Week 6 of the college football season was ... odd. Quarterback injuries made for strange viewing experiences.
Alabama was able to fend off an upset bid from Texas A&M without defending Heisman winner Bryce Young. Kentucky wasn't so lucky, falling to South Carolina without Will Levis. Kansas nearly kept up with TCU thanks to a brilliant performance from backup Jason Bean, in for Jalon Daniels. Oklahoma got its Red River Showdown doors blown off without Dillon Gabriel. Arizona State upset Washington with former walk-on Trenton Bourguet at the helm and Texas Tech threw a serious scare into Oklahoma State with a third-string quarterback. Louisville backup Brock Domann potentially saved coach Scott Satterfield's job with a solid performance in a win over Virginia. Et cetera.
For quite a few important teams, this was a survive-and-advance week, one in which we lost only one unbeaten team -- oh, what could have been, Kansas -- and gave us as much oddity as useful information. But storylines still emerged; they always do. Here are six particularly interesting takeaways from the second Saturday in October.
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Heisman of the week | Favorite games
What on earth has happened to Oklahoma?
It's difficult to underachieve against the spread for a particular period of time because the books adjust. If a team is worse than expected, the bar will keep being lowered until equilibrium is found.
Sometimes, however, a collapse comes so swiftly that it takes a while to find equilibrium. Sometimes you pull a John Mackovic. Or a Turner Gill.
Which brings us to Oklahoma.
Largest underachievement vs. the spread in a three-game span for a once-ranked team, last 30 years:
1. 1997 Texas (-110.5 points)
2. 2011 Texas Tech (-107.5)
3. 1999 UCLA (-101.5)
4. 2005 Colorado (-99.5)
5. 2022 Oklahoma (-98)
Having posted SP+ projections against the lines for about a decade now, I can confidently say that the books are smarter than they've ever been. The lines are extraordinarily hard to beat in volume, even compared to just a few years ago. And they have not been able to keep up with the velocity of Oklahoma's collapse.
Just three weeks ago, Brent Venables' first Sooners team was 3-0 and coming off of a rousing rivalry win at Nebraska. Favored by 10.5 points, the Sooners had won by a 49-14 margin, and they were 13.5-point home favorites against a Kansas State team that had just lost to Tulane.
• Sept. 24: Kansas State (+13.5) 41, Oklahoma 34
• Oct. 1: TCU (+5) 55, Oklahoma 24
• Oct. 8: Texas (-7.5) 49, Oklahoma 0
Expected scoring margin for Oklahoma in these games: plus-11. Actual scoring margin: minus-87.
We can tell how uniquely bad this stretch has been from the company OU is currently keeping. In the past three decades, only four once-ranked teams have underachieved by more over a three-game span. Two of them fired their coaches (1997 Texas, 2005 Colorado), and the other two probably should have. Bob Toledo survived a 4-7 collapse at UCLA in 1999 because he was coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes. But he went just 20-15 over the next three seasons and was fired. Tommy Tuberville and Texas Tech, meanwhile, pulled the same act the following season: The Red Raiders started 6-1, then lost four of five before Tuberville left for Cincinnati.
In all four of these instances, the coaches had been in their jobs for a while, and the sudden collapses were signs of an ending, either soon or on the horizon.
If we focus specifically on teams that collapse in their head coach's first seasons, things get much, much darker.
Largest underachievement vs. the spread in a three-game span for a first-year coach, past 30 years:
1. Turner Gill, 2010 Kansas (-109)
2. Brian Knorr, 2001 Ohio (-101.5)
3. Vic Koenning, 2000 Wyoming (-98.5)
4. Brent Venables, 2022 Oklahoma (-98)
5. Paul Wulff, 2008 Washington State (-94.5)
6. Ron Dickerson, 1993 Temple (-91)
The five names surrounding Venables' are five of the least successful hires college football has seen in that time span. Those coaches went a combined 38-170 -- the equivalent of 2-10 seasons ad infinitum. None won more than four games in a season.
