Several fascinating themes are emerging in a college football coaching carousel that figures to be one of the wildest in recent memory.
1. A lot of jobs are open. The carousel counter is already up to 12 FBS coaching departures, including Virginia Tech and Justin Fuente parting Tuesday morning, although three positions (Texas Tech, Georgia Southern and UConn) have already been filled.
2. Big jobs are open and more are likely coming open. USC and LSU both made changes by the halfway point in the season, Washington fired Jimmy Lake on Sunday, and Florida is being closely watched.
3. Many of the carousel's hottest candidates face difficult decisions about whether to leave their current jobs.
This story will focus on the third item. Every coach courted by another school faces a stay-or-go decision. Often these are no-brainers, especially when programs such as LSU or USC say they want you.
But the circumstances surrounding this year's group of top candidates -- and even the jobs open or likely to come open -- make the upcoming decisions especially difficult. For example, Cincinnati's Luke Fickell and BYU's Kalani Sitake have dramatically improved their stocks at ascending programs that will soon enter the Big 12. Fickell leaving Cincinnati for, say, USC, isn't as obvious as it normally would be.
Oregon gave Mario Cristobal a second chance at becoming a head coach when few others seemed interested. Cristobal is building the newest Duck dynasty, as the team aims for its third Pac-12 title and its first College Football Playoff appearance since 2014. But Cristobal's potential suitors -- LSU, USC, possibly Florida -- offer better locations and more national championship tradition.
Here's a look at the key candidates, their potential suitors and the pros and cons of staying or going. Also, we have the latest buzz around the coaching carousel as more hirings and firings are on the horizon.
Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell
Record: 45-14
Age: 48
Potential suitors: USC, LSU, possibly Florida, possibly Penn State
Why he should stay: Cincinnati's move to the Big 12 no later than 2024 is a game-changer. If Fickell stays, he soon will hold one of the better jobs in a Power 5 league. The inevitable expanded playoff will give Cincinnati the type of access it doesn't currently enjoy as a top Group of 5 team. Fickell is also more rooted at his current job than other coaches. He has spent his entire professional career in his home state of Ohio, and both he and his wife are from Columbus. Fickell isn't going to uproot his family just to chase money elsewhere. Cincinnati pays him well ($3.4 million) and will increase his compensation if he stays put. Perhaps Fickell's biggest reason to stay is that the two big regional jobs he is best suited to take -- Ohio State and Notre Dame -- are not expected to open in this cycle.
Why he should go: His stock likely will never be higher, and he has an obvious connection to one of the biggest job openings. USC athletic director Mike Bohn hired Fickell at Cincinnati. Fickell would have immediate support in Los Angeles with Bohn and deputy athletic director Brandon Sosna, who went with Bohn from Cincinnati. An excellent recruiter, Fickell can adapt well to pretty much any region, and there are simply more elite players in California with USC, or in Louisiana if LSU comes calling. While the playoff would be a great accomplishment at Cincinnati, Fickell would have an easier time competing for national titles at schools such as USC, LSU and Florida. He also could have a regional opportunity at Penn State, if James Franklin moves on.
Oregon coach Mario Cristobal
Record: 34-11
Age: 51
Potential suitors: LSU, USC, possibly Florida, possibly Miami
Why he should stay: Cristobal has a great thing going at Oregon. The program sits atop the Pac-12 both in winning and in recruiting. Resources are not an issue for a program backed by Nike cofounder Phil Knight. Oregon has allowed Cristobal to attract top assistants such as offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead and structure recruiting and other areas like some of the top national programs in the SEC and elsewhere. The Pac-12 is historically weak, and Oregon's path to an expanded playoff seems wide open if it maintains the current trajectory. While the third-ranked Ducks are positioned for a playoff spot this year, Cristobal is set to have an even better team in 2022. Would he want to leave for a potential rebuild elsewhere?
Why he should go: Oregon can't move its campus and will always be behind other nationally elite programs with a smaller pool of top local prospects. A top recruiter, Cristobal knows this and has seen the luxuries other programs enjoy, especially in the Southeast. Few FBS head coaches work harder at recruiting than Cristobal, but he wouldn't have to cast such a wide net at programs such as LSU, USC, Florida or Miami. He worked in the SEC at Alabama under Nick Saban, and that potentially makes LSU appealing. If the Florida or Miami job comes open, Cristobal would have the emotional pull of returning to his home state and possibly home city/alma mater. The cost of Miami's coaching transaction to land Cristobal likely would be prohibitive, but Cristobal would have a chance to restore his school to glory.
