College football nearly made it to October without a coaching change, but Rutgers had seen enough after its latest blowout loss.
Rutgers on Sunday fired coach Chris Ash, who went 8-32 at the school and ended with 14 consecutive Big Ten losses, the latest a 52-0 whipping Saturday at Michigan. Ash entered the season on the hot seat, and after the team's recent struggles -- outscored 112-16 since opening the season with a 27-point win over UMass -- his exit was inevitable.
More moves are likely in October, especially if certain coaches can't change troubling trajectories. Not surprisingly, the landscape looks different than it did before the season, when Auburn's Gus Malzahn was a prominent name on hot-seat lists, Florida State's Willie Taggart was, at best, a fringe hot-seat coach, and Tennessee's Jeremy Pruitt and Arkansas' Chad Morris among others appeared totally safe.
After no coaching changes a year ago, the SEC could be the epicenter for the hot seat in coming weeks. While Auburn is off to a very strong start under Malzahn, at least four other schools -- Tennessee, Arkansas, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt -- could consider changes, especially in what could be a light year for Power 5 firings.
The challenge here: to identify the coach in every Power 5 conference who is feeling the most heat entering October. I didn't include the Big 12, which has no coach in danger of being fired after four schools made changes last year, but there are realistic hot-seat candidates for the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Pac-12.
Here they are, along with some notes from Week 5.
SEC
Coach: Jeremy Pruitt, Tennessee
Record: 1-3 this season, 6-10 overall
Contract: Signed through 2023 season, $3.8 million annually plus bonuses
Upcoming: Georgia (Saturday), Mississippi State (Oct. 12), at Alabama (Oct. 19)
Despite a poor end to Pruitt's debut season -- Tennessee dropped its final two games by a combined score of 88-30 -- there was genuine optimism on Rocky Top for 2019. Tennessee had a favorable nonconference schedule and returned promising quarterback Jarrett Guarantano. Pruitt also was making gains in recruiting.
A 1-3 start has sent Tennessee into a tailspin and put Pruitt squarely on the hot seat. After the messy and embarrassing search that ended with Pruitt's hiring, the last thing Tennessee wants is another coaching transition. The possibility of athletic director Phillip Fulmer taking over as coach when the schedule eases up would be an especially bad look, given Fulmer's influence in Pruitt's hiring. According to industry sources, Fulmer wouldn't hesitate to coach again, as he remains bitter how he lost the gig in 2008. The 69-year-old also notices what's happening with UNC's Mack Brown (68) and Kansas' Les Miles (65).
"If that job opens, it's him assuming the chair," a source said. "I don't see him firing Jeremy and going to the market." Another industry source added: "There's no doubt Coach Fulmer wants to be back on the sideline."
A preferred path is getting Pruitt to Year 3, when he'd have to truly break through. If not, Fulmer could step in for a moderate period (two to three years) and hire a coach-in-waiting. None of this would look good or inspire much optimism outside of the Tennessee die-hards. But after the most dysfunctional coaching search in recent major college football, no one can be that shocked.
Other SEC hot-seat buzz: Arkansas doesn't want to make a change, and the team's near-upset of Texas A&M helped ease some of the sting from last week's inexcusable home loss to San Jose State. Still, Morris is just 4-13 at the school and 0-10 in SEC play. ... Vanderbilt's trip to Ole Miss next week is a significant hot-seat matchup, as Derek Mason and Matt Luke are both struggling. Ole Miss still needs a chancellor and an athletic director, so the timing of those hires could impact Luke (sooner wouldn't be better for him). New Vanderbilt AD Malcolm Turner didn't hire Mason, who has some good accomplishments (three straight wins over Tennessee) but no winning seasons. He really needed Saturday's win over Northern Illinois.
Big Ten
Coach: Lovie Smith, Illinois
Record: 2-2 this season, 11-29 overall (89-87 as NFL coach)
Contract: Signed through 2023 season, $4 million annual salary plus bonuses
Upcoming: at Minnesota (Saturday), Michigan (Oct. 12), Wisconsin (Oct. 19)
Ash occupied this spot until Sunday, so the Big Ten's hot-seat focus shifts to the other coach on all the preseason lists. Illinois gave Smith a two-year contract extension following the 2018 season, but it was more to project the image of continuity for recruiting, as it would cost Illinois only $1 million to fire Smith in 2022 or 2023.