Granted, none of these men were coaching Oklahoma, either. Those five poor individuals were taking on some of the hardest jobs in the country, and while they performed terribly, the floor in Norman -- where the Sooners have finished under .500 just five times since World War II -- is quite a bit higher.
Still, inclusion on these lists should ring serious alarm bells. There are really no examples of a team collapsing like this and recovering in a short amount of time. If OU is to become the first, the three main sources of collapse must rebound immediately.
1. Quarterback play. This one will be the easiest to fix, if only because Dillon Gabriel is expected back soon. The UCF transfer was still in the concussion protocol and wasn't cleared to play against Texas, and wow, have his replacements proven unready.
In 34 pass attempts since Gabriel was injured against TCU, Davis Beville has gained just 55 net yards -- 88 gained from 13-for-28 passing, minus 33 yards from six sacks -- and thrown an interception. Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) is a per-attempt average that accounts for sacks and applies 20-yard bonuses for touchdowns and 45-yard penalties for interceptions; Gabriel is averaging 9.9 ANY/A, Beville 0.3. A decent case could be made that OU's offense was at its best Saturday when tight end Brayden Willis was behind center as a Wildcat QB.
Oklahoma fans have been clamoring for an appearance from either third-stringer General Booty -- a favorite of the college football internet world for very obvious reasons -- or blue-chip freshman Nick Evers, who threw a single incompletion against Texas. The fact that Venables and offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby determined Beville was their best option, however, doesn't suggest a particularly high ceiling for an alternate move.
Again, Gabriel should return soon, potentially against Kansas this coming weekend. He's 23rd in Total QBR, and even if that's not quite the standard Baker Mayfield, et al. set in Norman, it's good.
2. Run defense. Over the past three weeks, OU has allowed 7.2 yards per carry (dead last in FBS at 131st) and a 53% success rate (126th). Worse, it has been beaten by three different types of run games. Kansas State's zone-read game produced 100-yard performances for both quarterback Adrian Martinez (148 yards and four scores) and back Deuce Vaughn (116 yards). TCU offered more spread and speed, and four Horned Frogs backs combined for 242 yards (8.3 per carry) while quarterback Max Duggan ripped off a 67-yard sprint for good measure. Texas offered no run threat whatsoever from the quarterback position, but Longhorns backs, led by Bijan Robinson, still had 279 yards (5.8 per carry).
Mind you, the pass defense hasn't covered itself in glory, either. But opponents have been able to pass only when they want to because the run is always there.
3. Defensive disruption. It vanished overnight. The Sooners recorded 13 sacks among 32 tackles for loss in their first three games; in their past three games: one and 12, respectively. Linemen Reggie Grimes II, Ethan Downs, Jalen Redmond, Isaiah Coe and Jonah Laulu had 16.5 TFLs in the first three games, and have four since. There is no push against the run, and with opponents never behind schedule, pass-rushing opportunities have vanished as well. The Sooners have been average on third-and-long (33% conversion rate, 79th in FBS) but an absolute sieve in shorter distances (77% conversion rate on third-and-6 or less, 125th).
Disruption was the one thing former defensive coordinator Alex Grinch was guaranteed to create, albeit at the cost of allowing lots of big plays. OU is now giving up as many big plays as it ever has, but with no havoc in return. While plenty of first-year coaches leaned heavily on the portal to prop up weak units, Venables brought in six defensive transfers, four from Group of 5 schools, and none have made significant contributions. One, linebacker T.D. Roof, is missing the season with injury, which has contributed to some massive issues in linebacker depth. If it seems like there are no linebackers on the field when opposing running backs are cutting untouched into the second level of the defense, that is more correct than it should be.
History suggests it's a long road back to respectability for the Sooners. (That has to be the first time I've ever typed that sentence.) Worse, there might be even more nefarious forces at work.
The Curse of Scott Frost: Three teams have beaten Nebraska this year - Northwestern, Georgia Southern and Oklahoma. Following those wins, those three teams are a combined 1-11.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) October 9, 2022
Scott Frost's legacy might extend to schools at which he hasn't even coached!
