The picture that captures the hottest trend in college quarterbacking is making the rounds.
It shows three men, each wearing gear from different Power 5 schools, with the sun on their smiling faces. The picture was taken in April, but in Arizona, the sun shines year-round. They are standing in Tumbleweed Park in Chandler, in one of the many large suburbs of Phoenix, on one of the many fields where local quarterbacks practice their craft any time they want.
The two young men on the left, Tyler Shough and Brock Purdy, will lead No. 25 Oregon and No. 10 Iowa State on Saturday in the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl (4 p.m. ET, ESPN and the ESPN App), as the premier college football game in their home state celebrates its 50th anniversary. Shough and Purdy started playing club baseball together as middle schoolers and later led their high school teams in two epic Arizona state playoff clashes that produced 251 combined points. They also trained together with Dan Manucci, the third man in the picture, a former Kansas State and NFL quarterback who led the Big 8 in passing in 1978.
"What are the odds that two guys, they grew up five miles apart, they played each other in high school, they work out in the offseason with me, now they're going to get a chance to play each other in the Fiesta Bowl?" Manucci said. "It's like, 'Wow. There must be something going on out there.'"
There is something big going on in Arizona at the quarterback position. Both the Big 12 and Pac-12 championship games featured starting quarterbacks from Arizona: Purdy and Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler, and Shough and USC's Kedon Slovis. Of the 12 quarterbacks starting New Year's Six bowls, three are from Arizona, more than any other state. Jack Plummer finished the season as Purdue's starter, and Ohio State (Jack Miller), Florida State (Chubba Purdy, Brock's brother), BYU (Jacob Conover) and others all could have starters from Arizona in 2021.
Arizona isn't among the top states for FBS players, and it doesn't really pop as a per-capita producer of talent. But there's an outsize quarterback output from the desert that probably isn't stopping.
"It's the hotbed right now," said Florida State offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham, who grew up in Scottsdale. "Everybody knows Arizona. The success rate right now, that's one of the biggest pieces. It's not like people are going there and missing on kids. They're going and hitting."
A combination of factors and timing has helped Arizona become a surprise hub of college quarterbacks. Here's how it happened.
Like many Arizona natives, USC's Slovis has extended family in the Midwest. His father, Max, grew up near Detroit, and they have cousins in Chicago.
"We'd go out there for Thanksgiving, play Thanksgiving football," Kedon Slovis recalled. "That weather [in the Midwest] is not ideal to play quarterback in, so it's definitely more ideal to throw the ball out here in the desert."
Arizona's weather is a plus for all of its residents, including aspiring young quarterbacks. Outside of the fall season, there's spring football, 7-on-7 leagues and private or group sessions with quarterback trainers such as Manucci and Mike Giovando, who works with Rattler, Plummer, Miller and 2021 recruits like Oregon's Ty Thompson and Cal's Kai Millner, both ranked among ESPN's top 115 players.
Giovando's upcoming quarterback camp has 175 players signed up and 30 on the waiting list. The dates: Jan. 16 and 17.
"You train year-round, you're outside, you get to throw, you get to do those things with the weather there," Iowa State coach Matt Campbell said. "There's a lot of huge positives to that."
Giovando, a former high school and junior college coach who played quarterback in junior college, added: "You're not taking a month off here or there. You're getting that consistency, and those mechanics are getting ingrained in you on a weekly basis, sometimes two or three times a week."
Quarterbacks don't need much equipment or even many other people to train effectively, but they benefit from throwing in natural settings.
"You can work offensive line inside a training facility," Dillingham said. "You can't work quarterback in a 20-foot box inside of a weight room. You can't go and throw in Minnesota or some of these colder weather climates. But Arizona, it's 62 degrees out on Christmas Eve. So it gives [Arizona] a competitive advantage."
Even when Arizona quarterbacks aren't throwing footballs daily, they're probably doing something athletic. Rattler and Slovis played basketball, and Shough and Purdy played club baseball together as eighth-graders on the Chandler Reds (Purdy's father, Shawn, pitched eight seasons of minor league baseball). Shough, who attended a baseball powerhouse at Hamilton High School, said, "Baseball helped me out in football dramatically."
"Baseball's the No. 1 sport," Dillingham said. "If you can throw the baseball, the transition to quarterback, it's natural. [Patrick] Mahomes, Russell Wilson, all those guys, Kyler Murray, their success is because of the carryover."
Arizona is hardly the only place with a favorable climate, but few states have more offseason appeal for athletes. Many pros live there or train there for portions of the offseason.
In March, Giovando received a call from Luke Neal, a friend who trains NFL running backs Ronald Jones and Jamaal Williams.
"He's like, 'I've got these guys here for a while, I want to get their hands better. Can I bring them out to start catching balls?'" Giovando said. "I'm like, 'Brother, they'll catch 500 balls a day.'"
