It's time to dust off the crystal ball, because the future power rankings are back.
The FPR starts with the quarterback position and which programs are in the best shape for the next three college football seasons: 2017, 2018 and 2019. The rankings consider the current rosters, incoming recruits (either signed or committed), coaching and other factors.
The QB future power rankings are unique because exceptional young players with multiple seasons of remaining eligibility can, on occasion, propel teams past others with arguably more depth. Yet most of the top teams on the list can rely on multiple signal-callers. This list is not assessing what happens if a starter gets hurt, but rather who can lead these offenses through the next three seasons and what they can do on the field.
We spoke with coaches, analysts and others to assess the 25 programs with the best quarterback outlook through the 2019 season.
1. Returning starter: Baker Mayfield (3,965 passing yards, 40 passing touchdowns, eight interceptions, 177 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns, 92.9 total QBR led the FBS in 2016)
Scouting the Sooners: Other than perhaps Louisville, no team has a better immediate quarterback situation than Oklahoma, which gets the historically productive Mayfield for one more year, under the direction of dynamic offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley. Although Mayfield, who is facing charges after a weekend public intoxication arrest, will be gone after 2017 and Riley could land a head-coaching gig this winter, Oklahoma likely will turn to Kyler Murray, the Texas A&M transfer whom ESPN ranked as the nation's top dual-threat quarterback in the 2015 class. "There's no question with Oklahoma," a Big 12 assistant said. "When you think Baker's gone, they get the kid from A&M. They shouldn't miss a beat." Murray has three years of eligibility left and could take OU through 2019. The Sooners have some insurance with Austin Kendall, who appeared in two games in 2016 and will gain another year of experience before taking on a bigger role in 2018. "That guy [Murray] is so talented," a Big 12 coach said, "and they like the other kid [Kendall] just as much."
2. USC Trojans
Returning starter: Sam Darnold (3,086 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 250 rushing yards, two touchdowns, 86.8 total QBR in 2016)
Scouting the Trojans: Darnold has three more years of eligibility left, but if he matches or exceeds his production from 2016, it would be very tempting for him to go pro. "He is going to be a top-five NFL pick," a Pac-12 defensive coordinator said. "He's clearly the best [pro-style] quarterback and the best pro prospect that the Pac-12 has." Another Pac-12 defensive coordinator added, "He's the guy who makes everything go for them." But others in the league question his durability, citing his injury situation in high school. If USC gets Darnold for two more seasons, there may not be a better quarterback situation -- or overall offensive outlook -- in the country. If he's gone in 2018, the situation gets murkier as USC has had several quarterbacks transfer. Matt Fink likely will be Darnold's backup this season before Jack Sears, the No. 5 pocket passer in the 2017 class, puts himself in contention to play. USC's history of producing strong quarterbacks works in its favor here.
3. Returning starter: Jake Browning (3,430 passing yards, 43 touchdowns, nine interceptions, four rushing touchdowns, 81.7 total QBR in 2016)
Scouting the Huskies: Washington should be in great shape the next two years with Browning, who is unlikely to turn pro early and continues to ascend as an elite college quarterback. "He's got good arm strength, but it's not necessarily an NFL arm," a Pac-12 defensive assistant said. "He's kind of a product of that offense. You've got to be a smart kid to play in that system." The question is what happens in 2019. Although a Pac-12 coach didn't think much of the current Washington reserves -- "They're just guys," he said -- the Huskies have Jacob Sirmon committed for 2018. Sirmon, the son of Louisville defensive coordinator Peter Sirmon, is a "bigger version of Jake Browning," according to ESPN national recruiting director Tom Luginbill. Ideally, he redshirts in 2018 before competing with Daniel Bridge-Gadd in 2019.
4. Returning starter: J.T. Barrett (2,555 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 845 rushing yards, nine touchdowns, 68 total QBR in 2016)
Scouting the Buckeyes: This fall, Barrett wraps up a decorated career hoping to recapture the form he displayed in 2014, when he completed 64.7 percent of his passes and fired 34 touchdown strikes. "I'm interested in how they manage him this season," a Big Ten coach said. "They ran him a ton [in 2016], and it clearly took a toll." The good news is Ohio State is well prepared for life after Barrett. The Buckeyes have signed ESPN 300 quarterbacks in each of the past three recruiting classes: Joe Burrow (2015), Dwayne Haskins Jr. (2016) and Tate Martell (2017). Burrow likely will continue as Barrett's backup this fall before competing with Haskins for the top job in 2018. "They like both of those guys," Luginbill said. "Maybe the team in the best shape with the most competition."