FPI looks like it was right about Texas, by the way
Full disclosure: I have nothing to do with ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). I have never seen under the hood nor have I asked to. It is the baby of ESPN's Stats & Information group, and in terms of game-to-game performance, it is excellent, ranking in the top 10 in average absolute error (the average points by which a projections system misses a game) at Prediction Tracker almost every season. My SP+ ratings, which came with me to ESPN a few years ago, perform similarly well, but they're both good -- that's why I reference both ratings frequently.
That said, I will treat this as a safe space and admit that, just as you likely did, I scoffed heartily when I saw that Steve Sarkisian and Texas were projected seventh in FPI this preseason. (To be fair, I scoffed equally at Tennessee's No. 10 preseason ranking in SP+, but at least the Volunteers went to a bowl last year.) I just could not create a string of logic to make sense of having the Longhorns that high. They did not have a stellar recent history to lean on -- they were 12-10 over the past two seasons, 5-7 in Sark's debut season -- and while their recruiting rankings are good, as Texas' always are, they weren't any better than those of a lot of teams they were projected to leapfrog.
Six weeks in, despite losing starting quarterback Quinn Ewers for most of four games, Texas is now fourth in FPI ... and fifth in SP+. The Horns lost by just one point to top-ranked Alabama, and their 37-34 overtime loss to Texas Tech -- in which they outgained the Red Raiders by 2.3 yards per play but saw Tech recover all three of the game's fumbles while converting a jaw-dropping six of eight fourth-down attempts -- was one of the most statistically unlikely results of the season. In four wins, meanwhile, the Horns have outscored opponents by an average of 45-13 and outgained them by an average of 7.3 yards per play to 4.1.
They have finished in the defensive SP+ top 40 just once in the past seven seasons, but they're currently 16th. They're seventh on offense despite basically getting only nine quarters out of Ewers thus far. They have ... well ... played exactly like the top-10 team FPI said they were all along. Mea culpa.
Mind you, they might still have a close-games problem. They've lost seven of nine one-score games under Sarkisian, which is certainly a lot more Scott Frost-like than preferable and which could flip the vibes back to negative awfully quickly. But so far, Texas has earned a lot more benefit of the doubt than I expected.
Next week: The biggest Tennessee game in years
No. 8 Tennessee 40, No. 25 LSU 13
It indeed made me a little queasy to see how much SP+ liked Tennessee heading into the season, if only because, as with Texas, we'd been here before. The Volunteers haven't finished higher than 22nd in the AP poll since 2007. In SP+, they finished ninth in 2015 and 13th in 2016 under Butch Jones, but went 3-6 in one-score games over those two seasons and 9-4 overall each year, which felt only like a partial breakthrough. Under three different coaches, they'd gone only 27-33 in the five years since.
In Josh Heupel's first season in charge, however, the offense found fifth gear after quarterback Hendon Hooker took over. And while the defense faded miserably down the stretch, it appeared to be deeper and more experienced this time around. Top-20 expectations seemed justifiable, even if the top 10 seemed a bit much to me.
Tennessee is now unbeaten and seventh in SP+, seventh in FPI and sixth in the AP poll. It's unanimous: The Vols are damn good. If you didn't believe it before Saturday -- and their somewhat sloppy wins over both Pitt and Florida left a little room for doubt -- their comprehensive, 27-point destruction of LSU should have made you believe. Against a Tigers defense allowing only 14.8 points per game, Tennessee gained 502 yards (a difficult feat considering how good its field position was for much of the game) and scored on six of its first eight drives. The UT defense, meanwhile, allowed fewer than 5.1 yards per play for the fourth time in five games.
Tennessee's recent history of unmet expectations is not Heupel's fault. All he's done in Knoxville is inherit a 3-7 team, immediately flip it to 7-6 in his first year and start his second season 5-0. It's the Vols' best start since 2016, and all they have to do to reach 6-0 for the first time since 1998 is ... beat Bama. Their last win over the Crimson Tide: 2006, the year before Nick Saban's arrival. This will be their first top 10 vs. top 10 matchup since 2016 against the Tide, and they lost that game 49-10. Things are different under Heupel, but we'll find out just how different this coming Saturday.
