What follows is not a traditional hot seat list. College football will have a coaching carousel this year. Jay Hopson's departure from Southern Miss four days after a season-opening loss ensures there will be at least one change this cycle. Other resignations, retirements, job-hops or firings will surely follow.
But the carousel will be limited, perhaps dramatically, by the coronavirus pandemic. College athletic departments are facing eight- and possibly nine-figure budget deficits. Some conferences with coaches on thin ice (hello, Pac-12) might not kick off their seasons until after the typical firing/hiring period in December. Schedules have been modified and reduced, changing the normal criteria for evaluating embattled coaches.
Coaching agents are using terms like "hall pass" and "mulligan" to describe the 2020-21 coaching cycle. Does it mean coaches should relax? Probably not. I spoke to industry insiders about how the pandemic will affect the carousel, the trends to watch and how the job market could unfold.
Why hot-seat coaches get a reprieve
Even before the pandemic, the 2020-21 coaching carousel figured to be somewhat sparse. Starting with Florida State and continuing in the state of Mississippi, several Power 5 programs not expected to make changes last year pulled the plug on their coaches.
The Big 12, Big Ten and ACC all seemed unlikely to have any firings after the 2020 season. Although the Pac-12 and SEC both projected to be more turbulent, coaches such as USC's Clay Helton, Auburn's Gus Malzahn, South Carolina's Will Muschamp and Arizona's Kevin Sumlin still have their employers on the hook for millions of dollars. The financial fallout from the pandemic makes jettisoning those coaches even tougher.
"It was a really small year to begin with," an industry source said, "and when you couple that with COVID financial consequences, it's going to be that much smaller."
A coaching agent explained the financial implications by walking me through some pandemic carousel math (not my strongest subject). First, he said to remove the first number of the total of coaching changes. Last year's total, 24, suddenly becomes four. Then, add a "1" to what every coach is owed on his contract, so $6 million essentially becomes $16 million.
"If you're at a place that has cut sports, how can you go through and make a move?" the agent said.
While the pandemic could impact how future coaching contracts are structured, most of the current agreements strongly favor the coaches. The coaches who would feel the heat in a normal year -- Helton, Muschamp, Malzahn, Sumlin, NC State's Dave Doeren, Vanderbilt's Derek Mason, UCLA's Chip Kelly -- are signed through the 2023 season or beyond, and, if dismissed, would be owed guarantees ranging from the high seven figures to low eight figures.
Hopson, on the other hand, had only two years left on a deal that paid him $500,000 annually, the lowest salary in Conference USA. While Group of 5 schools pay their coaches less, they're feeling the financial squeeze even more. Normally, Tulsa's Philip Montgomery would be on the hottest of seats after going 9-27 the past three seasons. But Tulsa has no money.
"The buyout will drive everything," an industry source said. "You may pay a million or two to get rid of a coach, but not $9-10 million."
The financial challenge is only part of the equation in this year's carousel. Teams are playing truncated schedules made up entirely or mostly of league games. Postponements are already happening and cancellations are possible. The bowl situation is blurry, and the normal benchmarks for reaching the postseason won't apply.
"Given the obvious financial ramifications, athletic directors have to think about how they're going to evaluate coaches now, because the threshold is not 6-6 anymore," said Glenn Sugiyama, managing partner and global sports practice leader for DHR International, who recently led coaching searches at Florida State, Michigan State and other FBS programs. "You're only playing 10 games sometimes, nine games. Does bowl eligibility save your job when it might not even be a .500 record? What's the standard for success?
"That's the difference, the money piece and the standard for success. How are people being judged?"
The evaluations also go beyond win-loss record. Positive COVID-19 tests and contact-tracing restrictions already have done a number on rosters. Coaches might lose entire position groups days before games. Some teams have gone through weeks of padded practices, while others haven't even started hitting.
"If South Carolina goes 4-6 but in three of their losses, they lost two linemen and a receiver and the backup quarterback for COVID, how do you judge that?" an industry source said. "It's a hall-pass kind of year, to be honest."
The postponement of fall seasons in the Pac-12, Big Ten and other leagues seemingly provides an extra layer of protection. If the Pac-12 doesn't kick off until early January, would USC, Arizona or UCLA even consider making changes in March or April, after recruiting is complete?
In retaining Helton, USC increased resources for staff changes, which included new defensive coordinator Todd Orlando, as well as other areas of the program needing a jolt. After a subpar 2020 class, USC sits at No. 10 in ESPN's class rankings for 2021 with seven ESPN 300 commitments, including two quarterbacks.
Most industry sources expect Helton back for the fall 2021 season -- "unless he loses every game and it's ugly," a source said.
What will get the carousel going
The upcoming coaching carousel won't be as robust as normal, but there will be moves. There always are.
Hopson's departure underscores just how wacky and volatile this business can be. The most recent truly light cycle took place after the 2014 season, when only 15 FBS changes occurred (seven in the Power 5). Every year since has featured more than 20 changes.
What factors will get the carousel moving despite the pandemic? Start with retirement. Many industry sources expect a run on retirements after what has been a uniquely challenging year.