Because of the coronavirus pandemic, several college quarterbacks who work with Giovando were home from school. So Rattler, Plummer and his brother, Will (a quarterback at Arizona), and Giovando's other college and high school students threw passes to Jones and Williams twice a week.
"We had training sessions with 30-plus D-I guys, NFL players," Rattler said. "We were doing it big out here when we're all together. It shows Arizona is the hot spot for quarterbacks right now."
Arizona rising
Arizona's changing demographics also contribute to the quarterback trend.
The state is projected to rise to 14th in population, up from 16th in the 2010 census, and is the second-fastest-growing state behind Idaho, according to the United States Census Bureau. Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix and large suburbs like Mesa, Chandler and Scottsdale, is the nation's fourth-most-populated county. As Dillingham notes, "Phoenix is a naturally more affluent area, so kids can pay for training."
The state's best high school programs -- Chandler, Hamilton, Chaparral, Saguaro -- are clustered in the same metro area.
"It's insane," Shough said. "My school district [Hamilton], I went to the largest public school in Arizona, with over 4,000 kids. And a mile down the road, there's another 3,700, another 3,900. You drive 15 minutes and go up to Tempe or Scottsdale, and there's a bunch of kids who go to high school there. It's an influx of kids, and it's extremely competitive."
Giovando has trained quarterbacks in the area for about 20 years, and since 2015 has seen his roster double from 50 to 60 to well over 100. Specialized training has become a requirement for quarterbacks seeking to lead FBS programs, and what Arizona offers -- accomplished coaches like Giovando and Manucci, perfect weather, strong competition -- makes it an ideal spot.
"I've been around to a lot of states with different coaches and this and that, and I still think Arizona has the best quarterback coaches," Rattler said. "I don't know why, but it just is."
There's a strong local base of quarterbacks, and others move to the Phoenix area to train. Nicco Marchiol, an ESPN Junior 300 quarterback, moved from Colorado to Arizona, where he trains with Giovando and attends Hamilton High.
Manucci is working with quarterbacks from Texas, Utah and other areas of Arizona, such as Tucson.
"I have a kid that moved here from Washington. There's actually a kid down here from Massachusetts training with us right now. Nicco's from Colorado," Giovando said. "There's kids who think, 'Hey, something's going on down here. Maybe I'll have a better opportunity coming out of Arizona than I would in Massachusetts.' The attention seems to be here, on the state."
Arizona has typically produced at least one Power 5 quarterback per year, starting with UCLA's Brett Hundley in 2011 and continuing with Texas A&M's Kyle Allen in 2014 and Michigan State's Brian Lewerke and Arizona State's Bryce Perkins the following year. There's NFL representation with the Cincinnati Bengals' Ryan Finley, a Phoenix native who played at Boise State and NC State, and "FitzMagic," Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Miami Dolphins quarterback from Gilbert who attended Harvard.
But the volume of FBS quarterback prospects from Arizona is rising. Giovando said there are 20 local quarterbacks either playing at FBS programs, signed with them or carrying FBS offers. He's sending four to FBS programs this year.
"When you add some of these other coaches in there and some of the guys they have," Giovando said, "I won't see how we don't have six, seven guys every year for at least the next three years."
Manucci trains quarterbacks who reach all levels of college football, starting with NAIA programs. His students range from Ithaca College (Nathan Clayton) and Bucknell (Tyler Beverett) to the Purdy brothers, Shough and NFL players like Perkins of Los Angeles Rams.
"The population has exploded in the state of Arizona, and then just the caliber of coaching that you have here," Oregon coach Mario Cristobal said. "You've got great programs that have been great programs for a long time, and continue to invest more and more. ... You watch the amount of talent that's being developed, not just talent that's getting here but talent that's being developed here. It's no longer a secret."
Oregon's 2021 class currently features four players from Arizona, headlined by Thompson.
"It's certainly a focal point of our program to really establish great ties to the state of Arizona and this year was probably our biggest year recruiting in the state of Arizona," Cristobal said. "We want to grow that more and more, but [we're] certainly grateful for the coaches out here that gave us the opportunity and welcomed us to their programs to introduce ourselves and our program to players."
Arizona produced 12 ESPN 300 selections between 2015 and 2018, and only two quarterbacks. In the past three years, the state has 20 ESPN 300 prospects, including six quarterbacks.
"These kids are more prepared and more talented than they were 10, 12, 13 years ago," Manucci said. "More people are coming in, more high schools, better high school coaching, more private instruction, and kids are working at it almost year-round, so they're better.
"The last five to eight years, these [college] coaches are going, 'Damn, we've got to get out there and see what's going on.' And now they're believers."
The secret's out
Part of Taylor Mouser's job at Iowa State is to find players and areas the program can target for recruits. In 2002, Mouser's family moved to Chandler, Arizona, when he was in sixth grade. He saw firsthand the boom in population and players, and the increase in high schools producing FBS talent.
