Finishing the regular season with a loss isn't just normal, it's expected -- even of College Football Playoff semifinalists, as 17 of the past 28 playoff teams finished the regular season with one loss.
So no, Michigan isn't out of it after Saturday's loss at Michigan State. Oregon still has a chance in spite of its bad loss to Stanford earlier this year, and Ohio State can make a case after its loss to Oregon on Sept. 11. The list goes on -- and it's time for the College Football Playoff selection committee to sort it out.
When the group meets this week in Grapevine, Texas, to determine its first of six rankings, which will be released Tuesday, how it regards the one-loss contenders will be very revealing about what is valued this fall. Does Oregon's head-to-head win over Ohio State put the Ducks ahead, or has the Buckeyes' improvement and win against Penn State now outweigh that? How high is Alabama after what was one of the most shocking upsets of the first half of the season?
How many one-loss teams, if any, are ranked ahead of undefeated Cincinnati?
The committee will use side-by-side statistical comparisons of these teams, along with cut-ups of game film, common opponents, head-to-head results and strength of schedule to help it decipher the order. Whom they lost to, where they lost, how they lost and when will all be a part of the conversation. Knowing the committee's strong standard for schedule strength, it's unrealistic to think the group would seriously consider one-loss Group of 5 teams like Coastal Carolina, Louisiana, SMU and Houston for a top-four finish, so they're not included here.
Here's a look at the case for and against each one-loss contender (in order of best chance to finish in top four), along with one-loss teams on the bubble that need a little more help:
Alabama
Loss: Oct. 9 at Texas A&M, 41-38
Case for the top four: Since losing to the Aggies, Alabama has outscored its opponents 101-33 and the Tide is again one of the most complete teams in the country, ranking in the top seven in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Alabama had a bye week to prepare for its Nov. 6 game against LSU, but the Tide shouldn't need it considering the state of both programs. ESPN's FPI gives Alabama at least an 82% chance to win each of its remaining regular-season games. How the selection committee ranks Texas A&M is also an important factor. When Alabama lost, the Aggies were a sputtering, unranked, two-loss team that seemed to have pulled off a miracle, but they have now won three straight. If the committee deems Texas A&M a top-25 team, the loss might not seem as bad now or in December as it did at the time.
Case against: Wins against Miami and Florida certainly don't carry the weight many had imagined they would heading into the season, so if Alabama doesn't win the SEC, it's going to be difficult for the committee to justify a two-loss Tide. Alabama's best wins would have been against Ole Miss and Auburn -- certainly respectable wins, but probably not enough without the conference title. Right now, Ole Miss and Mississippi State are the Tide's only wins against Power 5 opponents over .500. Ole Miss' loss to Auburn on Saturday night won't help Alabama's cause.
Ohio State
Loss: Sept. 11 vs. Oregon, 35-28
Case for the top four: It got a major boost with the win against the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State finally beat a challenging opponent and was tested in the process. Ohio State has reeled off six straight wins since its loss to Oregon, and the Buckeyes' playoff résumé can wind up being one of the best in the country. Its remaining strength of schedule is ranked No. 10. The Buckeyes end November with back-to-back games against Michigan State and Michigan, which could potentially be two top-10 teams, and possibly one top-four team in Michigan State. It would also likely punctuate its résumé with a win against a ranked opponent in the Big Ten title game. If Ohio State runs the table, it would have more than enough to compensate for the loss to the Ducks.
Case against: The loss to Oregon happened, and the selection committee uses head-to-head results as one of several tiebreakers when trying to separate teams it deems "comparable." It's only one factor, though, it's not weighted, and like everything else in this system, it's subjective. That's not to say Ohio State can't finish in the top four with Oregon. The question is whether Ohio State would get in at the Ducks' expense if they both finish as one-loss conference champs. The Buckeyes entered Saturday leading the FBS in total offense and scoring offense, but they were racking up points against five unranked teams. Saturday's win wasn't as easy. Ohio State looked vulnerable at times, and was only 5-of-14 on third downs. It needed four field goals and a fumble return to supplement a struggling offense that delivered just enough big plays.
"We're not trying to get style points in the game against Penn State," coach Ryan Day said after the game. "That's not how it works. You got to just win the game and we did that kicking field goals."
Oregon
Loss: Oct. 2 at Stanford, 31-24 (OT)
Case for the top four: Oregon's Sept. 11 win at Ohio State is still arguably the best nonconference victory of the season, and the head-to-head result will continue to be a critical component of the discussion -- especially if the Buckeyes go on to win the Big Ten. It might ultimately be more impactful than Cincinnati's win at Notre Dame if the Ducks and Bearcats run the table and win their respective conferences.
The committee will know that Oregon offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead wasn't at the Stanford game because of health reasons, running back CJ Verdell was carted into the locker room after a season-ending injury he suffered in the third quarter, and standout defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux was ejected for targeting and then had to sit out the first half of the Ducks' game against Cal. Oregon was decimated by injuries in the first half of the season, and on Saturday starting center Alex Forsyth missed his fourth game with back spasms.
Oregon still dominated a much weaker Colorado team Saturday, but it will have to win two of its final four games on the road Nov. 6 at Washington and Nov. 20 at Utah. If the Ducks can win convincingly down the stretch and finish as one-loss Pac-12 champs, the committee will at least consider them for a top-four spot.