"Retirements are a huge piece," a source said.
Despite the recent trend of hiring older, big-name coaches from outside the college sidelines -- Arizona State's Herm Edwards, North Carolina's Mack Brown, Kansas' Les Miles -- other veteran coaches could be inclined to step aside.
"It was a really small year to begin with, and when you couple that with COVID financial consequences, it's going to be that much smaller." An industry source
Ohio's Frank Solich turned 75 last week. Middle Tennessee's Rick Stockstill turns 63 in December and had an inauspicious start to his 15th season (a 42-0 loss to Army that featured horrific clock management before halftime). Iowa's Kirk Ferentz, whose program was investigated for allegations of racial bias by former players this summer, turned 65 last month. Marshall's Doc Holliday is 63 and has a contract that runs through only the 2021 season.
Even coaches who don't look like they're nearing the end, such as Duke's David Cutcliffe (turns 66 this week) and TCU's Gary Patterson (60), might be worth monitoring.
"Guys are going to be like, 'Why am I doing this?'" a coaching agent said. "There's a lot of nonfootball stuff going on, more than most years."
Added another industry insider: "A number of people are going to say, 'I didn't sign up for this. I don't want to do this anymore,' between coronavirus, social justice and player empowerment."
Although coaches might receive a bit less blowback about their records this season, they will be judged on how they manage other areas, some of which are unique to 2020.
"What could still spark some of these decisions are off-the-field transgressions, anything in the [termination]-for-cause department, whether it's COVID-related, domestic violence-related, race-related," an industry source said. "Those types of situations are more tenuous than they've ever been. There's a lot more on the line."
Another source of carousel movement could be the NFL, which plucked Baylor's Matt Rhule in the past cycle. Coaches who could be on the NFL radar include Oklahoma's Lincoln Riley, Florida's Dan Mullen and Penn State's James Franklin.
"It will certainly not surprise me if some guys make a run on some NFL jobs this year, certainly head-coaching positions but also high-profile assistants," a coaching agent said. "This is the time to roll. [College football is] just getting too unstable."
Coaching carousel storylines to watch
Time to dust off the crystal ball and project how an unusual coaching carousel will unfold.
Inevitable coaching changes: Think about Willie Taggart at Florida State in 2019, Bobby Petrino at Louisville in 2018 or Butch Jones at Tennessee in 2017. Everyone knew how the story would end. The only question was when the school would find the money to make the change. The answer in all three cases came quickly.
Would NC State make a change this fall with Doeren, under contract through the 2023 season with a $3.25 million annual salary? The Wolfpack went 4-8 last fall after consecutive nine-win seasons that felt a bit unsatisfying given the talent on the roster. Athletic director Boo Corrigan didn't hire Doeren. NC State was picked 11th in the ACC preseason poll.
"Whether it's this year or next year, it's kind of inevitable," an industry source said. "I don't think he has many legs to stand on left in Raleigh."
Mason also might fit into this category. Although he has done positive things with the program, he's 10-38 in SEC play with one league win in two of the past three seasons. A league-only schedule with division crossovers against LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Mississippi State doesn't bode well for Mason, who enters his seventh season. Athletic director Candice Storey Lee didn't hire Mason, but served as Vanderbilt's football administrator when he arrived. Vanderbilt also is reeling financially after Malcolm Turner's brief but bumpy tenure as AD. Bottom line: Mason's situation is worth watching.
Head coaches to watch: Another potential development is whether certain schools will be aggressive about entering the market in what figures to be a light carousel. Cincinnati's Luke Fickell, Louisiana's Billy Napier (who just led a huge upset over Iowa State), UCF's Josh Heupel, Boise State's Bryan Harsin and Army's Jeff Monken are just some of the on-the-rise coaches at the Group of 5 level. Fickell, who recently finalized a new contract at Cincinnati that pays him $3.4 million annually, might be too expensive in a year like this, but any Power 5 school with a coaching vacancy should give him a call.
Coordinator candidates: There's also an appealing group of coordinator candidates who might be even more desirable in a market in which schools lack limitless resources. Is this the year some Power 5 school gets Tony Elliott to leave his post as Clemson's offensive coordinator? Elliott, who once again will call plays for quarterback Trevor Lawrence, headlines a coordinator group that also includes Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables, USC offensive coordinator Graham Harrell, Florida defensive coordinator Todd Grantham and Oklahoma defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, among others.
More coaches have moved between Power 5 jobs in recent years. If an upper-level SEC job comes open, such as Auburn, a coach like Oregon's Mario Cristobal could be targeted. Although Cristobal has Oregon rolling on the field and in recruiting, the SEC offers unmatched resources and exposure, plus the chance to face his former boss Nick Saban.
"If it's going to be a really tight market, does somebody move because of that?" an industry source said. "This would be the tightest market of all markets, so does a Vandy or does another school say, 'This is the year to do it? Because if we open, we're the premier school.'"
Predicting how the pandemic carousel unfolds is nearly impossible, but a more vibrant market awaits in 2021.
"Next year, it's going to be a massive carousel," an industry source said, "if we can get back to normal."