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Most important 2020 game for each Top 25 college football team

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Let's face it: At this point, amid the COVID-19 crisis, the first game is every team's most important game of the season. Because that means we're playing football. But for this exercise, let's break it down and picture a season that goes on as it was regularly scheduled. If we can be so fortunate, here's every Top 25 team's most important game.


1. Clemson Tigers

Like last season, Clemson's path to an ACC title isn't particularly difficult, but the biggest challenge should come early with a home date against Louisville. The Cardinals revived the program in coach Scott Satterfield's first season in 2019, and while the final score wasn't all that close, they did give Clemson one of its tougher games. With a tumultuous offseason around the country, September could certainly come with a few upsets, so it might be to Louisville's advantage to get the Tigers in Week 2, before Dabo Swinney & Co. really get rolling. -- David M. Hale

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

Bill Connelly points out some of the stats below on why the Penn State game is so important for the Nittany Lions. It also, obviously, will be important for Ohio State, but just to have something different here, we'll go with the Oregon game for the Buckeyes. The Ducks are going to have a really good, young defense as well as a new offensive coordinator in Joe Moorhead, who was the Penn State offensive coordinator from 2016 to 2017 and has some familiarity with Ohio State. To have that game as the second one of the season will be a good test for Ohio State, and it will be crucial for the Buckeyes to get a win if they want to get back in the College Football Playoff. -- Tom VanHaaren

3. Alabama Crimson Tide

The USC game is going to be fun, and ending the regular season with the Iron Bowl is never one to overlook, but the pivotal game for the Crimson Tide comes in Week 3 against Georgia. That'll be the tone-setter for the entire season. Against the class of the East and one of the best defenses in college football, Alabama's offense will have to prove itself without star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Mac Jones played well last season when Tagovailoa went down, but now the pressure will be on his shoulders in what very well may be a sink-or-swim moment. -- Alex Scarborough

4. Georgia Bulldogs

The Alabama game is huge, but the schedule sets up as such that a loss on the road early in the season won't make or break the Bulldogs. As usual, the game that will is Florida. The Gators have been building since coach Dan Mullen's arrival, and the emergence of quarterback Kyle Trask gives them a real chance of contending in the East. If Georgia doesn't want to let the division flip this season and possibly in the long term, then extending the win streak to four games is a must. -- Scarborough

5. Penn State Nittany Lions

Let's put it this way: Preseason polls are going to place PSU between about fourth and sixth. They're going to place Ohio State between first and third. Over the past three years, PSU is 0-3 against Ohio State -- with two of three losses by one point -- and 29-5 against everyone else. Ohio State is scheduled to visit Happy Valley on Oct. 24. Pretty easy dots to connect there. -- Bill Connelly

6. Oregon Ducks

For the sake of being different here, I'm going to say that Oregon's most important game in 2020 is going to be against USC, and not Ohio State. The Ohio State game is clearly going to be a huge indicator of how the Ducks' season is going to go, because if they win it, there's not a more difficult game left on their schedule. USC becomes the next-biggest game, and it could also end up becoming even more meaningful if the Trojans are undefeated and/or fighting for a spot in the Pac-12 title game. -- Harry Lyles Jr.

7. Florida Gators

The Gators have a few tough games on the front end of their schedule with a trip to Tennessee on Sept. 26 and a home game against LSU two weeks later. But the biggest game on the schedule has to be Georgia on Oct. 31. If Florida is going to reclaim its spot atop the SEC East, it has to find a way to unseat Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs. Georgia has won three straight in the series and six of the past nine -- its longest sustained success against its rivals since the 1980s. Dan Mullen can post as many 10-win seasons as he wants, but if he doesn't find a way to beat Georgia, and fast, Florida fans are going to start to run out of patience. -- Andrea Adelson

8. LSU Tigers

Clear your schedules for Nov. 7 if you haven't already, because the Alabama Crimson Tide are headed to Baton Rouge. LSU won this game last season 46-41, and it should be another fun one in 2020. This game is going to look different, with both teams having a combined 22 players selected in the 2020 NFL draft. But make no mistake about it, there's plenty more NFL talent on the field for both teams. It's very likely that the winner of this one will represent the SEC West in the conference title game. -- Lyles Jr.

