The coaching carousel is finally starting to spin, thanks to the league that undoubtedly will be at the epicenter of this year's cycle.
Tennessee's firing of Butch Jones on Sunday opened up a second primo vacancy in the SEC East division, as Florida parted ways with Jim McElwain two weeks earlier. There figures to be more action soon in the SEC West, as Arkansas' Bret Bielema and Texas A&M's Kevin Sumlin could be coaching their final games at their respective schools. So could Mississippi State's Dan Mullen, although under entirely different circumstances.
Nebraska's Mike Riley could be the next Power 5 coach to go, while the Big 12 and Pac-12 South continue to be spots to watch for possible changes.
Here's the latest around the coaching realm.
Who's next on Rocky Top?
Butch Jones' dismissal became a certainty several weeks ago, although I was told he had some lingering administrative support heading into the Missouri game. Nonetheless, Tennessee is back in the market for its fourth coach in the past decade. While there is no shortage of candidates, I continue to hear Dan Mullen's name as a primary target for the Vols. It will take a good opportunity to lure Mullen away from Mississippi State, but this seems like the year to move, especially to a place that, despite a decade of dysfunction, has a pretty high ceiling.
Other sitting Power 5 coaches like Virginia Tech's Justin Fuente and Iowa State's Matt Campbell will be brought up, but I don't expect either to move in this cycle. If Fuente leaves Virginia Tech, which soon will reward him with a bigger contract, it would be to get closer to his home state of Oklahoma.
Ohio State defensive coordinator Greg Schiano should get a look here. Schiano and Penn State offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead have long been viewed as the Power 5 coordinators most likely to move to Power 5 head-coaching gigs. If Tennessee goes the Group of 5 route, Memphis' Mike Norvell makes sense. He's already in the state and boasts a 16-6 record with the Tigers.
What's the latest in Florida's search?
There could be a twist here, or it might be a smokescreen. But after so much buzz last week about UCF's Scott Frost as the likely frontrunner at Florida, there has been a shift away from the second-year Knights coach. Part of that could be a major push made by Nebraska, which, according to multiple sources, is prepared to make a huge offer to bring Frost back home. Frost remains focused on UCF's season and its quest for an AAC title and possible New Year's Six bowl berth. But those around him are aware of Nebraska's efforts, which could be too much to pass up, even for a better job like Florida.
The name now making its way around the industry for Florida is former Oregon and NFL coach -- and current ESPN analyst -- Chip Kelly. A return to the college game is likely for Kelly, and while the SEC and its cutthroat recruiting scene might not fit him, his offense would immediately get Gator fans excited. I could really see Kelly at Florida, but we'll see where this one goes.
Mullen can't be written off here, either, given his ties to Florida and to Gators AD Scott Stricklin, who came from Mississippi State. But Stricklin also might want to avoid a hire that harms his previous employer and alma mater.
Another factor is the buyout. Frost's is $3 million, which is doable for a school that still will have to pay McElwain a sizable settlement, on top of money going to McElwain's predecessor, Will Muschamp, and whatever Florida has to pay its next coach.
If Frost goes to Florida, what will Nebraska do?
Iowa State's Campbell makes sense in many ways -- his Ohio roots should help Nebraska's rooting in the Big Ten footprint -- but he's far from a guarantee to leave Ames this year, especially because of a huge buyout ($9.4 million). I've also heard Campbell would only leave for a school where he felt he could compete for the national title. It's likelier he continues to build ISU and then jumps to, say, Notre Dame or Michigan in a few years if Brian Kelly or Jim Harbaugh went off to the NFL, rather than going to Lincoln.
McElwain might end up in Lincoln, although it's fair to wonder if he could handle the spotlight there. Wyoming's Craig Bohl, a former Nebraska player and assistant, and Washington State's Mike Leach, who worked for new Huskers AD Bill Moos until last month, both have been mentioned as options. But after the Riley situation, Nebraska likely has to go younger with this hire.