Iowa State coach Matt Campbell
Record: 41-32
Age: 41
Potential suitors: USC, LSU, Washington, possibly Penn State, possibly Florida
Why he should stay: Despite a disappointing 2021 season, Campbell has built a great thing at Iowa State, historically one of the toughest Power 5 jobs. The Cyclones regularly compete with and beat the Big 12's top teams. Even this year, the Cyclones handed No. 10 Oklahoma State its only loss. The team won the Fiesta Bowl last year and will make its fifth straight postseason appearance. Iowa State fans love him, and the school repeatedly has rewarded him with better contracts. Athletic director Jamie Pollard is a major advocate for Campbell. Iowa State continues to recruit well, and it should keep competing in the Big 12, especially when Oklahoma and Texas depart. Also, the jobs Campbell is believed to be truly targeting -- Michigan, Notre Dame and Ohio State -- aren't expected to open this year.
Why he should go: Some in the industry believe Campbell has done all that he can in Ames, especially after this season fell so far below expectations. Iowa State will lose most of its core players, including multiyear All-Big 12 performers. Campbell has generated interest from Tier 1 college programs and even the NFL. The timing for a move up seems right to see if he can recruit and compete consistently at a higher level. While the Massillon, Ohio, native hasn't ventured too far from home, his move into the Big 12 shows he can succeed in a league largely outside his home region. Campbell could be a good choice to stabilize USC. He also has some similarities with Chris Petersen and would be an interesting option to revive the Washington program that Petersen bolstered. If James Franklin somehow left Penn State, Campbell would be a natural fit in Happy Valley.
Penn State coach James Franklin
Record: 66-32
Age: 49
Potential suitors: USC, possibly Florida
Why he should stay: Franklin still has some clear goals at Penn State, including getting the program into the playoff for the first time. Despite a 10-9 record since the start of 2020, Penn State might not be that far away from a breakthrough. Franklin has turned around momentum in recruiting after a subpar 2021 class, and Penn State currently has the nation's No. 3 class (tops in the Big Ten) for 2022. The group is filled with top in-state prospects, and Penn State also went into Ohio for quarterback Drew Allar, ESPN's No. 3 pocket passer. Penn State's administration has been supportive and doesn't want to go through a coaching search, which might give Franklin more leverage for an enhanced contract despite the recent results.
Why he should go: The past two seasons indicate it could be time for a reset. While Franklin's on-field struggles might preclude a big move, his overall profile of success in college football's top two conferences (Big Ten, SEC) still makes him an appealing candidate. He has long been linked to the USC job. Franklin's outgoing personality would play well in Los Angeles, where he would recruit at a high level and bring a more established approach to program leadership. He also likely would connect very well with Bohn. His commitment to recruiting and knowledge of the SEC make him an intriguing option for Florida. Franklin ultimately wants to win a national championship, and Penn State's struggles to leapfrog Ohio State -- and its hard-to-access location -- make jobs such as USC and Florida more appealing.
BYU coach Kalani Sitake
Record: 46-28
Age: 46
Potential suitors: Washington, USC, possibly Arizona State, possibly Oregon
Why he should stay: Sitake played fullback at BYU for Hall of Fame coach LaVell Edwards, who led the program for 29 seasons. He appreciates the value of longevity, especially at a place that means so much to him. After elevating the program the past two seasons, Sitake would be the coach to guide BYU into a Power 5 conference again and back to a bigger national profile. BYU will have a much easier time contending for playoff spots in the Big 12 than as an FBS independent. Sitake works under one of the nation's best athletic directors in Tom Holmoe, and for a program that doesn't lack resources or fan support. His vision is reflected in the way BYU recruits and plays, and if he leaves now, he won't be able to fully see things through with the school in a major conference.
