	25.8 (66)	0.2 (26)
69. Toledo (2-1)	0.4	26.2 (67)	25.9 (68)	0.1 (63)
70. Liberty (3-0)	-0.3	28.3 (59)	28.6 (84)	0.0 (68)
71. Houston (1-2)	-0.6	31.3 (41)	32.0 (104)	0.1 (57)
72. Marshall (2-0)	-0.8	20.1 (93)	20.7 (38)	-0.2 (94)
73. Troy (1-2)	-0.9	21.6 (88)	22.3 (48)	-0.2 (93)
74. Louisiana (2-1)	-2.3	26.7 (65)	29.2 (89)	0.2 (29)
75. App. St. (2-1)	-2.6	29.9 (47)	32.6 (109)	0.1 (53)
76. Colorado (3-0)	-2.9	29.1 (50)	31.8 (102)	-0.1 (90)
77. Vanderbilt (2-2)	-3.2	28.9 (53)	32.2 (107)	0.1 (50)
78. Va. Tech (1-2)	-3.9	20.4 (92)	24.3 (60)	0.1 (51)
79. Georgia St. (3-0)	-4.4	28.8 (54)	33.3 (113)	0.1 (59)
80. Ga. Tech (1-2)	-4.4	24.5 (74)	28.8 (85)	-0.2 (100)
81. Indiana (1-2)	-4.8	22.7 (82)	27.7 (78)	0.2 (38)
82. Arizona St. (1-2)	-6.3	22.8 (80)	29.1 (87)	0.0 (66)
83. Boston Coll. (1-2)	-6.3	21.7 (87)	28.2 (81)	0.1 (47)
84. San Diego St. (2-2)	-6.8	19.0 (98)	25.8 (67)	0.0 (69)
85. Army (2-1)	-6.9	21.4 (90)	28.1 (80)	-0.1 (85)
86. Ohio (3-1)	-7.2	18.7 (102)	25.5 (65)	-0.4 (129)
87. Northwestern (1-2)	-7.6	15.1 (128)	22.8 (50)	0.1 (48)
88. San Jose St. (1-3)	-8.1	22.4 (85)	30.1 (92)	-0.3 (118)
89. Wyoming (2-1)	-8.2	17.5 (109)	25.9 (69)	0.2 (37)
90. WKU (2-1)	-8.4	27.0 (64)	35.5 (122)	0.1 (49)
91. Ga. Southern (2-1)	-8.7	28.1 (60)	36.7 (130)	-0.1 (87)
92. FAU (1-2)	-8.8	20.5 (91)	29.0 (86)	-0.3 (111)
93. Miami-OH (2-1)	-9.7	17.9 (105)	27.9 (79)	0.3 (6)
94. Virginia (0-3)	-10.4	16.2 (118)	26.2 (72)	-0.4 (128)
95. Texas St. (2-1)	-10.9	15.3 (126)	26.5 (74)	0.3 (15)
96. La. Tech (2-2)	-11.0	25.6 (72)	36.6 (128)	-0.1 (84)
97. NMSU (2-2)	-11.2	24.3 (75)	35.6 (123)	0.1 (45)
98. Stanford (1-2)	-11.3	17.8 (107)	29.2 (88)	0.1 (54)
99. UNLV (2-1)	-11.3	21.5 (89)	32.9 (110)	0.1 (56)
100. N. Texas (1-2)	-11.6	29.9 (48)	41.7 (133)	0.3 (19)
101. Utah St. (1-2)	-11.9	19.9 (94)	32.2 (106)	0.3 (14)
