The college football schedule finally becomes complete when the Pac-12 begins play Saturday, bright and early.
USC and Arizona State will kick off shortly after 9 a.m. PT, an odd start to a very unusual Pac-12 season. The Pac-12 is the 10th and final FBS conference to begin play, as it tries to cram in seven games in seven weeks. But the Pac-12 is playing, which looked extremely unlikely for most of the summer and early fall, and that is reason to celebrate.
"We are grateful to be playing football, and we will never complain," said Washington first-year coach Jimmy Lake. "We know how quickly this game can be snatched away from us. It was a short time ago, we didn't think we were playing any football in 2020.
"You just let us know when to play, where to go, and we'll be there."
Despite the late start and the condensed schedule, the Pac-12 features some unique and interesting storylines. I spoke with coaches and analysts about some of the key subplots around the conference.
Is Oregon still the favorite after opt-outs?
There's clear momentum at Oregon after Pac-12 and Rose Bowl championships last year, coupled with decorated recruiting classes in 2019 (No. 6 in ESPN's rankings), 2020 (No. 13) and 2021 so far (currently the No. 3 class). Even with quarterback Justin Herbert off to the NFL, Oregon looked like the clear-cut favorite to repeat as Pac-12 champion.
The Ducks are still picked to win the league, but only as a slight favorite over USC. Opt-outs hit Oregon hard, as the Ducks lost left tackle Penei Sewell, the 2019 Outland Trophy winner, as well as defensive back Jevon Holland, another likely first-round NFL pick, and productive defensive back Thomas Graham Jr. Although Sewell's departure really stings a line that lost the other four starters, there's confidence that the group won't slip too far. Offensive line is a priority position for head coach Mario Cristobal, and Oregon has some talented replacements like Alex Forsyth, Steven Jones and Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu.
"When you lose the best left tackle in football, that's difficult, but with Mario and [offensive line coach] Alex Mirabal, that's not the position I worry about most," said former Oregon offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz, who hosts on Sirius XM's Pac-12 channel. "Oregon's defensive backs were the best in the country this season [before the opt-outs]. Everybody had them ranked No. 1."
The losses in the secondary, as well as departures like top linebacker Troy Dye, provide a good gauge of Oregon's improved recruiting efforts. Oregon's top three recruits in 2019 are defenders, as are its top four prospects in 2020, including Sewell's brother, Noah, ESPN's No. 3 inside linebacker prospect and No. 27 overall player.
"The opt-outs have allowed a different dynamic to happen," said a Pac-12 defensive assistant. "It forced some other kids to come out, like Mykael Wright. Dontae Manning, a true freshman, he's going to have to play."
The other big addition is offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead, perhaps the biggest assistant-coaching hire of last offseason. Moorhead upgraded a moribund Penn State offense into a record-setting one before spending two years as Mississippi State's head coach.
A similar boost with Oregon and first-year starting quarterback Tyler Shough could mean another Pac-12 title in Eugene.
The urgency around USC and Clay Helton
After an 8-5 record in 2019, USC coach Clay Helton wants to be an "attacking team" this season, and he hired new coordinators Todd Orlando (defense) and Sean Snyder (special teams) to complement Graham Harrell's offense. Orlando, who had success at Houston and initially with Texas before last season, is one of the nation's most interesting new coordinators.
His aggressive and creative scheme, and intense personality, are qualities that Helton thinks USC needs.
"Having gone against it as a coordinator multiple times, it's a pain in the butt," Helton told me. "Pressures coming from everywhere, from a variety of different people, whether it's linebackers, safeties, corners, and the coverage disguises on quarterbacks are really hard. It's hard to fluster [quarterback] Kedon Slovis, but there have been times during this training camp that because of the coverage hides, you get fooled. Also, I love T.O.'s personality and what he brings to the table.
"An attitude, a mindset and a scheme that is different than what you saw last year."
Helton thinks Orlando's system especially will benefit the middle of USC's defense: inside linebacker Palaie Gaoteote IV and safeties Talanoa Hufanga and Isaiah Pola-Mao. Orlando has coached Gaoteote "excessively hard" in practice, and Helton expects the junior to be a dynamic run-stopper.