Are UCLA and Oregon the two best teams in the Pac-12?
Jayce Rogers turns on the burners and outruns the Tigers' special team for a 100-yard kick-off return to bring the Cougars within 10.
No. 18 UCLA 42, No. 11 Utah 32
No. 12 Oregon 49, Arizona 22
For two straight weeks, UCLA was supposed to have its come-to-Jesus moment. Chip Kelly's Bruins were 2.5-point underdogs to Washington in Week 5 and 3-point dogs to Utah in Week 6, and it seemed pretty fair. Washington was a bit more proven than UCLA, while Utah had grown smoking hot since a season-opening loss to Florida.
UCLA scored 40 points and gained 499 yards on Washington, then put up 42 and 502, respectively, on Utah and won both games. In just two weeks, the Bruins have risen from unranked to 11th in the AP poll and from 19th to eighth in SP+ (which projected them to cover in both games). Running back Zach Charbonnet is on pace for more than 1,500 yards, linebacker Laiatu Latu is averaging more than a sack per game and quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has become, at worst, a second-tier Heisman contender.
Oregon? Twelfth in the AP poll and ninth in SP+. The Ducks were 48th in the latter following their opening week blowout loss to Georgia, but they have dominated almost all of their five games since, outscoring opponents by an average of 50-25. The defense isn't entirely trustworthy yet, but the offense is absurdly efficient -- it ranks second in overall success rate (second in rushing, third in passing) -- and either scores or creates great field position for the defense on most drives.
USC remains unbeaten following a comfortable 30-14 win over Washington State, and while SP+ still struggles to trust the Trojans -- they are 24th in SP+ (thanks to a defense that ranks 50th) but 10th in FPI -- they have a chance to all but eliminate Utah from the conference race next week in Salt Lake City. That game could determine whether we've got a three- or four-way battle for the Pac-12 championship, and then, in Week 7, we get UCLA at Oregon. What a delightful battle this has become.
A note about Texas Tech and fourth downs
No. 7 Oklahoma State 41, Texas Tech 31
Say this much for Joey McGuire's Texas Tech Red Raiders: They are absolutely fearless. They played five ranked (at the time) opponents in a row, beat two of them (Houston and Texas) and were tied or three points of two others in the fourth quarter (Kansas State and Oklahoma State) before eventually falling.
They did this despite suffering some major injury issues at quarterback -- starter Tyler Shough threw just 10 passes in the opener before suffering a shoulder injury (he should return in the coming weeks), and backup Donovan Smith was sidelined for Saturday's challenge of Oklahoma State, giving way to redshirt freshman Behren Morton, who was doing great until a third-quarter ankle injury of his own.
Their secret weapon to overcoming these issues and trading blows with good teams: remembering that 4 > 3.
No FBS team has attempted more fourth-down conversions than the Red Raiders, who are 14-for-25 through six games. Their six successful conversions against Texas made most of the difference in that upset win, and they converted four more in building an 8-point, third-quarter cushion against OSU on Saturday. While there have been a few by-necessity attempts -- Smith's fourth-and-20 completion to Jerand Bradley in overtime against Houston, for example -- most of this is a deliberate strategy and a reflection of the times. Tech has gone for it five times on fourth-and-1 (including twice in its own territory), seven times on fourth-and-2 or 3 and five times on fourth-and-4 or 5.
Last spring, I spoke with Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin and an army of nerds about the sharp and rather sudden increase in fourth-down attempts at the college level. It was the lowest-hanging fruit on the analytics tree, and once a few teams found success in picking it, much of the rest of the country followed suit.
That trend has certainly continued this fall. Just five seasons ago in 2017, only one team averaged more than three fourth-down attempts per game (Syracuse), and only five were over 2.5. Thus far in 2022, two teams are over four (Tech and Central Michigan), nine are over three and 21 are over 2.5.