There are several intriguing Group of 5 possibilities besides Frost in Boise State's Bryan Harsin, who is 39-11 with the Broncos. Insiders bring up Bret Bielema, whose Big Ten success (three championships at Wisconsin) still resonates, despite his struggles at Arkansas. If Nebraska goes the coordinator route, Clemson's Brent Venables, a Kansas State alum who coached at K-State and Oklahoma, would be a good choice. Georgia's Mel Tucker, a Wisconsin alum and former Ohio State assistant, is worth a look.
What's next at Texas A&M?
Despite Texas A&M's easy win over New Mexico on Saturday, Sumlin likely will be out in a week or two. Don't be surprised if the school kicks the tires on TCU's Gary Patterson, Washington's Chris Petersen, Florida State's Jimbo Fisher and Clemson's Dabo Swinney (yes, you read that right).
Realistically, Patterson seems like the best option, as Texas A&M really wants a coach with Texas roots. The school could look at NFL candidates like former Broncos and Texans coach Gary Kubiak, a Houston native, or Texans defensive coordinator Mike Vrabel, who may have NFL head-coaching opportunities in this cycle. I've also been told Iowa State's Campbell would consider Texas A&M because of its financial and geographic resources.
Besides Florida and Tennessee, what's next in the SEC?
As others have noted, it's not unrealistic that half of the SEC coaching jobs turn over this season. Ole Miss, largely forgotten with all the other moves, still will conduct a full-scale search, as it waits possible additional penalties from the NCAA infractions committee. But things are very quiet in Oxford.
And then there's Arkansas, which industry insiders expect to open. The Razorbacks have struggled since late last season, and Bielema's buyout, while somewhat sizable (about $5.9 million if he's fired before Jan. 1), likely wouldn't stop a change. A factor here is whether athletic director Jeff Long, who hired Bielema in in what looked like a coup five years ago, also would be out.
Auburn's Gus Malzahn notched a possible tenure-turning win Saturday over No. 1 Georgia. Malzahn should be fine in the short term, especially if he knocks off Alabama in two weeks. But the athletic director situation on the Plains -- Jay Jacobs will step down June 1 -- is worth watching, especially with so many programs there in turmoil. A possible escape route for Malzahn is Arkansas, his home state.
Who else will be in the mix for SEC jobs?
Other than Mullen and Malzahn, other Power 5 coaches to watch include TCU's Patterson (possibly for Texas A&M), Florida State's Fisher (Texas A&M and Auburn could make a run) and Louisville's Bobby Petrino (Auburn finally?). Purdue's Jeff Brohm might gain some traction but I don't expect him to move so soon, especially with the Boilers struggling to make a bowl after a hot start.
Besides Frost, here are some other Group of 5 candidates for SEC openings.
Mike Norvell, Memphis: Norvell is viewed as the next best up-and-comer behind Frost. The 36-year-old has Memphis at 8-1 in his second season, and positioned for an AAC title game appearance. He's from Texas and played at Central Arkansas, so he could be in the mix for all the SEC West openings and possibly Tennessee or Florida.
Blake Anderson, Arkansas State: This job has been a springboard to SEC gigs, and Anderson looks ready as Arkansas State is closing in on at least a share of a third consecutive Sun Belt title. Anderson has coached in Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee. He could emerge as an option, especially if Mississippi State comes open.
Chad Morris, SMU: Morris is older (48) and could have jumped from Clemson offensive coordinator to a solid Power 5 gig. He simply needed to show progress at SMU, and he has in the last year. The Texas A&M alum figures to get a look at his alma mater and also could be in play at Arkansas and the Mississippi schools.
Neal Brown, Troy: The LSU win resonates, especially if Brown can lead Troy to another 10-win season and a potential Sun Belt title. Brown is still young (37) but has SEC and Big 12 coordinator experience. He could be an option at Mississippi State if Mullen moves on, or possibly other SEC vacancies.
Mike Bobo, Colorado State: SEC familiarity hasn't guaranteed success, and Bobo really needs to finish strong in his third season with the Rams after consecutive 7-6 records. But his offensive acumen is undeniable, and he should be able to handle the rigors of an SEC program after his years at Georgia.
