Everybody starts the season undefeated. But the cruel reality of college football is that only a handful of those teams have a legitimate chance of winning the 2017 College Football Playoff.
The defending national champion Clemson Tigers have made it to the CFP for two straight years and are tied for eighth nationally in ESPN 300 recruits signed over the past five years (52).
Both elements would seem to point in the direction of this team being a shoo-in for a 2017 CFP playoff berth, yet a closer look indicates that Clemson is much more likely to miss the CFP this season.
(Note: Unless otherwise specified, all of the metrics detailed below are from Power 5 contests and the associated team and player rankings are from the 65 Power 5 teams.)
A dearth of returning talent
The Tigers' main issue is they don't bring back many players from last year's title squad. Clemson returns 12 starters, a total that ranks tied for 46th among Power 5 teams and tied for next to last in the ACC. Even the benefit of seven returning starters on defense isn't as great as it could be since the ACC returns more defensive starters per team than any other Power 5 conference (7.4).
Big losses on offense
Those personnel losses hurt most on offense, as the Tigers might lose more offensive firepower than any other team in college football.
The Tigers lose quarterback Deshaun Watson, who racked up 55 school records in his career and posted an 86.6 Total QBR last season, third highest among Power 5 quarterbacks.
At wide receiver, they say goodbye to second-team All-American Mike Williams, who ranked first among Power 5 receivers in vertical targets (72 targets thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and vertical receptions (41). They also lose Artavis Scott, a three-time All-ACC receiver who holds the program record for career receptions (245).
Those aren't the only impact pass-catchers gone from last year's team, as second-team All-American tight end Jordan Leggett is the Clemson tight end career leader in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. He was a big-play target last season and the only Power 5 tight end to post 20 or more vertical receptions (22).
The rushing attack also suffered huge losses. Between Wayne Gallman and Watson, the Tigers will have to replace 1,762 of the team's 2,546 rushing yards and 26 of the 30 rushing touchdowns.
No other team in the nation comes close to losing this much offensive talent. Clemson's media guide notes that the Tigers are the only FBS team that has to replace a 4,000-yard passer, a 1,000-yard receiver and a 1,000-yard rusher.
Penchant for high-scoring contests
These losses would be worrisome for any team, but they are even worse given Clemson's strong penchant for getting into high-scoring games. Last season, the Tigers had six games in which they and their opponent each scored 24 or more points, a total that was tied for 14th most among Power 5 teams. Clemson's 5-1 record in those matchups gave it a .833 win percentage that was second-highest among teams that participated in four or more high-scoring games, but that type of record will be hard to replicate given the offensive personnel losses.
Rush defense can be tested
The return of seven defensive starters offers Clemson's defense a very good opportunity to repeat its No. 6 ranking in points allowed per drive last season (1.3) and its No. 4 rank in yards allowed per pass attempt (5.9).
The Tigers do have a notable weak suit in rush defense, though.
Last season, Clemson ranked tied for 42nd in rushes of 10 or more yards allowed (63), 33rd in yards per carry after first defensive contact (1.8) and tied for 35th in rushing touchdowns allowed (19). The Tigers also placed 28th in yards allowed per carry on planned rushing plays (4.8).
This mediocre set of rush defense metrics is not a positive trait considering the Tigers' schedule. They face Louisville, Georgia Tech and Auburn, teams that finished second, third and 17th, respectively, in rush yards per game last season. Add in matchups against Virginia Tech (182.5 rush yards per game last season) and Florida State (180.3) and it means nearly half of Clemson's opponents will be able to test this platoon's biggest weakness.
Special teams won't win the close games
Special teams have been a weak link for the Tigers over the past four years. Clemson has posted a minus-65.3 mark during that time in ESPN Stats & Information's special teams expected points added (STEPA) metric, which measures special-teams performance in an expected points framework. That is by far the lowest total in this category, as it is more than 10 points lower than the next-to-last team on that list (Washington State, minus-53.8).
Clemson's minus-2.2 STEPA ranked 43rd last season, and its minus-19.3 expected points added mark in punting ranked tied for 59th.
Even the best part of this platoon has significant limitations. Over the past two seasons, kicker Greg Huegel ranks 74th out of 84 qualifying kickers in point after touchdown percentage (93.8 percent, minimum 20 PATs to qualify). Huegel also places 22nd in field goals of fewer than 40 yards (89.3 percent, among kickers with 20 or more field goal attempts) and hasn't even attempted a field goal of 50 yards or longer.
Tough schedule
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Tigers have the 11th-toughest schedule among teams in the FPI top 25. They face two teams in the FPI top 20 in the first three weeks of the season (Auburn and Louisville) and have a projected win rate of lower than 60 percent in each of those contests. Six of their 2017 foes currently rank in the FPI top 32, and that doesn't include a potential ACC championship game matchup that would almost certainly be against an FPI top-20 squad.
Bottom line
The FPI projects Clemson to lose three games and gives the Tigers only a 23.4 percent chance of winning the ACC. They aren't likely to top either of those projections given the lack of margin for error detailed above, so don't look for the Tigers to make it to the CFP for a third straight season.