I'm going to follow Mina Kimes' lead and declare that we're looking at fourth downs all wrong. So many coaches and fans (and announcing crews) look at the uptick in fourth-down attempts somewhat skeptically, as if nerds and their spreadsheets and pocket protectors are having an undue and untoward impact on the way the game is being played. Nonsense! We should instead look at it as an uptick in bravery and alpha behavior. And there's probably some poetry in the fact that a team from West Texas, with its gun-slinging mascot, is leading the way in this rugged, bravado-heavy activity. Keep showing us the way, Tech. Keep playing your fearless ball.
Who won the Heisman this week?
We're attempting an experiment this season: What happens if I award the Heisman every single week of the season and dole out weekly points, F1 style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second, etc.)? How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
1. Israel Abanikanda, Pitt (36 carries for 320 yards and six TDs vs. Virginia Tech)
2. Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo (four interceptions and two pick-sixes vs. Northern Illinois)
3. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State (21-for-26 for 361 yards, six TDs and one INT vs. Michigan State)
4. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA (18-for-23 for 299 yards, four TDs and one INT, plus a rushing touchdown, vs. Utah)
5. Bo Nix, Oregon (20-for-25 for 265 yards, plus 70 rushing yards, and three TDs vs. Arizona)
6. Kurtis Rourke, Ohio (24-for-27 for 427 yards and three TDs, plus 32 rushing yards, vs. Akron)
7. Quinn Ewers, Texas (21-for-31 for 289 yards, four TDs and one INT vs. Oklahoma)
8. Jonathan Mingo, Ole Miss (nine catches for 247 yards and two TDs vs. Vanderbilt)
9. Jose Ramirez, Eastern Michigan (six tackles, four sacks and a forced fumble vs. Western Michigan)
10. Quentin Johnson, TCU (14 catches for 206 yards and 1 TD vs. Kansas)
Week 6 gave us the requisite amount of awesome quarterback performances (albeit from some names we perhaps didn't expect), but two players stood out.
Pitt labored with a very game Virginia Tech team Saturday afternoon, falling behind 16-7 in the first half, but the Panthers had Izzy Abanikanda, and the Hokies did not. His third touchdown, early in the third quarter, gave Pitt the lead for good, and when a blocked punt brought Tech back within 2 in the fourth quarter, Abanikanda's fifth and sixth touchdowns -- the last an 80-yarder -- put the game away. Anytime you can break a Tony Dorsett record, you know you had a truly unreal performance.
Izzy Abanikanda breaks Tony Dorsett's Pitt record for rushing yards in a game!
— Pitt Football (@Pitt_FB) October 8, 2022
» Abanikanda, 320 and counting...
» Dorsett, 303 vs. Notre Dame, 1975
👏 @IAbanikanda
#H2P » #BeatVT pic.twitter.com/lhr8iWe9P5
And while it may be difficult for a defensive player to stand out statistically, here's one way to do it: Pick off four passes and return two of them for touchdowns.
"Catch it like a cornerback, that's an interception (x2)" - B.o.B & @quinbangout14 @ToledoFB | #MACtion pic.twitter.com/mZhIljujrL
— #MACtion (@MACSports) October 8, 2022
Northern Illinois quarterback Ethan Hampton had a decent day, completing 30 of 49 passes for 284 yards. Unfortunately, his three leading receivers were Harrison Waylee (10 catches), Messiah Travis (six) ... and Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, who not only scored twice but picked off a pass in Toledo's end zone, as well. He basically made the entire difference in a 52-32 Rockets win.
Here are five more deserving honorable mentions:
• Jason Bean, Kansas (16-for-24 for 262 yards, four TDs and one INT, plus 34 rushing yards, vs. TCU in one half!)
• Zach Charbonnet, UCLA (22 carries for 198 yards and one TD vs. Utah)
• Chimere Dike, Wisconsin (10 catches for 185 yards and three TDs vs. Northwestern)
• Tuli Tuipulotu, USC (five tackles and three sacks among four TFLs vs. Washington State)
• Chevan Cordeiro, San Jose State (18-for-27 for 230 yards and two TDs, plus 109 rushing yards and two TDs, vs. UNLV)
Through six weeks, here's how the point totals have shaken out.