Why he should leave: A move to the Big 12 doesn't guarantee continued success for BYU and Sitake. Programs often struggle in new leagues, and BYU will be the western-most outpost of the new Big 12. Poor results could bring back the pressure that existed after Sitake went 18-21 from 2017 to 2019. Sitake might end up having an easier path to the playoff if he takes a top-tier Pac-12 job such as USC, Washington or Oregon (if Cristobal leaves). He knows the Pac-12 well as a former defensive coordinator at both Oregon State and Utah, and has recruited California and the Northwest for much of his career. The pipeline of Polynesian players at USC, Washington and Oregon make Sitake an interesting choice, as none of those programs has ever had a head coach of Polynesian descent. He might have more to consider with a job like Arizona State, although there are pluses there too.
Michigan State coach Mel Tucker
Record: 16-13
Age: 49
Potential suitors: LSU, USC, possibly Florida
Why he should stay: Tucker already makes more than $5 million per year and might be on the verge of a significant contract extension that secures his long-term future at MSU. Tucker brilliantly worked the transfer portal to transform MSU's roster, and the Spartans look like an annual contender in the Big Ten East Division. He has earned plenty of goodwill by beating Michigan in his first two years. Although Tucker has coached in the NFL and the SEC, he's a Cleveland native who played in the Big Ten (Wisconsin) and began his coaching career as an MSU graduate assistant for Nick Saban. Michigan State isn't a place that fires coaches for not winning championships annually. If Tucker wants stability at a program that has a playoff appearance -- and could contend for others, especially in an expanded field -- he should remain in East Lansing.
Why he should leave: Tucker has coached at the highest levels of the sport -- Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, LSU -- and understands both the advantages those jobs carry and the challenges with expectations and other factors. Unlike some coaches who take Tier 1 jobs, he wouldn't walk in the door and be surprised by what he sees. He knows the SEC, where one top job (LSU) is open and another (Florida) could soon be looking for a coach. Tucker also understands the personnel element better than most coaches from his time with three NFL teams and with college programs that recruit the best high school prospects. While he might be a stronger fit at LSU than USC, he also spent a year in the Pac-12 at Colorado and could adjust to the Los Angeles market. Michigan State is a solid program, but it also ranks No. 4 in its own division in resources behind Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State.
Baylor coach Dave Aranda
Record: 10-9
Age: 45
Potential suitors: USC, LSU, Washington, possibly Oregon
Why he should stay: Aranda is just starting to get rolling at Baylor, which is 8-2 and set to rise in Tuesday night's CFP rankings after beating previously undefeated Oklahoma on Saturday. Baylor gave Aranda his first chance as a head coach -- few remember he briefly considered UNLV before coming to Waco -- and will remain supported with resources for staff and other areas. Mack Rhoades is one of the more respected athletic directors in the country. The location, resources and recent success at Baylor will make it one of the Big 12's better jobs when the league is realigned. Although Aranda helped LSU win a national championship in 2019, he's also aware of the drama and politics around the program and might be better off staying in an environment such as Baylor.
Why he should go: Aranda's stock is surging. Other than Michigan State's Mel Tucker, no Power 5 coach has made a bigger impression around the industry than Aranda, whose steady approach, creative defense and player development philosophy have attracted potential suitors. There's no telling if a guy without much head-coaching experience will remain on the radar for programs of USC's caliber. Aranda is the only top USC candidate with direct ties to the area, as he grew up in Redlands, California, and attended Cal Lutheran. He also could be a very interesting candidate if Oregon loses Cristobal. Would Aranda view Washington as a step up from Baylor? Washington is a much bigger school in an urban setting with much more long-term history. He has options and might want to strike when his stock is so hot.
Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher
Record: 33-13
Age: 56
Potential suitor: LSU
Why he should stay: Fisher has run through the reasons twice in recent weeks, but it boils down to Texas A&M giving him everything he wants and more. He's paid extremely well, especially for a coach who has one top-five finish but not much of significance in his other three seasons. Fisher has top-notch facilities and resources to put together the staff he wants. He's located in an excellent area for top recruits, and has a 2022 recruiting class currently ranked No. 6 nationally by ESPN. Texas A&M's win against Alabama earlier fall showed the Aggies can compete with the SEC's best. At some point, Texas A&M fans will want championships, but the expectation level around the program isn't the same as it would be at LSU. Fisher loves the school and the area and could easily retire in this job.
