Clemson and Oklahoma will kick off the second College Football Playoff on Thursday afternoon, and the only virtual certainty is that the semifinal will look nothing like the teams' last meeting.
Exactly one year ago, Clemson walloped OU 40-6 in the Russell Athletic Bowl. The embarrassment sparked some soul searching for Sooners coach Bob Stoops, who revamped his staff and plugged in Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield at quarterback. Clemson, meanwhile, built on the performance to record the only perfect season in the FBS this fall.
The teams reunite at Sun Life Stadium in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl (4 p.m. ET on ESPN, WatchESPN). It's a pairing packed with firepower, from dynamic quarterbacks (Mayfield and Clemson's Deshaun Watson, a Heisman finalist) to productive running backs (Clemson's Wayne Gallman, Oklahoma's Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon) to upgraded defenses with playmakers such as Clemson's Shaq Lawson and OU's Zack Sanchez.
What should we expect Thursday afternoon? Opposing coaches break down the Sooners-Tigers semifinal matchup.
Both quarterbacks propelled their teams to the playoff, but they did it in different ways. Watson, who ranks third nationally in total QBR, is a true dual threat who averages 5.4 yards per rush with 11 touchdowns. But his strongest attribute is accuracy.
He ranks second nationally in completion percentage (69.5). Coaches say the toughest thing for opponents is that Watson's numbers don't drop significantly when he looks downfield.
"You have to put safeties in the box to stop the run," an ACC coach said. "Once you do that, he's throwing the ball over your head at a 65 percent completion rate. It's unbelievable. Most teams are going to be under 50 percent when you're talking about throwing bombs, and he's over 65."
Mayfield rushed for less than half as many yards (420) as Watson (887), but his ability to extend plays might be unmatched among the playoff teams. "Certain" sacks turn into completed passes as Mayfield finds ways to evade the rush and improvise.
"He has that instinct to step up, to slide," a Big 12 coach said. "He's not a tremendous athlete, but he's a better athlete than people realize. And you have to honor him in the run game.
"I don't think they're a dominant offensive line; they're just really efficient. But the catalyst is Mayfield."
Watson faces an Oklahoma secondary coaches say is the biggest reason for the defense's rise from 55th nationally in scoring defense to 22nd (first in Big 12). New Sooners defensive backs coach Kerry Cooks has "unified" the group, a coach said, and given coordinator Mike Stoops more faith in how he calls plays. Cornerbacks Sanchez (six interceptions, seven breakups) and Jordan Thomas (five interceptions, four breakups) have developed into playmakers.
The Sooners go up against a deep and dangerous Clemson receiving corps that features five players averaging at least 13 yards per reception, including freshmen Deon Cain and Hunter Renfrow. [Editor's note: Cain was sent home Tuesday for violating team rules.]
"Freaks, man," an opposing coach said. "Those young wideouts are phenomenal."
Oklahoma has the best receiver on the field in senior Sterling Shepard, by far Mayfield's top option. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Mayfield has completed 75.8 percent of his throws when targeting Shepard this season. "Probably the NFL's next [Tyler] Lockett," a coach said. "A third- or fourth-round pick and then a Pro Bowler."
Clemson counters with cornerback tandem Mackensie Alexander and Cordrea Tankersley; the latter leads the team in interceptions (5) and breakups (7). Alexander labeled himself as the nation's best corner before the season, and one ACC coach said he compares well with Florida State All-American Jalen Ramsey.
A revamped defensive line anchored by Lawson also draws praise.
"They don't have the quick-twitch [Vic] Beasley guy," one coach said, referring to Clemson's All-America defensive end from 2014, "but they have big, long guys like Alabama who collapse rushing lanes and push people into the quarterback."
The concern is how Clemson will handle Oklahoma's tempo. Clemson allowed 27 or more points in four of its final six games, including 37 in the ACC championship to a North Carolina team that operates quickly, as Oklahoma does with first-year coordinator Lincoln Riley.
"Lincoln has got the system going," a Power 5 coordinator said. "The tempo will affect Clemson. It affected them against North Carolina. They couldn't get lined up."
Both defenses can't overcommit to the pass or the running backs will make them pay. Oklahoma's rushing renaissance since it lost to Texas -- at least 232 rushing yards in each of the final seven games, three games of more than 300 yards -- fueled its playoff run. Coaches consider Perine and Mixon one of the nation's best rushing tandems.
Gallman, meanwhile, quietly recorded seven 100-yard rushing performances and needs just 14 yards to set Clemson's single-season record. "Their tailback's the most improved part of their team," an ACC coach said.
With no glaring weakness on offense or defense, Thursday's game could come down to special teams. Both teams have solid freshman specialists in Oklahoma's Austin Seibert and Clemson's Greg Huegel. But Oklahoma has a distinct edge on coverage teams.
The Sooners lead the nation in punt coverage (Clemson ranks 35th). Clemson is 107th in kick return yards allowed (23.7-yard average), with two return touchdowns allowed. Although Oklahoma ranks 101st in expected points added through special teams, Clemson is 126th, second to last among FBS teams.
"They're really, really below average," a Power 5 coach said. "The way that they played on those four units didn't match up to how they played on offense and defense. It could kill them."
Another potential edge for Oklahoma is what happened last year. Although both teams are dramatically different -- Mayfield was still sitting out for the Sooners -- OU's veterans haven't forgotten the beating they absorbed in Florida.
"Let's not kid ourselves, the revenge factor," one coach said. "OU got the s--- beat out of them last year. You've got two good quarterbacks, two good defenses, and there's a lot of ties here.
"It should be a heck of a game."