When even Dommaraju Gukesh decides that there is nothing more to do with the position and accepts a draw by three-fold repetition before move 40, that is an indication of how little chance there was for either player in game 10 of the FIDE World Chess Championship 2024
10 games in, it's 5-5, and there's increasingly a pattern emerging. Ding Liren really isn't forcing the initiative, particularly in his games with white pieces. There have been only two decisive results in 10 attempts so far, and both have come when Gukesh has had the white pieces.
Grandmaster Anish Giri, on commentary for Chess24, said that any initiative in this match in the four remaining classical games will have to come from Gukesh, because Ding seems to be content to take this to the tie-breaks, where he certainly is the more-fancied player.
Gukesh has only had a look-in in one game with black so far, but he ceded the advantage and could also have lost in game 8. In every other such game, Ding has maybe had a small advantage but has been content to let Gukesh off the hook in playing out quick draws.
By his very nature, Ding is a very solid player first. He is just difficult to beat. GM Srinath Narayanan had told ESPN before the world championships that, at his best, Ding had a Rahul Dravid-like solidity to him, which made it so hard to win games against him.
Clearly, he isn't at his absolute best yet, but he has found that solidity. There might be some critics of him not taking the initiative with the white pieces, but most of those draws have been played out on his terms. He's also now playing the situation. So, if you thought he was being safe so far, it seems as if his mindset is only going further in that direction.
"There's not so much room to make mistakes. Every loss will result in a very bad situation, so we need to be careful on every move," he said after game 10.
Gukesh, in essence, is a very different kind of player. And that's why his games with white have been the ones with larger variance. Gukesh wants action on the chess board. He doesn't like the symmetry and the early trading of pieces that would ensure that he wouldn't lose. He likes creating some imbalances in positions that would give him an opportunity to win. Now, it is that nature which causes a dichotomy for Gukesh, his answers to which will dictate the way in which this match will proceed.
After game 10, Gukesh said at the press conference that the value of every mistake is now higher than it was earlier in this match. In the last couple of games, that mindset has reflected in how he has played. His accuracy has been sky-high, he has been playing by the book, that is not really him. But that is also what the situation has demanded from him. A big tick on adaptability, now can he once again create an opportunity to score a win?
It is clearly down to Gukesh to force the initiative if he wants this world championship to be decided in the classical format. Any forcing of the initiative comes with its own risks. What if he overpushes and leaves his defences a bit weak? There's always the possibility of certain miscalculations in any situation. There is a tangible reward to taking risks at this stage, for sure. If they come off and result in a decisive game in your favour, then you're giving your opponent very few opportunities to stage a comeback.
For example, if Gukesh can force a win in game 11, then he will control the destiny of game 13 with the white pieces, and as he has shown in the last couple of days, he can knuckle down and play really precise draws, if need be.
Gukesh has recently been talking about how it doesn't matter to him which colour he's playing with, since computers have nearly made the built-in natural advantage for white disappear. However, for Gukesh to force the initiative, he needs to be the one acting, not reacting. Ding's approach with the white pieces hasn't really left much room for decisive games. So, it is only fair that Gukesh keeps taking these uneventful draws with black.
"I'm up for a game with both colors, but with Black to get a solid draw like this, it's obviously a good result," he said.
Sunday is a massive day in Gukesh's quest to become the youngest-ever world champion. Win, and it's a massive statement delivered, apart from forcing Ding to come out of this shell that he has put himself under, when playing with white. Should Gukesh lose with white on Sunday, then he'd be reaching a stage where he might need a miracle to be crowned king of the chess world.