The question is how much Orlando's creativity and aggression will help a defense with talent, but one that finished 71st nationally or worse in most major categories last year.
"He runs a 4-2-5, 3-3-5, all kinds of stuff," said a Pac-12 offensive coordinator. "That's usually feast or famine, though. It's good or you get gashed."
Added another coordinator: "Sometimes they don't fit the gaps and stuff like that, but it can cause problems, too."
USC has high expectations for a pass offense that ranked sixth nationally last year and returns Slovis and wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyler Vaughns and Drake London. Harrell has told Helton, "You're going to love going from Year 1 to Year 2 in this system." But Helton also recognizes the need to run the ball better.
The USC staff studied LSU and Alabama, teams that, like the Trojans, thrived in the pass game last season but also averaged more than 165 rushing yards per game. USC averaged only 118.2, ranking 119th.
"With the running backs and the offense line that we have, that's our next point of emphasis," Helton said. "When you see teams that are dropping eight and they refuse to rush, you can lean on that running game and be able to produce."
Helton's future adds to the urgency at USC. After surviving 2019, Helton normally would be on the hottest of seats. But the shortened schedule and financial challenges make any coaching change difficult. Plus, USC is recruiting better, and the early returns on overdue program upgrades (on-field staff, recruiting staff) are positive.
But there's pressure to deliver. USC is No. 10 in ESPN's FPI, which favors the Trojans in all six regular-season games, five by 82% or more.
"The wheels would have to fall off at USC," an industry source said. "[Athletic director Mike] Bohn really likes Clay. He wants to give Clay a shot."
Cal and Arizona State are division challengers
Oregon and USC both are overwhelming division favorites in the Pac-12's preseason poll. But both also could be pushed by Cal and Arizona State, two ascending programs with returning quarterbacks (Chase Garbers, Jayden Daniels) and strong finishes to last season.
Since 2018, Cal ranks among the Pac-12's top three defenses in most key categories. Coach Justin Wilcox has recruited and developed well, and Cal returns a solid core: All-Pac-12 cornerback Camryn Bynum, who opted back in after initially declaring for the NFL draft; safety Elijah Hicks (30 career starts); veteran linebackers Cameron Goode and Kuony Deng, and others. Cal will miss tackling machine Evan Weaver at linebacker and NFL draft picks Ashtyn Davis and Jaylinn Hawkins at safety, but its defense should remain very strong.
The bigger unknowns are on offense. New coordinator Bill Musgrave, back in college ball for the first time since 2002, takes over a unit featuring Garbers, a veteran line and a good group of running backs, led by Christopher Brown Jr. but also featuring Marcel Dancy and Wisconsin transfer Bradrick Shaw. Wilcox expects the wide receivers, who have underperformed during his tenure, to take the biggest step under Musgrave.
"It will be significant," Wilcox said of the scheme change. "Formations, personnel groupings, huddle/no huddle. You'll see more traditional sets, we'll have packages for people. Everybody groups the spread and the pro style together, but there's so many nuances. You see the pro-style stuff and formations and groupings, and things like that, and also he's got some spread elements in there. It's been really fun to watch."
Garbers doesn't receive as much attention as other Pac-12 quarterbacks, but with a 14-3 touchdown-to-interception rate in 2019, he's critical to Cal's success.
"When Chase Garbers started and finished games last year, they were 7-0," Schwartz said. "They have issues with explosive plays on offense, but I don't know why people are sleeping on Cal. They get all their tough games at home."
Cal hosts Washington, Stanford and Oregon, the only North Division team it has yet to beat under Wilcox. The Bears also visit Arizona State, the primary challenger to USC in the South.
The Sun Devils have momentum with Daniels, who showed incredible poise as a true freshman -- 17 touchdowns, only two interceptions, 8.9 yards per attempt -- and will play behind a much more experienced offensive line featuring graduate transfers Kellen Diesch (Texas A&M) and Henry Hattis (Stanford). New coordinator Zak Hill takes over a unit that also features wide receiver Frank Darby (19.9 yards per catch, eight touchdowns in 2019) but is seeking more explosive plays.
"We did not play Jayden last year," said Helton, referring to USC's win over an ASU team missing Daniels because of injury. "We watched Jayden against Oregon and the job he did to beat Oregon at home; he's a dynamic quarterback. Being a quarterback coach by trade, I'm looking forward to that matchup [Daniels and Slovis]. I think they're two of the best in the country."