1. Jalon Daniels, Kansas (24 points)
2. CJ Stroud, Ohio State (23 points)
3T. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA (17 points)
3T. Bryce Young, Alabama (17 points)
5. Caleb Williams, USC (16 points)
6. Stetson Bennett, Georgia (15 points)
7T. Adrian Martinez, Kansas State (14 points)
7T. Drake Maye, North Carolina (14 points)
9. Bo Nix, Oregon (12 points)
10T. Israel Abanikanda, Pitt (10 points)
10T. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee (10 points)
With Bryce Young's injury, plus a few weeks of mortality from Williams, the Heisman race has begun to take on a "CJ Stroud vs. the field" feel. At DraftKings, Stroud's odds have surged to -130 (implied odds of 57%), while Williams, Young, Hooker, Thompson-Robinson and Michigan's Blake Corum are all between +1,000 (9%) and +1,800 (5%).
To date, this F1-style exercise is providing similar results. Stroud moved into second place with his nearly perfect performance against Michigan State, but Young, Williams, DTR and Georgia's Bennett are all but one perfect performance away from potentially surging into the lead. (Hooker and Corum are a bit further back at 10 and 7 points, respectively, but they're still within reach.) Poor Jalon Daniels, who left Kansas' loss to TCU with a shoulder injury, missed out on an opportunity to extend his lead.
I've never been the biggest Heisman fan, but this is a fun exercise!
Also receiving points: Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama (9); Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo (9); Michael Penix Jr., Washington (9); Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State (9); Max Duggan, TCU (8); Derek Parish, Houston (8); Will Anderson Jr., Alabama (7); Blake Corum, Michigan (7); Bijan Robinson, Texas (7); Chase Cunningham, MTSU (6); Evan Hull, Northwestern (6); Anthony Richardson, Florida (6); Clark Phillips III, Utah (5); Kurtis Rourke, Ohio (5); Raheim Sanders, Arkansas (5); DJ Uiagalelei, Clemson (5), Quinn Ewers, Texas (4); Jaydn Ott, Cal (4); Tory Taylor, Iowa (4); Miyan Williams, Ohio State (4); Jordan Addison, USC (3); Braelon Allen, Wisconsin (3); Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma (3); Jonathan Mingo, Ole Miss (3); Garrett Shrader, Syracuse (3); Jadrian Taylor, UTEP (3); Sam Hartman, Wake Forest (2); Daiyan Henley, Washington State (2); Jose Ramirez, EMU (2); Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland (2); Jacoby Windmon, Michigan State (2); Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State (1); Todd Centeio, JMU (1); Quentin Johnson, TCU (1); John Rhys Plumlee, UCF (1).
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
3. Oregon State 28, Stanford 27
7. Arizona State 45, Washington 38
8. North Carolina 27, Miami 24
9. UTSA 31, Western Kentucky 28
10T. D2: No. 7 Pittsburg State 24, No. 9 NW Missouri State 22
10T. D2: No. 1 Ferris State 33, No. 25 Saginaw Valley 28
Give Dana Holgorsen and his Houston Cougars this: What they lack in consistency, they make up for with fortitude and panache. They have already played in three overtime games this season (a wild comeback win over UTSA and losses to Texas Tech and Tulane), and they needed 10 points in the final 5:18 to fend off city rival Rice in late September.
But on Friday night in Memphis, they painted their dramatic masterpiece. The Coogs were dead in the water, trailing 26-7 early in the fourth quarter, but a 100-yard Jayce Rogers kick return bought them time, and two Clayton Tune-to-KeSean Carter touchdown passes in the final 77 seconds -- with an onside kick recovery in between -- gave them a shocking win.
Meanwhile, at the Division II level, we had a trio of big matchups, and while No. 11 West Florida manhandled No. 16 West Georgia in one, the other two were classics. Pitt State bolted to a 21-3 halftime lead over conference heavyweight NW Missouri State but had to make a 2-point conversion stop with 12 seconds left to secure the upset (and control of the MIAA). And up in Michigan, defending national champion Ferris State, winner of 19 in a row and 46 of 48, needed 13 fourth-quarter points and a Carson Gulker touchdown with 1:11 left to fend off dangerous and upset-minded SVSU.