Charlie Strong, South Florida: His first-year success at USF and deep roots in the SEC make him intriguing, but I don't know if the openings fit. South Carolina, for example, would be a likelier landing spot for Strong than most of the SEC West schools, and Florida is going to go offense with its hire.
Lane Kiffin, Florida Atlantic: The thought of Kiffin returning to the SEC after only one year at FAU may sound absurd to some, but remember, all it takes is one school to say yes. His Owls team has the best record (6-0) in Conference USA and leads the league in points (394). He might need one more year to make the jump, but crazier things have happened.
What are other jobs to watch?
UCLA: Big buyouts saved several coaches last season, Jim Mora included, and it could happen again. Mora's buyout remains high ($12.275 million with mitigation, according to USA Today) and UCLA's administration is reluctant to make a move. But he's leaving the school little choice with a second disappointing season. With Kelly and others available, and a beautiful on-campus football facility built, UCLA might have to do something if Mora doesn't finish strong.
Texas Tech: After a 4-1 start, Texas Tech dropped four straight before beating 1-8 Baylor on Saturday. A $6.7 million buyout isn't chump change, but Kingsbury really needs a strong finish against TCU and Texas. Morris, Anderson, Brown, North Texas' Seth Littrell are among the coaches who could be in the mix here.
Kansas: This is another school that had no intentions of changing coaches, especially after just three seasons. But the Jayhawks are regressing under David Beaty, who is just 3-31 overall and 1-24 in Big 12 play. Consecutive shutouts that featured 21 total yards at TCU -- a Big 12 record low -- plus a blowout loss to winless Baylor, puts Beaty's future in doubt. What if KU went a totally different direction and hired a guy like Air Force's Troy Calhoun or Tulane's Willie Fritz?
Arizona State: After a 2-3 start, Graham looked done in Tempe. But then the Sun Devils stunned Washington, thumped Utah on the road and outlasted Colorado. Last week's loss to UCLA stings, though, and a poor finish could open a job that will generate good candidates, Sumlin and Kelly among them.
Kansas State: Bill Snyder is still going strong, but his age and recent health issues make this one to watch. Snyder wants his son, Sean, the team's special teams coordinator, to succeed him. If not, Wyoming's Bohl, who worked for new K-State athletic director Gene Taylor at North Dakota State, could be a good compromise for Bill Snyder. I'd be surprised if Oregon defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt or Venables return to the Little Apple. Perhaps this is a landing spot for Bielema, a former Kansas State defensive coordinator. Anderson, Morris and former Cal coach Sonny Dykes could be options here.
What's the latest at Oregon State?
Not surprisingly, Oregon State would like a current head coach with Northwest ties. Can it land one? Former UCLA, Washington and Colorado coach Rick Neuheisel is interested, but seems like a reach. One name emerging here is Cal first-year offensive coordinator Beau Baldwin, who went 85-32 with an FCS national title at Eastern Washington. Baldwin knows the area well and has done a nice job helping Cal get back on track under Justin Wilcox.
Boise State's Harsin would be a great choice, but he likely can do a bit better. This might be a destination for McElwain, a Montana native who played and coached at Eastern Washington. A very intriguing name is Jeff Tedford, the former Cal coach and Oregon assistant who has Fresno State bowl-eligible in his first year. Washington State defensive coordinator Alex Grinch and Washington offensive coordinator Jonathan Smith, a former Beavers quarterback, also are options. Navy's Ken Niumataololo would be a fascinating choice, but I don't see him in Corvallis next year.
Will any out-of-work coaches land jobs this cycle?
There's very little buzz around former LSU coach Les Miles right now, but it doesn't mean a school won't come calling for a short-term fix. Dykes likely will have Group of 5 opportunities, and could be in the mix at Texas Tech, his alma mater, or possibly Kansas State. Former Oregon coach Mark Helfrich would be a great option if Boise State or Colorado State open, or maybe a second-tier Pac-12 job.
What coordinators have improved their stock this season?
As noted, the two coordinators most insiders pegged as locks to move on to Power 5 gigs were Penn State's Moorhead and Ohio State's Schiano. Both remain fairly good bets to move up, although recent games haven't helped.