Mouser, a senior quality control coach at Iowa State who previously served as assistant director of scouting, also knew that Arizona State and Arizona were not as focused on in-state players. Todd Graham and Rich Rodriguez, the ASU and Arizona head coaches from 2012 to 2017, weren't from the state. Mouser went to Campbell and pitched an Arizona recruiting push.
"I just felt like there was a niche there to get really good people without having to fight," Mouser said. "Most states, the in-state schools dominate for the best kids."
What began as a general strategy soon became more quarterback-focused. Arizona had some national recruits like Rattler (ESPN's top dual-threat quarterback and No. 29 overall player in the 2019 class), but other quarterbacks like Brock Purdy (three stars, ESPN's No. 39 pocket passer in the 2018 class) went under the radar. Purdy had little Power 5 interest until after shining in the state playoffs as a senior. Suddenly, Alabama and Texas A&M were interested, along with UCF and others. But he picked Iowa State, crediting a longer relationship with the coaches there.
USC doesn't need unique recruiting approaches to get in doors, but the Trojans went to Arizona for Slovis, who lacked many Power 5 offers and ranked as ESPN's No. 17 pocket passer in the 2019 class.
"There are so many good quarterbacks on the West Coast, so many that some of them do get overlooked," USC coach Clay Helton said. "Arizona has become one of those areas that you've got to make sure you swing by and look under every rock. There are really good players out there.
"That Phoenix area and the entire state has really popped on everybody's radar."
Slovis exemplifies how Arizona's quarterback landscape has changed. He played at Desert Mountain High, where Allen played and where Pro Football Hall of Famer Kurt Warner served as offensive coordinator. But Desert Mountain isn't a football power.
"The top-tier schools, the Chandlers, the Saguaros, the Hamiltons, have lots of D-I kids," Slovis said. "My school isn't necessarily one of the better schools in the state, but we always had 1-2 players every year who are Division I talents. Those schools get slept on a little bit."
Not anymore. When recruiting reopens after the pandemic, college coaches probably will flock to Arizona. Recruiting there always has been an easy sell -- "Do you want to go January recruiting in Wisconsin, or do you want to go to Arizona?" Mouser said -- but now coaches can get more than a tan.
They're finding quarterbacks who are more ready for the college game. Slovis and Purdy were named freshman of the year in the Pac-12 and Big 12, respectively. Rattler earned co-Big 12 newcomer of the year honors this fall and was a first-team All-Big 12 selection.
"When you look at the number of overall players that come out [of Arizona], it doesn't totally make sense," Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley said. "But you've seen a run of some really talented guys. When you get that matched up, some talented young guys that want to work and a lot of good coaches in the area, that's going to be the recipe."
Arizona quarterbacks are also willing to leave. Chubba Purdy, ESPN's No. 5 pocket passer in the 2020 class, plays for Dillingham at FSU. He's not the only Arizona quarterback in the state. Parker Navarro is a reserve at UCF. Plummer started Purdue's final three games.
"In Arizona, there's a ton of people from the Midwest: Michigan people, Ohio people, Illinois people," Mouser said. "From a recruiting standpoint, I felt like there were a lot of kids there that had Midwest ties that didn't grow up Arizona and ASU fans that we could get to come back."
After landing Shough, Oregon went back to Arizona for Thompson, ESPN's No. 65 overall prospect in the 2021 class. Two of Cal's past three quarterback recruits are from Arizona: Millner and Spencer Brasch.
USC in September landed a commitment from 2022 quarterback Devin Brown, who, like Slovis, is a three-star prospect. Brown hails from Queen Creek, a far Southeast suburb of Phoenix.
"A lot of the Arizona guys aren't scared of competition and aren't scared to go somewhere else and experience good things and get out there and play," said Shough, who initially committed to North Carolina before signing with Oregon. "That's my mindset, too. It doesn't matter where I go, I just want to get the opportunity to play."
Both Shough and Brock Purdy get that opportunity Saturday, in their home state, in a game they grew up watching. When the bowl matchup was announced, Mouser immediately FaceTimed Purdy.
"Can you believe we're going back to Arizona for the Fiesta Bowl?" he said.
"Honestly, I can't," Purdy replied.
The way things are trending, though, Arizona quarterbacks will continue to occupy college football's biggest stages.
"The spark that Arizona's got with the quarterbacks has been pretty unique and it's special," Purdy said. "There's a really great sense of competitiveness within the quarterback family in Arizona. Everyone's always competing to get better, to go out on Friday nights and kill it and then get offers. Now we're in that spotlight and the stage of playing on Monday Night Football and in conference championships. I think the nation is finally seeing that.
"I know there's going to continue to be a great line of quarterbacks to come as well."