ASU's defense likely will have more NFL markings. Marvin Lewis becomes co-defensive coordinator alongside former NFL player Antonio Pierce, and with head coach Herm Edwards overseeing the operation. A strong start is especially important for the Sun Devils, as a tiebreaker edge on USC is magnified during the short season.
"I'm expecting a shootout," said Rick Neuheisel, CBS and Sirius XM analyst and former coach at UCLA, Washington and Colorado. "I'm expecting two offenses to kind of go, defenses to be a little slow. I think it's been that way across the country. I would lean SC as the favorite but wouldn't be shocked if Arizona State knocks them off."
Don't forget about Stanford, Washington and Utah
From 2015 to 2018, these three teams had the highest winning percentages in the league, and last year Utah won its first South Division title. But for various reasons -- Stanford's step back in 2018, Washington's coaching and personnel transition, Utah's poor finish and defensive overhaul -- there's not much buzz around the Cardinal, Huskies or Utes.
Stanford could return to relevancy if gifted quarterback Davis Mills meets lofty expectations and the running back group, led by Austin Jones and Nathaniel Peat, stays healthy and produces. Pac-12 coaches like wide receiver Michael Wilson's potential as Mills' top target.
"You can never underestimate them," a Pac-12 defensive assistant said. "They're going to have a sharp plan, they're going to know what they're doing, and they're going to be who they are."
Stanford's defense must recapture its pre-2018 form, which will be tough without star cornerback Paulson Adebo and top pass rusher Casey Toohill. Coordinator Lance Anderson is seeking "more disruptive plays" and likes the potential at inside linebacker with Curtis Robinson and Levani Damuni.
Defense remains the focal point for Lake, who has mass-produced NFL defensive backs and soon will boast more with cornerback Elijah Molden leading the secondary. The front seven is a bit iffy after lineman Levi Onwuzurike and edge rusher Joe Tryon both opted out. But the big unknowns in Montlake are on offense, from new coordinator John Donovan, a puzzling hire to many, to a quarterback group that seemed to provide little clarity during camp.
"I think everybody's dying to see what Coach Donovan does," Neuheisel said. "That was a strange choice."
Utah lost six defenders to the NFL draft, as well as workhorse running back Zack Moss. The Utes played their worst two games of last season in the Pac-12 title game and the Alamo Bowl. Transfers Jake Bentley (South Carolina) and Cameron Rising (Texas) are vying for the starting quarterback spot.
There's a lot of mystery around Utah, but a team that is 55-25 since 2014 should never be overlooked.
"Kyle Whittingham does such a good job, especially building teams from inside-out," Neuheisel said. "They will no doubt have a running game, they will no doubt be able to stop the run. [Offensive coordinator] Andy Ludwig has been Kyle's security blanket. It will probably be a conservative deal, and they'll find ways to win with field position, ball control and such."
New faces in a short, strange season
New coaches are a theme throughout the Pac-12 in 2020. Although there are only two new head coaches in Washington State's Nick Rolovich and Colorado's Karl Dorrell, only four teams -- Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA and Utah -- return the same offensive and defensive coordinators.
"We do the history from where they've been at Washington and Oregon and Washington State," Wilcox said. "This season, it's just like no other, whether it's the circumstances, the new playcallers, the time of the game, it's all going to be different."
Wilcox noted that Pac-12 teams had "different offseasons, depending on where you were geographically." Some teams faced strict limitations on gatherings and activities, while others could do more. The defensive struggles around college football could impact the Pac-12, although Pac-12 players and coaches also have had more time to monitor other leagues.
"As always, even in this abnormal year, if you can play solid defense, that's going to keep you in the games," Lake said. "Out here in the Pac-12, there are a handful of defenses that are returning a lot of starters with really good schemes. We're going to play some defense out West."
A Pac-12 coordinator recently described what's coming as "a 100-meter sprint, definitely not a 400." So, which teams are best equipped to start fast and finish faster? The race could be absolutely wild out West.
"It's maybe the strangest of the Power 5 leagues," Neuheisel said. "There's probably eight teams out of 12 that could win. It's really bizarro world."