Although Illinois would be on the hook for $4 million if it dismisses Smith this season, most industry sources expect a change if the Illini don't reach a bowl game. Illinois recently has made several major facilities investments to keep pace in an improving Big Ten West division. The results must now come for a program that hasn't made a bowl game since 2014. Illinois showed some early improvement behind quarterback Brandon Peters, a transfer from Michigan, but after consecutive home losses, this week's trip to Minnesota is critical. Smith is just 4-24 in Big Ten play despite being in the more navigable division.
Athletic director Josh Whitman boldly hired Smith in March 2016, just weeks into his own appointment. While skepticism about the hire has largely been validated, Whitman has built enough goodwill -- through fundraising success and other areas -- to lead another coaching transition. There would be some good candidates for the Illinois job, including Army coach Jeff Monken and Notre Dame offensive coordinator Chip Long.
Other Big Ten hot-seat buzz: Indiana's Tom Allen is expected back in 2020, although a bowl appearance would fully secure his position. The Hoosiers' annual heartbreak continued Saturday in a hard-fought loss at Michigan State.
Pac-12
Coach: Clay Helton, USC
Record: 3-2 this season, 35-19 overall
Contract: Signed through 2023 season, salary not disclosed
Upcoming: at Notre Dame (Oct. 12), Arizona (Oct. 19), at Colorado (Oct. 25)
Helton's situation is complicated. USC has played a brutal schedule, which continues in two weeks at Notre Dame. The Trojans also have lost two quarterbacks, including JT Daniels for the season. The team plays well at home, but there's an obvious sloppiness -- penalties, turnovers, untimely breakdowns -- that some believe is emblematic of the Helton era.
As I wrote last week, USC's immediate priority is hiring an athletic director to replace Lynn Swann. Who gets the job could be a good indicator of how things will go with Helton, and perhaps the presumptive favorite to replace him, Urban Meyer. Washington State athletic director Pat Chun was an executive associate AD at Ohio State when the school hired Meyer in 2011.
Despite Saturday's loss at Washington, USC remains in good position in the Pac-12 South. FPI favors the Trojans in their four remaining division games and in five of their final league contests. Would USC still fire Helton if the team wins the division? The school might need a guarantee from a perceived upgrade like Meyer or Penn State's James Franklin.
"It depends how soon they can get this AD thing done," an industry source said. "Outside of Urban, it's a risk." A risk that still might be worth taking, as USC alums clearly aren't happy.
ACC
Coach: Willie Taggart, Florida State
Record: 3-2 this season, 8-9 at FSU, 55-59 overall
Contract: Signed through 2023 season, $5 million annually plus bonuses
Upcoming: at Clemson (Oct. 12), at Wake Forest (Oct. 19), Syracuse (Oct. 26)
Things are cooling down in Tallahassee after Taggart led FSU to critical home wins over Louisville and NC State. Although fans continue to show their displeasure by not filling seats at Doak Campbell Stadium, the team is showing incremental progress behind Wisconsin transfer quarterback Alex Hornibrook.
Taggart's contract works very much in his favor, as does the fact Florida State lacks the resources to easily pay his guarantee. An industry source told me before the season, "They'd have to really implode. Their financial problems are bad." That still applies, and if FSU can simply reach six or seven wins, Taggart should be back in 2020.
But the upcoming stretch isn't easy, as FSU faces the ACC's two remaining unbeaten teams. The lack of excitement around the program is notable, as FSU drew only 46,530 against Louisville, its smallest home crowd since 1983, before a better turnout (60,351) against NC State.
"The administration is behind him, the fans are not," an industry source said. "[The administration] want to get it to the third year."
Other ACC hot-seat buzz: Consecutive home losses could spell trouble for Boston College's Steve Addazio, who hasn't capitalized on a favorable first-half schedule. Addazio will have a tough time reaching his standard seven wins, which could motivate athletic director Martin Jarmond to make a change. ... Virginia Tech's 45-10 loss to Duke on Friday -- its worst home defeat since 1974 -- could be a tipping point for Justin Fuente. Athletic director Whit Babcock hired Fuente and definitely isn't motivated to make a move, but the program's backslide in the past year and a half is undeniable.
Week 5 notes
Penn State coach James Franklin doesn't want to bring up Sean Clifford's predecessor every time he discusses the team's new starting quarterback. But Clifford absorbed a lot from Trace McSorley, the record-setting three-year starter who led PSU to a Big Ten title in 2016.
