Alabama coach Nick Saban took a very measured approach to the Tide's loss to Texas on Saturday evening, conceding his team "didn't do very well" in its first real test, but compared it to a "midterm, not the final."
"Everybody's basically got two choices," Saban said after the game. "You can throw in the towel and quit and be mediocre, or you can fight and grind and do the hard things that you need to be successful. We certainly don't want to waste this failing."
Alabama is not out of the College Football Playoff because it lost to Texas, but it will be if doesn't get better. The Tide's mistakes Saturday during a 34-24 loss were similar to those that cost Alabama a spot in the top four last fall and ultimately led to their two regular-season losses. The CFP selection committee snubbed the Tide last year not only because of what other contenders achieved, but also because Alabama was hindered by uncharacteristic mistakes that are starting to seem routine.
Alabama was plagued by penalties last year. Against Texas, Alabama had 10 penalties for 90 yards. Last year, the Tide had average play up front, and Saturday the offensive line allowed five sacks while the defense failed to fluster Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers. Saban's defense hasn't finished in the top five nationally since 2017, and Saturday the Tide allowed Texas 21 fourth-quarter points, tied for the most Alabama has allowed in the last quarter under Saban.
No team in the country has had more playoff appearances than Alabama (seven), but the selection committee doesn't put the Tide in its top four because of its jerseys or its head coach. It will, however, leave Alabama out of the top four if it doesn't -- gasp -- pass the eye test, and that didn't happen against the Longhorns.
If Alabama wasn't top-four material last year with future NFL No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young at quarterback, the Tide has a lot of work to do to prove to the committee they're playoff material without him. Young's replacement, Jalen Milroe, completed 14 of 27 passes for 255 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, prompting many to wonder if he will remain the starter.
A two-loss team has never made the playoff, and while that doesn't mean it can't happen, Alabama needs to win the SEC West and play in the championship game. If the Tide runs the table and loses a close game to Georgia in the SEC championship game, it could still get some consideration as a two-loss team, but that would be highly dependent on what happens in the other Power 5 conference races. After just two weeks, that's a crowded field that also includes Florida State, Michigan, Ohio State and USC.
And now Texas.
The Longhorns just earned a bunch of bonus points in the selection committee meeting room. Not only does the win give Texas an edge over other contenders with a weaker nonconference schedule, it also gives the Longhorns a little wiggle room in their own Big 12 race. If Texas were to stumble once during the regular season en route to the Big 12 title -- or lose its only game of the season in the Big 12 championship -- the win at Alabama would continue to help its case for a top-four finish. It would help Texas even more if Alabama went on to win the SEC.
Alabama's best-case scenario to return to the CFP is to win the SEC. Any team that doesn't win its conference faces a much higher burden of proof in the committee meeting room and has to be deemed "unequivocally" one of the four best teams in the country.
That would be hard for the committee to justify if Alabama continues to play the way it did against Texas.
SEC is struggling
The selection committee has said repeatedly it doesn't rank conferences, it ranks teams, but it's clear each week how strong a conference is perceived to be in that room by how many CFP Top 25 teams it produces.
The SEC, which has had the most CFP appearances of any conference with 11, is always well-represented, but it's off to a rough start in its nonconference games. Following Miami's win against Texas A&M on Saturday, the ACC is now 4-1 against the SEC. That also includes Florida State's blockbuster win against LSU, and North Carolina's win over South Carolina. Florida also lost its season-opener to last season's Pac-12 champion, Utah.
Strength of schedule is so important to the selection committee. When the group evaluates a contender like Alabama at the end of the season, it will look to see how many teams the Tide beat that are ranked in their top 25. The SEC West needs to rebound so that its winner -- whomever it might be -- can claim multiple wins against ranked opponents.
It's hard to believe this will be any real cause for concern once the heart of the conference season begins -- there are always multiple SEC teams ranked -- but these nonconference losses make it more critical for those SEC teams to earn wins against ranked teams in their own league. Alabama isn't going to wow the committee by beating South Florida or Chattanooga.
The Pac-12 continues to cruise
Shedeur Sanders takes it himself for the score and hits the Deion Shuffle as Colorado pads its lead to 36-7.
Colorado beat Nebraska. Utah beat Baylor on the road. Oregon beat Texas Tech. Washington State beat Wisconsin, prompting an emotional coach Jake Dickert to tell ESPN's Quint Kessenich, "We belong in the Power 5."
Less than a month after 10 of its 12 teams announced it would depart for other conferences next season, the Pac-12 started 18-0, with Arizona finally losing in overtime to Mississippi State moments before Washington State sealed its victory over Wisconsin. The league is 21-4 overall after a wild Saturday night, but its 18-0 start is the best by any conference since the FBS/FCS split in 1978.
As the Pac-12 plays its final season with its current membership, it does so with arguably the most depth of any Power 5 conference -- and the best story in the sport. Colorado continued to capture the nation's attention with its 36-14 win over the Huskers and should beat Colorado State in Week 3. That means the Buffs should be undefeated heading to Oregon on Sept. 23 -- a game that is now heavy with conference and possibly playoff implications.
Until the top teams start playing each other, it's impossible to tell if there is a great team running alongside a pack of good ones. USC, Washington and Oregon all entered this season capable of contending for the CFP. Colorado sent a message early to be taken seriously, but how seriously?
What separates USC from the pack (aside from a Heisman Trophy winner in Caleb Williams) is its Oct. 14 opportunity at Notre Dame. None of the other aforementioned teams have a nonconference game that could create as much value in the committee meeting room -- that's assuming, of course, that the Irish continue to have success as a Top 25 team. Speaking of the Irish ...
Notre Dame finally played somebody
Notre Dame's 2-0 start was significant because the Irish started 0-2 last year under Marcus Freeman, but the jury was still out because those lopsided wins came against unheralded opponents Navy and Tennessee State.
Beating NC State on the road 45-24, even though the Pack was unranked, was more revealing. It was the first time they really faced adversity -- and a lengthy weather delay -- this season. Before transferring to Notre Dame, quarterback Sam Hartman was 0-2 against NC State and threw three picks in each game.
The Irish face Central Michigan next before hosting Ohio State on Sept. 23 in a game that will determine which team to take more seriously in the CFP race.