Case against: Oregon has looked like an average team against some below-average opponents, and right now Ohio State is the only ranked opponent on the schedule. Oregon beat Cal by a touchdown and escaped UCLA with a 34-31 win, but while some will consider this struggling, others will see it as resiliency in the face of adversity.
"I'm not too concerned about that term 'style points,'" coach Mario Cristobal said after Saturday's win. "I want to play our guys. I want to get our guys ready to go down this home stretch and have them get reps, and get experience playing so that when they do have to play, in critical parts of games down the line, that they are ready to play. That was the most important thing. We did that and still won a game comfortably. So, I think it speaks strongly about us. We certainly have big goals and expectations, but it all starts with the 1-0 and we're right back on that process."
Typically, playoff contenders are ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and Oregon is No. 23 and No. 26 in those categories, respectively. The loss to Stanford was the worst loss of any of the teams in this group, as Stanford is an unranked 3-4 team and the Ducks squandered a 24-17 lead early in the fourth quarter. Oregon's remaining schedule strength is No. 56 in the country, and it might not face a ranked opponent in the conference championship game, assuming it gets there. Every team in the Pac-12 South has at least three losses -- not exactly lining up to be the kind of blockbuster matchup that could sway the committee.
Michigan
Loss: Saturday vs. Michigan State, 37-33
Case for the top four: Some committee members might consider this a "good loss" -- a close game to an undefeated top-10 rival on the road. While it puts Michigan behind in the Big Ten East division, it doesn't put the Wolverines out, but they need Michigan State to lose twice. It's not impossible because the Spartans still have to travel to Ohio State on Nov. 20 before ending the regular season at home against Penn State. If Michigan State drops those two games -- and Michigan finds a way to beat those same teams -- the negative narrative surrounding Jim Harbaugh will change instantly. Michigan's remaining strength of schedule is No. 7 in the country, and if it can finish as a one-loss Big Ten champion with a win against a ranked opponent in the conference title game, the Wolverines are in.
Case against: #youhadonejob. This was Michigan's first opportunity against a ranked opponent this season -- on a critical Saturday before the committee's first ranking -- and the Wolverines didn't get it done. They relinquished a 16-point lead and settled for field goals while the Spartans scored touchdowns and outscored Michigan 15-3 in the fourth quarter. Michigan has only defeated one Power 5 opponent (Wisconsin) with a winning record this fall. If Michigan couldn't get it done against Michigan State, it's hard to fathom the Wolverines beating both Penn State and rival Ohio State. ESPN's FPI gives Michigan a 37.8% chance to beat the Buckeyes at home on Nov. 27.
Notre Dame
Loss: Oct. 2 vs. Cincinnati, 24-13
Case for the top four: It's tough to make. The Irish lost the game that mattered the most -- and it happened at home. Even if they win out, their best win will likely be Sept. 25 against Wisconsin, which has won its past four games and rebounded from a 1-3 start. Notre Dame might not face another ranked opponent this season, and it doesn't have a conference championship game to boost its résumé. The Irish would need some big-time chaos in the Power 5 conference races in order to be taken seriously as a top-four team.
Case against: Notre Dame is a young team that has battled inexperience on its offensive line, which had to replace four starters who went to the NFL. It has struggled to find its identity and has used multiple quarterbacks in the process beyond starter Jack Coan. Because of that, Notre Dame hasn't looked like a top-four team and it only has four games remaining to change that perception. Of those four opponents, only Virginia (6-2) has a winning record, and ESPN's FPI gives the Irish a 48.4% chance to win that game on the road. Not only do the Irish have to win out, they have to dominate along the way. Navy, Georgia Tech and Stanford are currently a combined 8-15.
One-loss bubble watch
The number of one-loss teams shrank Saturday, with Kentucky and Ole Miss both losing. The Big 12 is still one of the most interesting Power 5 races, as Oklahoma remains the lone undefeated team, but Baylor and Oklahoma State can still finish as one-loss conference champs.
Problem is, they still have to beat the Sooners to do it.
Baylor: The Bears' lone loss was Oct. 2 at Oklahoma State, 24-14, so they'll need to run the table and hope to avoid a tiebreaker situation with the Cowboys. If they both beat OU, they could face each other a second time in the Big 12 title game, giving Baylor a chance to avenge its loss with the committee watching.
Saturday's 31-24 win against Texas was important for the program, but it also raises the question of whether the committee will rank the Longhorns and what a win against Texas really amounts to this season -- not just for Baylor, but for the Sooners as well. ESPN's FPI only gives Baylor a 33.6% chance to beat Oklahoma on Nov. 13. If the Bears can finish as one-loss conference champions, though, they could wind up with a more impressive résumé than Cincinnati. Some of that depends on if BYU is ranked in the committee's top 25.
Oklahoma State: The Cowboys rebounded from their 24-21 loss at Iowa State with a 55-3 thumping of Kansas on Saturday. It didn't help Oklahoma State's case that Iowa State lost at West Virginia. It's one thing to lose a close game on the road to a top-25 team, but if the Cyclones spin below .500, it could be an issue. Oklahoma State is ranked No. 4 in the country in defensive efficiency, but its offense has been mostly pedestrian. The Cowboys will have to win two of their last four on the road -- Nov. 6 at West Virginia and Nov. 20 at Texas Tech. ESPN's FPI only gives Oklahoma State a 35.4% chance to win Bedlam.