<
>

Week 9 bowl projections: Playoff, New Year's Six matchups

Marvin Harrison Jr. and Ohio State looked impressive again with a win over Penn State. Matthew OHaren/USA TODAY Sports

The teams at the top of the college football rankings took care of business in Week 9, with Ohio State, Tennessee, Georgia and Michigan all scoring impressive wins.

What does it all mean for the bowl picture? ESPN college football reporters Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach break it all down with their latest projections for all the games, including their analysis of the CFP matchups, which teams helped and hurt their causes the most and which matchup they'd most like to see.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Jan. 9, time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Ohio State
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Ohio State

CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Clemson

CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ohio State vs. Clemson
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Tennessee

CFP breakdown

Bonagura: The status quo remains. It's important to remember here that when doing bowl projections, we're forecasting how things will look at the end of the season, not necessarily what the top four looks like at this moment. For example, I think Tennessee might be the second-best team in college football right now, but the likelihood of two teams from the same conference division reaching the playoff -- in this case, Tennessee and Georgia -- is slim. The Vols could wind up at No. 1 or No. 2 when the official playoff rankings are released Tuesday, but that won't change anything as far as this exercise is concerned. Projected conference champions Georgia (over Florida), Ohio State (over Penn State) and TCU (over West Virginia) all won and remain undefeated, while Clemson was on a bye.

Schlabach: My top four teams remained the same. I think Tennessee, with victories over LSU (road), Alabama (home) and Kentucky (home), has the best résumé among my top four teams. I think defending national champion Georgia has the best victory to date (a 49-3 victory against Oregon in Atlanta). The good news: The Bulldogs and Volunteers will settle it on the field Saturday. It will be the first top-five matchup at Sanford Stadium since the No. 4 Bulldogs lost 13-7 to Bo Jackson and No. 3 Auburn in 1983, ending Georgia's 23-game SEC win streak, according to ESPN Stats & Information. I like the Bulldogs at home, so I'll keep them No. 1. Ohio State, a 44-31 winner at Penn State on Saturday, is my No. 3 team. Clemson, which was off this past weekend, is No. 4. I also considered Michigan, TCU, Oregon and Alabama.

Matchup Schlabach is most excited to see

Tennessee-Ohio State: Both teams are very, very good on offense, but the jury might still be out on how good they are on defense. It would be a wild shootout in the Fiesta Bowl. The Volunteers are No. 1 in the FBS with 49.4 points per game; the Buckeyes are No. 2 with 48.9. OSU quarterback C.J. Stroud is completing 71.3% of his passes with 2,377 yards, 29 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. UT quarterback Hendon Hooker is completing 71.2% of his attempts with 2,338 yards, 21 scores and just 1 pick. Both teams rank pretty well in scoring defense, but Ohio State allowed 21 points to Toledo and Wisconsin and 31 to Penn State, while Tennessee allowed 27 to Pitt, 33 to Florida and 49 to Alabama. Of course, when you're scoring nearly 50 points per contest, defense might not matter.


New Year's Six

Dec. 30

Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Alabama
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Illinois

Dec. 31

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: TCU vs. Alabama

Bonagura's team that helped itself the most

Tennessee: The Vols' 44-6 win against Kentucky, which came into the game ranked No. 19, was the strongest statement of the weekend among contending teams. It was a completely dominant performance that reinforced the idea that Tennessee isn't just off to a hot start and is a legitimate threat to win the national title.


Jan. 2

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UCLA vs. Tulane
Schlabach: USC vs. Tulane

Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Oregon

Matchup Bonagura is most excited to see

Give me Michigan-Oregon in the Rose Bowl. The closer we get to a 12-team playoff, the closer we are to the reality that the Rose Bowl will never be the same. Oregon and Michigan in Pasadena would be a good celebration of college football and the game's traditional Big Ten vs. Pac-12 pairing.


Bowl season

Dec. 16

HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11:30 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: North Texas vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: UTEP vs. Bowling Green

Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
Exploria Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: South Alabama vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: SMU vs. Rice

Dec. 17

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Howard vs. Jackson State
Schlabach: North Carolina Central vs. Jackson State

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: BYU vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. San Diego State

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Washington State vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington State vs. Boise State

LendingTree Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Ball State
Schlabach: Troy vs. BYU

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Washington vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Mississippi State

Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Rice vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Southern Miss vs. UNLV

Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Florida International

Dec. 20

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Air Force vs. Buffalo
Schlabach: San Jose State vs. Toledo

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UAB vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Georgia Southern

Dec. 21

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina

Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Memphis

Dec. 23

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Memphis vs. Army
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Army

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas A&M vs. Houston
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Appalachian State

Dec. 24

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Wyoming
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Air Force

Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Eastern Michigan

Dec. 27

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. South Alabama

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: SMU vs. San Jose State
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Wyoming

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Missouri vs. Troy
Schlabach: UCF vs. UAB

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas vs. Wisconsin
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Wisconsin

Dec. 28

Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisville vs. UCF
Schlabach: Miami vs. Houston

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Baylor vs. Florida
Schlabach: Baylor vs. South Carolina

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox

Bonagura: NC State vs. Utah
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Utah

Schlabach's team that helped itself the most

Notre Dame: The Irish looked to be in trouble after they lost their first two games at Ohio State and at home against Marshall to start coach Marcus Freeman's first full season. But Notre Dame has won five of its past six games, including a 41-24 upset of No. 16 Syracuse on the road Saturday. Brandon Joseph returned an interception 29 yards for a touchdown on the Orange's first play from scrimmage, and tailback Audric Estime ran for 123 yards and two scores. The Irish still face two difficult tests -- home against No. 5 Clemson next week and at No. 10 USC on Nov. 26. Given their start, the Irish's season should finish much better than it started.


TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: South Carolina vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Arkansas vs. Texas

Dec. 29

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Purdue
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Purdue

Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Oklahoma State
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Oklahoma State

Team whose stock took the biggest hit

Bonagura: Oklahoma State was a long shot to reach the playoff, but it was still alive when the weekend started and was definitely in the mix for a New Year's Six bowl berth. Now? It's hard to take the Cowboys seriously after their 48-0 loss to Kansas State.

Schlabach: After giving Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy some love last week, his team laid an absolute egg at Kansas State on Saturday, suffering its first shutout loss since 2009 in a 48-0 rout. The Wildcats did it without star quarterback Adrian Martinez, who missed the game with a knee injury. Backup Will Howard threw for 296 yards and four scores. The Pokes had three turnovers and only 54 rushing yards. Unless Oklahoma State runs the table and wins the Big 12 championship game, it probably cost itself a spot in a New Year's Six bowl game. The Wildcats now have the inside track at a Big 12 title.


Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas vs. USC
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. UCLA

Dec. 30

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Florida State vs. Maryland
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Minnesota

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Duke vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Duke vs. Oregon State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: NC State vs. Florida

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.

Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Fresno State vs. Ball State

Dec. 31

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Kentucky

Jan. 2

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Ole Miss

Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Penn State vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Penn State vs. LSU