Here are 12 others who have really boosted their profiles.
Miami defensive coordinator Manny Diaz: The mastermind behind the Turnover Chain has quickly made Miami's defense one of the best in the FBS, and he has all the ingredients to be a successful head coach. Succeeding Mark Richt at the U would be the dream, but barring some type of coach-in-waiting plan, Diaz should be in the mix for jobs this cycle. He would be a good fit at UCF or Mississippi State if Frost or Mullen moves on.
Georgia defensive coordinator Mel Tucker: Head coach Kirby Smart gets much of the credit for Georgia's Year 2 defensive breakthrough, but Tucker deserves some love, too. The 45-year-old has a great mix of college and NFL experience and seems ready for his first FBS head-coaching gig. His roots in the Midwest and Southeast make him a good candidate for top Group of 5 jobs or some Power 5 openings.
TCU offensive coordinator Sonny Cumbie: After sharing coordinator duties with Doug Meacham, Cumbie has thrived as the sole play-caller this season. TCU's rushing attack is much more explosive, and quarterback Kenny Hill has cut down mistakes. He likely would be a candidate if Texas Tech opens, or could land a solid AAC job like SMU.
Notre Dame defensive coordinator Mike Elko: He has turned around a disjointed and underachieving Irish defense in less than a season. Elko is smart and personable, and understands what it takes to rebuild programs. The 40-year-old might be limited to the East Coast and Midwest, and could stay another year in South Bend, but he has definitely put himself on the radar.
Oklahoma State offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich: He's a really unique candidate -- Mike Gundy found him on the internet while searching top-performing Division II offenses -- and he has boosted production in Stillwater. Yurcich is a Cleveland native with ties to the Midwest and now the Big 12, so he could fit at a lot of places.
Washington State defensive coordinator Alex Grinch: It's hard enough to coach defense in the Pac-12, especially opposite the Air Raid. But Grinch has strung together excellent units filled with playmakers despite having solid but not elite talent. Like Campbell and Toledo's Jason Candle, he's another Mount Union product who has worked in several regions and soon will be leading his own program.
Washington co-defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake: He lost three starters to the NFL and has still managed to produce the Pac-12's top pass defense, which has allowed only five touchdowns and 5.3 yards per completion. Lake is an excellent recruiter and talent developer, and he has the personality to lead a program. He could be a good option for Mountain West or possibly Pac-12 openings.
Alabama defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt: Make your anyone-could-win-with-Bama's-defense jokes if you'd like, but Pruitt has produced top defenses everywhere. His best selling point could be how much Florida State's defense has regressed since he left town. He certainly could be in the mix for some SEC jobs or a top Group of 5 job.
Texas defensive coordinator Todd Orlando: Yes, Texas is 5-5, but anyone who has studied the Longhorns sees the obvious improvement on defense under Orlando. After a very successful run at Houston, Orlando should be in the mix for AAC openings or perhaps some Power 5 gigs.
Iowa offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz: Two weeks ago, he called the game of his life against Ohio State, and even after a clunker at Wisconsin, Iowa's offense has made obvious strides in his second season as coordinator. Ferentz's NFL experience with the New England Patriots enhances his profile. Although he could be the successor to his father, Kirk, with the Hawkeyes, Ferentz should generate interest elsewhere.
West Virginia offensive coordinator Jake Spavital: Leaving Texas A&M has actually been a good thing for Spavital, who has had success at Cal and now West Virginia the past two seasons. His next stop is likely a good Group of 5 head-coaching spot like SMU or Memphis.
Among Group of 5 coordinators on the rise, keep an eye on: Houston's Brian Johnson, Fresno State's Kalen DeBoer and Orlondo Steinauer, UCF's Erik Chinander (a possible successor to Frost if he moves on), Northern Illinois' Kevin Kane, SMU's Joe Craddock, Louisiana-Monroe's Matt Kubik, San Diego State's Danny Gonzales, Toledo's Brian Wright and UTSA's Pete Golding.