Why he should go: If Fisher wants to add another national championship to his tally, history says LSU is the move. Texas A&M has spent money for decades with little to show for it. LSU, meanwhile, has won three national titles with three different coaches since 2003 and always has the potential to break through, despite the drama and dysfunction around the program. Fisher loves LSU, where he won a national title as offensive coordinator under Nick Saban in 2003. He also knows LSU athletic director Scott Woodward, who hired him at Texas A&M and likely would love to have him back. Fisher wouldn't be surprised by the perks and challenges of the job. He would recruit extremely well and bring a strong track record of quarterback development to a program largely starved for it.
Coaching carousel notes
• Lane Kiffin's name has hovered around the fringes for the LSU job, not getting as much traction as Jimbo Fisher or Mel Tucker. Will that start to change? Kiffin continues to impress at Ole Miss, which outclassed Fisher's Texas A&M team on Saturday night to improve to 8-2. Kiffin has delivered the quarterback development, recruiting buzz and on-field development that Ole Miss wanted. The defense is making strides too. While LSU athletic director Scott Woodward is believed to be focused on Fisher, he might want to look at the coach who just beat him.
Fisher will have at least three losses for the third time in four years with the Aggies. He's not living up to the historic contract Woodward gave him at Texas A&M. He also is showing zero desire to leave College Station, reiterating his commitment to the program on Monday. Kiffin doesn't have as much championship-level success as a head coach, but he knows the SEC, develops quarterbacks and can recruit. Florida might be an even better fit if it opens, given the Steve Spurrier/Fun 'n Gun offense tradition, but there are some doubts about whether athletic director Scott Stricklin would hire Kiffin.
"That would be out of Scott's box," an industry source said.
• Miami is once again in the spotlight following its loss Saturday at Florida State and Monday's departure of athletic director Blake James. An athletic director change often preempts a head-coaching change, and sources told ESPN over the weekend that if Miami fires Manny Diaz, the embattled James would not be the one finding his replacement. Before the FSU loss, Diaz had recorded three consecutive one-score wins behind emerging quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, but the Hurricanes blew a 28-20 fourth-quarter lead and did so with some infuriating mistakes/decisions. Also on Monday came a report that former players are gathering to discuss the state of the program. The external noise is always loud at Miami and often does not align with the financial realities of the university. If Diaz beats Virginia Tech (home) and Duke (road) to finish 7-5, he could be back in 2022. He no longer has the man who hired him in his corner, although James' comments to my colleague Andrea Adelson last month were far from a ringing endorsement of Diaz.
• The Pac-12 will be the epicenter of this year's coaching carousel with three openings already. What else could pop? UCLA coach Chip Kelly has a team bowl eligible for the first time in his Bruins tenure. Wins over USC and Cal should secure Kelly for 2022 with a new contract, but he's also working under an athletic director (Martin Jarmond) who did not hire him. The Arizona State job is being watched by coaches and agents, and there are even some whispers about Utah coach Kyle Whittingham and potential retirement. If Cristobal were to leave Oregon, the league would have most or all of its top-end jobs open. One name to keep in mind is Auburn coach Bryan Harsin. While leaving Auburn after one year would be stunning, Harsin had waited at Boise State for top Pac-12 jobs. Now that they're opening, would he consider a chance to return to more familiar territory?
• Florida International became the latest FBS job to open, as coach Butch Davis told The Action Network on Monday that he will not return in 2022. The change at FIU has been widely expected, and despite Davis' scathing comments about the school's administration, the job will generate plenty of interest. Texas A&M tight ends coach James Coley, a Miami native who spent a season as FIU's offensive coordinator (2007) and also has held coordinator stints at Miami and Florida State, should be a candidate. Other names include UCF co-offensive coordinator Tim Harris and Kansas State assistant head coach Van Malone.
• Memphis coach Ryan Silverfield should be back in 2022 despite a poor second season at the helm. The Tigers started 3-0 with a win over Mississippi State but have since dropped five of their past eight games, including Saturday's 30-29 home loss to East Carolina. Silverfield, signed through the 2024 season, is just 13-9 since replacing Mike Norvell before the Cotton Bowl in 2019. "They can't afford to do anything, but it's not trending in the right direction," an industry source said.