5. Returning starter: Jalen Hurts (2,780 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 954 rushing yards, 13 rushing touchdowns, 71.6 total QBR in 2016)
Scouting the Tide: Hurts showed exceptional poise during his freshman season and exceeded most expectations. If he builds on his debut, he could lead Alabama throughout the next three years, as most don't see him as a candidate to leave early for the NFL. But some coaches are skeptical about Hurts as a long-term answer because of occasional accuracy issues. "I always look at it like an NFL prospect," said a defensive coordinator who faced Alabama last year. "I don't see Hurts as an NFL prospect at all. Maybe Tua [Tagovailoa] is the guy." Tagovailoa, the top-ranked dual-threat quarterback in the 2017 class, could be the long-term answer for the Tide.
6. Returning starter: Wilton Speight (2,538 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, seven interceptions, one rushing touchdown, 74.6 total QBR in 2016)
Scouting the Wolverines: Michigan has options, which always bodes well at the quarterback position. It's possible Speight builds on a solid sophomore season and leads Michigan's offense through the next two years. John O'Korn provides a fallback this season, but it will get really interesting in 2018 as Brandon Peters -- the No. 3 pocket passer in the 2016 class --- will be ready to contribute. Peters' winning the job sooner than later would not come as a surprise to those around the program. Michigan also signed Dylan McCaffrey, the No. 6 pocket passer in the 2017 class, who should benefit from a year in the system as he remains a bit raw. "They'll have a really good quarterback in the next year or two," a Big Ten defensive coordinator said. "They're going to bring in talent."
7. Returning starter: None
Scouting the Tigers: Deshaun Watson departs Death Valley as the greatest player in team history, leaving major voids in production (10,163 career passing yards, 90 career passing touchdowns) and leadership. But Clemson's recruiting upgrade has paid off at quarterback, and while an immediate drop-off is likely, the future looks bright. Earlier this month, Clemson signed Hunter Johnson, the top-rated pocket passer in the 2017 class. The Tigers also have Zerrick Cooper, who program insiders say is a better runner than Watson and, like Johnson, boasts a live arm. Kelly Bryant might not be as talented as Johnson or Cooper, but he has been in the program since January 2015 and will get a great chance to win the starting job this spring. "You assume Clemson's going to continue at QB," an ACC coach said. "As long as they're evaluating the right guys, they will have the best talent."
8. Returning starter: Lamar Jackson (3,543 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 1,571 rushing yards, 21 rushing touchdowns, 84.1 total QBR in 2016)
Scouting the Cardinals: Louisville conceivably could have the reigning Heisman Trophy winner for two more seasons, which bodes very well for the offense. So why aren't the Cardinals higher? Coaches and others are skeptical about Jackson and the Cardinals' ability to keep producing, especially after a bumpy finish to last season and their glaring issues along the offensive line. "He is a tremendous athlete that can break your back taking off and running," a Power 5 coach said. "But if you get into a game where he has to throw it, they're in trouble." Some also expect Jackson to depart for the NFL after this season, and Louisville's quarterback recruiting behind Jackson has been unremarkable. Still, coach Bobby Petrino's track record of quarterback development is strong.
9. Returning starter: Deondre Francois (3,350 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 198 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns, 79.6 total QBR in 2016)
Scouting the Seminoles: Florida State is one of the more interesting and difficult teams to rank. Francois has three more seasons of eligibility left and could carry the Seminoles' offense through the period being considered. "He can beat you with his arm or his legs, and he's really poised for a young guy," an ACC coach said. "He would sit there and wait until the last second to throw the ball and he'd get blown up, and he'd get up and get ready to go. That kid's pretty special." A defensive coordinator who faced Francois last year added, "He was a very accurate thrower, and [coach] Jimbo [Fisher] working with him, he's going to get better. He had a great presence. Kids believed in him, rallied around him." Still, if Florida State doesn't improve its protection, injury seems inevitable. "Watching some of their games and some of the shots that kid took, the kid is a warrior. Oh my gosh, the shots he took and he'd pop right back up," said another ACC defensive coordinator. "When quarterbacks do that, they get the respect of the whole team." FSU's outlook would be a little less murky if Malik Henry hadn't decided to transfer. The Seminoles haven't stockpiled elite quarterback recruits behind Francois.