"Trace left a legacy of how to prepare and how to compete and how to work," Franklin told me late Friday. "Sean's wired very similar."
After McSorley, now with the Baltimore Ravens, visited PSU's hotel before its game at Maryland, Clifford delivered a McSorley-like performance. Clifford broke McSorley's team record with 287 first-half passing yards and finished with 398 yards -- third highest in team history and ahead of McSorley's top single-game mark -- in his first career start. The sophomore completed his first nine pass attempts, spread the ball to 11 different targets in the first half and finished with a career-high 31 passes.
He also led PSU with 54 rushing yards, including his first career score, an 8-yarder.
"He played pretty well early [in the season], but tonight, he was really sharp," Franklin told me. "He was very confident in the game plan, very confident in their coverages and their blitzes, being able to adjust our protections, and being able to get the ball out of his hands quickly and know where to go with the ball."
During PSU's open week, Franklin challenged the team to improve on third down. The offense had shown explosiveness on early downs but came to Maryland converting just 23.3% of its third-down attempts. Behind Clifford, PSU converted its first seven third-down chances and finished 9 of 13.
"He was very confident, poised and comfortable all night," Franklin said. "We have a lot of confidence in him, but it's one thing to have confidence, it's another thing to go on the road, sold-out game, canceled [classes], blackout. He really thrived in the environment."
Baylor's Matt Rhule always has been around teams that won with a complete brand of football. Although he coaches in the offense-fueled Big 12, he sees things shifting.
"Texas is a well-rounded team, TCU's a well-rounded team, Oklahoma, they're playing good defense right now," Rhule, who agreed to a contract extension through the 2027 season on Sunday, told me. "Everyone realizes that if you want to win at a high, high level, you have to have it in all three phases."
Baylor's holistic approach showed in Saturday's 23-21 win over Iowa State, which improved the Bears to 4-0. Although quarterback Charlie Brewer was solid (307 pass yards, three touchdowns), Baylor's defense blanked Iowa State for three quarters, and the Bears blocked a field goal attempt before halftime and won the game on freshman John Mayers' 38-yard field goal.
After alternating between three- and four-down defensive fronts, Baylor has committed to three-down alignment, which has allowed players such as linebacker Clay Johnston (37 tackles, 5.5 for loss, 2.5 sacks) and safety Chris Miller (20 tackles, 1.5 for loss) to thrive.
"Clay's a 4.58, 4.6 flat guy, so they're both fast, high-contact guys," Rhule said. "The way the defense is set up, trying to spill the ball always to the outside and not give up direct runs, they're strong enough that they can come downhill and play in the box, but they're so fast to run sideline to sideline."
Rhule had more concerns about Baylor's kicking game, filled with freshmen specialists. But the units have surpassed his expectations so far.
"The level of buy-in we have on special teams right now is amazing," he said.
A day after SMU secured its first 5-0 start since 1983, the Mustangs entered the AP poll for the first time since 1986.
"Our players have been fighting a long time for people to take notice and respect them," coach Sonny Dykes told me after coming in at No. 24. "It's significant for us. It's been small, baby steps, every year for the last 30 years. We felt like coming into the year, we were going to have a good football team. But there's so many moving parts, we didn't know how it would all fit together."
Dykes isn't kidding about moving parts. SMU has 65 first-year players on its roster, including 35 transfers and 11 graduate transfers. Quarterback Shane Buechele, a graduate transfer from Texas who didn't practice this spring, has thrived in Dykes' offense (1,385 pass yards, 10 touchdowns, 69.4% completions).
Other impact transfers including top tacklers Patrick Nelson (Illinois) and Richard McBryde, wide receiver Reggie Roberson Jr. (West Virginia), lineman Zach Abercrumbia (Rice), cornerback Brandon Stephens (UCLA) and tight end Kylen Granson (Rice). SMU's depth problems left Dykes no choice but to take so many transfers.
He's just relieved the roster has come together so well.
"There's been no entitlement, no feelings that coach doesn't believe in me," Dykes said. "We've been very careful to bring the right people in, good character guys, really unselfish people. You worry when you have so many new faces, but the guys have worked really hard. Our players have just rolled with it. and it's made everybody better.
"It's been a blast."