9. Oklahoma Sooners

The Sooners look like prohibitive favorites in every game, except for the big one against Texas on Oct. 10, which currently is almost a toss-up (FPI gives OU a 51.6% chance). OU is 4-1 in its past five Red River games, but the Longhorns put up a fight; the Sooners only won by an average of 38-33. A win fast-tracks the Sooners' hopes of a fifth College Football Playoff appearance in six seasons. -- Dave Wilson

10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The Irish lost to Georgia last season by six points, which ended up being one of two losses on the season. If Notre Dame wants to show it's in the national conversation, the team is going to need to do it against Clemson at home on Nov. 7. It's late in the season, and depending on how the rest of the schedule prior to that game plays out, it could have big ramifications for both Notre Dame and Clemson. -- VanHaaren

11. Texas A&M Aggies

Jimbo Fisher faced a brutal schedule in his first two years at A&M, and a 17-9 start basically met expectations. But the runway is greased this year and anything short of a 6-0 start would be a disappointment. The key is a trip to Auburn on Oct. 17. Win and the Aggies have a shot to be 10-0 going to Alabama. Lose (and FPI gives A&M only a 29.5% chance to win) and a breakthrough looks tough with the final two games against Bama and LSU. -- Wilson

12. Oklahoma State Cowboys

The Oct. 3 matchup with TCU will tell us a lot about where the Cowboys are headed. Mike Gundy is 5-3 against Gary Patterson since the Frogs returned to the Big 12 in 2012, but OSU's win last season stopped a two-game losing streak. Win again, and the Cowboys could very well be 6-0 going into Bedlam in Norman on Oct. 24, where they have the offensive firepower for a classic Big 12 shootout. -- Wilson

13. Wisconsin Badgers

The Badgers' season will be defined by a trio of games. They play Michigan in Ann Arbor, Notre Dame at Lambeau Field and Minnesota at home in consecutive weeks midseason. Go 3-0, and you're a contender, but a pretty good team could go 0-3. That the Michigan game comes first could technically make it the most important by default, but the Minnesota game could decide the division title. Paul Bunyan's Axe is a heck of a tiebreaker. The Minnesota game gets the nod. -- Connelly

14. Auburn Tigers

It's weird seeing Georgia in the middle of the Auburn schedule and not in its usual spot in mid-November, but things change. And partly because of that, this feels like a pivotal game for the Tigers because the first portion of the season sets up well with Alcorn State, UNC, Ole Miss, Southern Miss and Kentucky. Beat Georgia and you're looking at a great season and coach Gus Malzahn inching off the hot seat. Lose and the whole outlook changes. Malzahn is suddenly in trouble and you're staring down a second half of the season with Texas A&M, LSU and Alabama that looks downright scary. -- Scarborough

15. Michigan Wolverines

There is no other answer here other than the Ohio State game. Jim Harbaugh is 0-5 against the Buckeyes, and Michigan has been outscored 118-66 the past two games in this rivalry. There is no way around it other than saying Harbaugh needs a win in this game. A loss would be devastating, but a win could help push the program forward and get that conversation off Harbaugh's back. -- VanHaaren

16. Minnesota Golden Gophers

Minnesota's two losses last season were to Iowa and Wisconsin, which kept the Gophers from representing the West Division in the Big Ten championship game. The Gophers are looking to take that next step after an 11-win season, so those two games are the biggest on the schedule. If we have to pick one, it seems like the Wisconsin game is going to be the bigger of the two. The Badgers made it to the conference championship game last season, and this game is at Wisconsin. Minnesota needs to bring home the axe if it wants a shot at a conference title. -- VanHaaren