10. Auburn Tigers
Returning starter: Sean White (1,679 passing yards, nine passing touchdowns, three interceptions, 163 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, 70.8 total QBR in 2016)
Scouting the Tigers: Although Auburn returns two quarterbacks who played last season in White and John Franklin III, Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham will garner most of the attention this spring. Stidham, who completed 68.8 percent of his passes and threw 12 touchdowns against only two interceptions for Baylor in 2015, has three years of eligibility left. "I don't know how quickly he'll win the job but that dude is talented as hell," said a Power 5 coach who recruited Stidham. "He was one of the best camp evaluations I've ever had." The interesting element with Stidham is the NFL, as he could jump after 2017. Several coaches think he has enough talent. "He is definitely legit," a Power 5 coach said. White shouldn't be counted out if he can provide more big plays while continuing to limit mistakes. Woody Barrett, an ESPN 300 prospect in the 2016 class, also could compete for playing time sooner than later.
11. Returning starter: Mason Rudolph (4,091 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, four interceptions, 61 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns, 76.9 total QBR in 2016)
Scouting the Cowboys: The Pokes are in great shape at quarterback in 2017, as Rudolph's return gives them a steady hand and a proven producer. "He knows that system like the back of his hand, and he's as efficient as anybody we've played," a Big 12 coach said. "I'm shocked he's still staying." It doesn't hurt that top wide receiver James Washington and offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich, who was considered for Auburn's OC vacancy, also return. The key question is what happens in 2018 and 2019. Oklahoma State has enough quarterbacks on the roster, but no obvious successor for 2018, which could turn into a transition year. Insiders say Spencer Sanders, a 2018 commit, could be Oklahoma State's next big-time signal-caller.
12. Returning starter: Trace McSorley (3,614 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, eight interceptions, 365 rushing yards, seven rushing touchdowns, 71.7 total QBR in 2016)
Scouting the Nittany Lions: McSorley's big-play ability propelled Penn State to a Big Ten title and a Rose Bowl berth. He's in line to start the next two seasons and will benefit from Penn State's strong skill-position recruiting and gradual depth being built along the offensive line. "It will be interesting to see his next step," a Big Ten coach said. "He's a ballplayer. He takes some risks, and they won on a lot of 50-50 balls last year." A Big Ten coordinator added of McSorley, "He is the catalyst. He keeps plays alive, especially with his feet to break contain. That's a huge part of what they did in that stretch run -- he made two to three plays per game outside the realm of coaching." Penn State is prepared for the out years at quarterback with Sean Clifford, the No. 3 pocket passer in the 2017 class. The Lions also have a verbal commitment from Justin Fields, the top-rated dual-threat quarterback in the 2018 class. "If they can hold on to Justin Fields in 2018, they will be in great shape," Luginbill said.
13. Oregon Ducks
Returning starter: Justin Herbert (1,936 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, four interceptions, 161 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, 75.4 total QBR in 2016)
Scouting the Ducks: Oregon has its challenges, especially on defense, but the quarterback outlook looks bright with Herbert, who performed well last fall as the first true freshman to start at Oregon since 1983. "He impressed me as much as any young guy in the country," a Power 5 coach said. "He can make all the throws, he's very athletic." A Pac-12 defensive coordinator agreed but noted that the scheme change under new Ducks coach Willie Taggart could bring some growing pains for Herbert and the other quarterbacks recruited by the previous staff. If Herbert stays healthy and continues to progress, he could carry Oregon through the next three seasons. Redshirt freshman Terry Wilson Jr. gives the Ducks some insurance behind Herbert.
14. UCLA Bruins
Returning starter: Josh Rosen (1,915 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, five interceptions, two rushing touchdowns, 60.4 total QBR in injury-shortened 2016 season)
Scouting the Bruins: There are more question marks surrounding Rosen entering his third season, as he returns from surgery to his throwing shoulder and will be working with his third offensive coordinator (Jedd Fisch) in as many seasons. But when healthy and protected, few college quarterbacks have more natural ability. "I still like Rosen a lot," a Pac-12 defensive coordinator said. "He's going to be a pro talent. He's that next guy behind Darnold and Browning in the conference." Another Pac-12 defensive assistant added, "Rosen is a freaking stud. When we saw Rosen as a true freshman and [Jared] Goff at Cal, I felt Rosen was a lot better." UCLA isn't higher because of Rosen's health questions and no proven depth behind him. The Bruins had to turn to former walk-on Mike Fafaul after Rosen went down last season. Redshirt freshman Devon Modster, a four-star recruit in the 2016 class, is likely the next option after Rosen.