102. Navy (1-2)	-12.2	16.5 (116)	28.5 (82)	-0.3 (109)
103. Temple (2-1)	-12.5	17.4 (110)	29.5 (91)	-0.4 (127)
104. UAB (1-2)	-12.7	19.0 (100)	31.3 (99)	-0.4 (131)
105. Rice (2-1)	-13.0	22.6 (84)	35.8 (125)	0.2 (31)
106. FIU (3-1)	-13.3	19.1 (97)	32.1 (105)	-0.3 (116)
107. Tulsa (1-2)	-13.7	24.2 (76)	38.0 (132)	0.2 (42)
108. ECU (0-3)	-13.8	17.1 (112)	30.6 (95)	-0.3 (110)
109. EMU (2-1)	-13.9	16.8 (114)	31.0 (96)	0.3 (9)
110. MTSU (1-2)	-13.9	17.7 (108)	31.2 (97)	-0.4 (123)
111. JSU (2-1)	-14.1	19.4 (96)	33.7 (114)	0.2 (40)
112. So. Miss (1-2)	-14.4	17.3 (111)	31.7 (101)	-0.1 (82)
113. SHSU (0-2)	-14.8	6.8 (132)	21.7 (46)	0.1 (52)
114. ODU (1-2)	-14.8	15.0 (129)	29.5 (90)	-0.4 (124)
115. USF (1-2)	-15.2	19.9 (95)	35.5 (121)	0.3 (11)
116. Buffalo (0-3)	-15.7	22.2 (86)	37.7 (131)	-0.2 (105)
117. UTEP (1-3)	-15.7	15.8 (122)	31.2 (98)	-0.3 (115)
118. Ball St. (1-2)	-15.8	16.5 (115)	31.9 (103)	-0.4 (133)
119. NIU (1-2)	-17.0	18.8 (101)	35.3 (120)	-0.4 (130)
120. CMU (1-2)	-17.4	15.2 (127)	32.3 (108)	-0.3 (112)
121. BGSU (1-2)	-17.5	18.7 (103)	35.8 (126)	-0.4 (121)
122. Colorado St. (0-2)	-17.7	15.4 (125)	33.1 (111)	0.0 (75)
123. Hawaii (1-3)	-18.2	17.9 (106)	36.0 (127)	-0.1 (83)
124. ULM (2-1)	-18.3	15.9 (121)	33.8 (115)	-0.4 (125)
125. Arkansas St. (1-2)	-18.4	16.3 (117)	34.3 (117)	-0.4 (122)
126. WMU (1-2)	-19.2	15.5 (123)	34.3 (116)	-0.3 (114)
127. Nevada (0-3)	-19.2	15.5 (124)	34.5 (118)	-0.2 (96)
128. New Mexico (1-2)	-19.3	14.2 (130)	33.2 (112)	-0.4 (126)
129. Charlotte (1-2)	-19.4	16.1 (119)	35.2 (119)	-0.2 (92)
130. Akron (1-2)	-20.0	16.0 (120)	35.7 (124)	-0.4 (120)
131. UMass (1-3)	-20.1	16.9 (113)	36.6 (129)	-0.3 (117)
132. UConn (0-3)	-20.3	11.6 (131)	31.5 (100)	-0.3 (119)
133. Kent St. (1-2)	-22.0	6.6 (133)	28.6 (83)	0.0 (74)