17. Cincinnati Bearcats

The Bearcats have a tough conference stretch with SMU, Memphis and Houston all in a row. Those three games will be important, but the game against UCF on Nov. 21 seems like it could have major implications within the conference. The AAC has done away with its divisions, so we could see Cincinnati and UCF both in the conference championship game if they're the two top teams in the conference. A win in this game could be an important factor into making it into the top two within the conference. -- VanHaaren

18. Iowa State Cyclones

There are plenty of potential road blocks to Iowa State's emergence in 2020, starting with rival Iowa in Week 2 and including Big 12 champ Oklahoma for homecoming on Oct. 17. But the Nov. 21 trip to Texas is the one that really stands out because it could easily be the win that puts the Cyclones into the conference title game -- but Iowa State's only win in Austin came back in 2010. -- Hale

19. Boise State Broncos

BSU plays host to Florida State in Week 3, which is always going to be a huge game (and a massive statement about what Boise State has become). But we're going to go with the game before it. On Sept. 12, the Broncos travel to Colorado Springs to take on an Air Force team that finished last season playing maybe the best ball in the conference. BSU can lose to Florida State and still be well positioned to reach a New Year's Six bowl. If Boise State can't beat Air Force, however, the team might not even control its destiny in the Mountain West. -- Connelly

20. Iowa Hawkeyes

Iowa has beaten Minnesota five times in a row and wrecked the Gophers' unbeaten run last November in Iowa City. Not only must the Hawkeyes head north this time to fend off a revenge attempt, but they must do it on a Friday night in Week 3, right after the rivalry game against Iowa State. The Hawkeyes could still be breaking in a new quarterback and figuring out what they've got at that time. The Big Ten West race could be fascinating to follow, but the loser of this one is going to be playing from behind the rest of the fall. -- Connelly

21. USC Trojans

The Trojans are going to let us know how good they are right off the bat in a Sept. 5 clash against Alabama. There's not a tougher game on the schedule, and if they're able to beat the Crimson Tide, they can beat anybody who is left. Alabama is certainly going to be a different-looking team without Tua Tagovailoa, but Mac Jones played well in 2019. If the Trojans can catch a little rust on Alabama, it could be a nice tone-setter for the season. -- Lyles Jr.

22. North Carolina Tar Heels

If the Tar Heels are going to be a "dark horse" championship contender, they need to get past their first two opponents -- at UCF and Auburn. The game with the most intrigue between the two, though, is Auburn. A win over the Tigers gives them a much-needed "quality" Top 25 win, especially since their ACC schedule features zero ranked teams. Both North Carolina and the ACC need wins like this to not only try and gain national relevance but to also boost the conference. -- Adelson

23. Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns play two of last season's playoff teams (LSU and Oklahoma) in the first five weeks. But the trip to Baton Rouge on Sept. 12 will dial up the hype (and maybe the heat, after last year's weird locker room drama. Sam Ehlinger will be ready after throwing for 401 yards and running for 60 more as UT gave LSU a commendable fight in what ended up being a record-breaking season for the Tigers. -- Wilson

24. Appalachian State Mountaineers

It'd be easy to circle the trip to Wisconsin as the biggest game on App State's schedule, and certainly a win there would make a statement about the Mountaineers' place among New Year's Six contenders. But before they get Wisconsin, they've got to get past Wake Forest in a potential trap game against a school just an hour down the road. App State made waves last season by going 2-0 against the Power 5. If that happens again in 2020, there might be a real chorus gathering to push a potentially undefeated Mountaineers team for a playoff bid. -- Hale

25. Baylor Bears

Jump right in with the opener of the Dave Aranda era at a neutral site (Houston's NRG Stadium) on a prime Sunday spot on Sept. 6 against Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss. The Bears get Kansas, Incarnate Word and Louisiana Tech at home before playing five of their next seven on the road, including trips to Texas and Oklahoma. FPI predicts Baylor with five to six wins. Bowl hopes might hinge on this one. -- Wilson