15. Georgia Bulldogs
Returning starter: Jacob Eason (2,430 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, eight interceptions, one rushing touchdown, 57.6 total QBR in 2016)
Scouting the Bulldogs: Between the Jakes -- Eason and 2017 recruit Jake Fromm -- Georgia knows who will likely lead the offense during the next three seasons. Eason could become a four-year starter, especially if he finds greater consistency as a sophomore. "He's only going to get better," a Power 5 coach said. "He was probably average to below average last year but he's got all the tools. It will help him that they'll run the ball well around him." A defensive coordinator who faced Eason last season added, "He's the real deal." Most agree that Fromm, the No. 7 pocket passer in the 2017 class, isn't quite at Eason's talent level, but could end up pushing Eason in 2018 and take over the job in 2019 if Eason heads to the NFL.
16. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Returning starter: Nick Fitzgerald (2,423 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, 10 interceptions; 1,375 rushing yards, 16 rushing touchdowns, 77.3 total QBR in 2016)
Scouting the Bulldogs: There are several reasons to be bullish about the Bulldogs' future quarterback situation. Fitzgerald emerged late last season as a dynamic dual threat, and if he can steady his passing accuracy, he could be the SEC's most productive quarterback. He also has two seasons of eligibility left. Incoming freshman Keytaon Thompson, who won Mr. Football in Louisiana in 2016, fits Mississippi State's system. Coach Dan Mullen's track record at quarterback is unassailable, and as long as he remains in Starkville, the Bulldogs should be strong under center. "They always have really good dual-threat players," an SEC defensive coordinator said. "[Mullen] does a good job of identifying those guys and getting them. The kid they have now [Fitzgerald] is going to tear it up, and they just signed a player out of Louisiana [Thompson] who is going to be great."
17. Returning starter: Keller Chryst (905 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, two interceptions, 159 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns in 2016)
Scouting the Cardinal: There are questions within the group, namely how Chryst, who went 6-0 as Stanford's starter last season, responds from a serious knee injury. Whoever takes snaps for the Cardinal will need to produce more in the passing game, as neither Chryst nor Ryan Burns was a huge factor in the Christian McCaffrey-led offense in 2016. Stanford likely will go with Chryst or Burns in 2017 and Chryst could take the offense through 2018. The team's most talented options are young, as K.J. Costello and Davis Mills both ranked No. 2 among pocket passers in the past two recruiting classes. "It's interesting," a Pac-12 recruiting chief said. "The guys are good, they're not bad players. I'm not like, 'Oh my god, I wish we would have had that guy.' They're OK, and they're going to go in and manage [the game]."
18. Ole Miss Rebels
Returning starter: None
Scouting the Rebels: The quarterback position is one of few bright spots for a program in turmoil, especially after Shea Patterson showcased his talent late last season. Patterson started the final three games in place of Chad Kelly and accounted for 1,049 yards of total offense. The dynamic dual-threat talent could take Ole Miss through the three seasons being evaluated. If Patterson becomes more consistent as a passer, he should blossom in an offense suited for big plays, especially from the wide receivers. Jason Pellerin, who backed up Kelly for most of last season, also has three years of eligibility left. Either Pellerin or junior college transfer Jordan Ta'amu, the No. 4 dual-threat junior college signal-caller, will back up Patterson.
19. Returning starter: None
Scouting the Irish: The early losses of DeShone Kizer (to the NFL draft) and Malik Zaire (to transfer) are mitigated by the excitement surrounding Brandon Wimbush, the favorite to start in 2017 after redshirting last season. Notre Dame coaches are bullish on Wimbush, the No. 4 dual-threat quarterback in the 2015 class, as he brings accuracy to the pocket and enters his third season in the program. "It is riding on Wimbush right now," said ESPN recruiting analyst Tom VanHaaren. "He's an accurate passer, what they need right now, and doesn't require a ton of experience. I have high confidence that he will pan out, but you just don't know until you see it." The concern is that pretty much everything rides on a player who hasn't proved anything at the college level. Notre Dame signed Ian Book and ESPN 300 prospect Avery Davis the past two years, but both are a bit undersized.