Colorado watch

I've been tracking Colorado's rise from week to week as SP+ tries to get a grasp on how good the Buffaloes actually are despite the fact that they were completely unprojectable in the offseason. They were projected to improve more than any other FBS team, but because they were so genuinely atrocious last season, they still started out ranked in the 80s.

They rose after each of the first two weeks ... but not after the third. The Buffaloes struggled with both rivalry energy and line play against Colorado State (122nd in SP+) and needed a late, 98-yard drive to force overtime and eventually win. Consequently, they actually fell 2.2 points in SP+ and remained ranked 76th. Obviously the next two weeks will tell us most of what we need to know about Deion Sanders' team -- they play at Oregon (11th in SP+), then host USC (fifth) -- but beyond their resilience (especially that of Shedeur Sanders), anything we learned about them this week wasn't particularly good.

This week's movers

Let's take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We're looking at ratings, not rankings.)

MOVING UP

Here are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:

New Mexico State: up 7.3 adjusted points per game (from 126th to 97th)
Arkansas State: up 5.6 points (132nd to 125th)
FIU: up 4.7 points (124th to 106th)
South Alabama: up 4.4 points (74th to 62nd)
Louisiana: up 4.4 points (88th to 74th)
NC State: up 4.3 points (57th to 46th)
Boise State: up 4.2 points (66th to 57th)
Kent State: up 4.2 points (still 133rd)
Miami (Ohio): up 4.1 points (106th to 93rd)
Coastal Carolina: up 3.9 points (71st to 63rd)

I'm happy for all of those teams -- especially NMSU, which took a huge rivalry win over New Mexico after a week in which head coach Jerry Kill missed practices with a medical issue -- but there aren't any top-level teams here. So let's do this: Within last week's SP+ top 25, here are the five teams that improved the most.

Clemson: up 3.7 points (19th to 12th)
Texas A&M: up 3.4 points (20th to 16th)
Notre Dame: up 3.3 points (11th to fourth)
UCLA: up 2.3 points (22nd to 19th)
LSU: up 1.9 points (16th to 15th)

Each of the top four teams here devoured cupcakes of varying quality, but dominating teams like a top-10 (or so) team would dominate them still means something. And honestly, I'm surprised LSU didn't move up more after the Tigers' resounding win over Mississippi State; MSU fell more than LSU rose.

MOVING DOWN

Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:

Michigan State: down 6.4 points (37th to 54th)
Western Kentucky: down 6.2 points (75th to 90th)
Mississippi State: down 5.2 points (23rd to 39th)
Cincinnati: down 4.6 points (40th to 50th)
FAU: down 4.3 points (82nd to 92nd)
Georgia Southern: down 4.2 points (83rd to 91st)
Oklahoma State: down 4.0 points (43rd to 51st)
Northern Illinois: down 3.9 points (101st to 119th)
UAB: down 3.9 points (92nd to 104th)
Kansas State: down 3.9 points (15th to 21st)
Tennessee: down 4.1 points (sixth to 12th)

It probably wasn't much of a surprise to see Michigan State getting walloped by Washington, both because the Huskies are excellent and the Spartans had one atrocious week. Honestly, the most surprising thing here is that Oklahoma State didn't fall by even more than MSU after an appalling 33-7 loss to South Alabama.

In addition to Mississippi State and Kansas State, here are three more teams from last week's SP+ top 25 that dropped quite a bit:

Florida State: down 3.4 points (eighth to 13th)
Penn State: down 3.2 points (fourth to ninth)
Tennessee: down 3.0 points (12th to 18th)

Georgia also fell by 1.6 points. It was a weird week for quite a few top teams. Yes, it's a little odd to see Penn State dropping after a comfortable win at Illinois, but the Nittany Lions averaged just 5.0 yards per play (Toledo averaged 5.3 against the Fighting Illini in Week 1, and Kansas averaged 7.4 in Week 2), and they needed a plus-5 turnover margin to win as comfortably as they did. Not an incredibly sustainable recipe there.

Conference rankings

Here are the FBS' 10 conferences, ranked by average SP+:

1. SEC: 15.4 average SP+ (34.6 offense, 19.3 defense)
2. Pac-12: 10.4 average SP+ (33.6 offense, 23.3 defense)
3. Big 12: 10.0 average SP+ (32.5 offense, 22.6 defense)
4. Big Ten: 9.6 average SP+ (27.5 offense, 18.0 defense)
5. ACC: 7.6 average SP+ (29.5 offense, 21.9 defense)
6. Sun Belt: -6.5 average SP+ (22.6 offense, 29.1 defense)
7. AAC: -7.7 average SP+ (23.6 offense, 31.2 defense)
8. MWC: -9.2 average SP+ (19.6 offense, 28.8 defense)
9. Conference USA: -11.4 average SP+ (20.4 offense, 31.8 defense)
10. MAC: -14.6 average SP+ (17.4 offense, 31.8 defense)

The SEC managed a zero-sum week, with nonconference rises by Texas A&M, Missouri and Kentucky offsetting Arkansas' loss and Alabama's offensive collapse. (The Tide dropped 2.6 points in offensive SP+.) But the real story here is the new second-place conference. The Pac-12 continues to jump up the standings, with six of 12 teams now between fifth and 20th; Colorado's rise was obviously stunted, but the conference's rise was not. What a year it's shaping up to be out West.