20. Returning starter: Manny Wilkins (2,329 passing yards, 12 touchdown passes, nine interceptions, 246 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns, 52.7 total QBR in 2016)
Scouting the Sun Devils: Sometimes it's good to have options at quarterback, and new Arizona State offensive coordinator Billy Napier inherits plenty this spring. Wilkins, Brady White and Dillon Sterling-Cole all started games for the Sun Devils last season, and Arizona State adds Alabama transfer Blake Barnett, who knows Napier from his time in Tuscaloosa. All four signal-callers have sophomore eligibility and could take Arizona State through the entire evaluation period. "Underrated," a Pac-12 defensive assistant called the Sun Devils' quarterback situation. "Brady White will have a really good future there. The kid from Houston, Sterling, he's really, really talented. His accuracy is not very good but he's got great arm strength." ASU added even more insurance with incoming recruit Ryan Kelley, ESPN's No. 11 dual-threat quarterback in the 2017 class.
21. Texas Longhorns
Returning starter: Shane Buechele (2,958 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 161 rushing yards, two touchdowns, 56.2 total QBR in 2016)
Scouting the Longhorns: Texas has two young quarterbacks who can carry the team through the next three seasons in Buechele and incoming recruit Sam Ehlinger, the No. 4 dual-threat quarterback in the 2017 class. Most coaches praise Buechele but several noted that new Texas coach Tom Herman prefers quarterbacks with more running ability. "I really liked him," a Power 5 offensive coordinator said. "He had such a pretty ball and good timing. But Herman would have to settle in more than he did at Ohio State and Houston. If Tom's going to do what he does, Shane's probably going to be at another school." Ehlinger, meanwhile, rushed for 2,395 yards and 35 touchdowns in high school. "Ehlinger is like a poor man's [Tim] Tebow," an SEC defensive assistant said.
22. Returning starter: None
Scouting the Spartans: After a season in which very little went right, including at quarterback, Michigan State should get back on track under center. Remember, MSU has had a strong run of signal-callers under Mark Dantonio, from Brian Hoyer to Kirk Cousins to Connor Cook. It's likely that Brian Lewerke leads MSU through most of the evaluation period. Dantonio named Lewerke the man to beat after the season, and the staff really likes his accuracy, quick release and overlooked escapability. "He does nice job getting out on the perimeter," a Big Ten offensive assistant said. "He has the ability to extend plays." Fifth-year senior Damion Terry should push Lewerke as he wraps up an injury-plagued career. Redshirt freshman Messiah deWeaver, an ESPN 300 prospect in the 2016 class, also should be in the mix during the next few seasons.
23. Returning starter: Luke Falk (4,468 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 71.3 total QBR)
Scouting the Cougars: Falk's seemingly decades-long career on the Palouse finally ends in 2017, but his return stabilizes Washington State at quarterback for one final season. The big question is what happens in 2018 and 2019, the final two years being considered. Tyler Hilinski, entering his sophomore season, was an unheralded recruit but the type of taller quarterback who can thrive under quarterback guru Mike Leach. Some Pac-12 coaches are lukewarm on Hilinski, and those familiar with the program expect "a major drop-off" after Falk leaves. But Hilinski has logged valuable time in the program behind Falk, and few coaches develop quarterbacks better than Leach.
24. Duke Blue Devils
Returning starter: Daniel Jones (2,836 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 486 rush yards, seven touchdowns, 66.3 total QBR in 2016)
Scouting the Blue Devils: This ranking is based almost completely on Jones, who enters his redshirt sophomore season and could carry Duke through the three seasons being evaluated. After a five-interception disaster against Virginia, Jones threw only one more pick and 10 touchdowns in the final seven games. Coach David Cutcliffe's track record with quarterbacks suggests Jones only will get better. "For what he did last year, he may end up being the best Cut's ever had," an ACC coach said. "Especially for as young as he was." An ACC defensive coordinator added "He was a gritty competitor. He didn't act like a freshman." Quentin Harris, also a third-year sophomore, is Duke's next option and the team signed three-star recruit Chris Katrenick earlier this month.
25. Returning starter: Brett Rypien (3,646 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, eight interceptions, two rushing touchdowns, 64.1 QBR in 2016)
Scouting the Broncos: Rypien has led the Mountain West in passing in each of his first two seasons and should lead the Broncos' offense through the 2018 campaign. A Power 5 offensive coordinator who had Rypien in camp praised the quarterback's arm strength and decision-making. Boise State has some immediate insurance with Rathen Ricedorff, a junior college transfer, but its overall depth is a concern. Earlier this month, Boise State signed Chase Cord, the No. 21 pocket passer in the 2017 class and a player who received good Power 5 interest. If Cord develops under coach Bryan Harsin, he should be ready to step in for Rypien in 2019.