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March Madness Final Four betting notes: Villanova's strong history against Kansas

Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels look to claim Villanova's third national title in the last six tourneys. AP Photo/David J. Phillip

For the first time ever, all four Final Four teams enter having won multiple national championships. All four teams entered the year with 30-1 or shorter odds, with Villanova leading the way at 12-1, and North Carolina the biggest preseason long shot at 30-1.

North Carolina was a much bigger long shot entering the NCAA tournament. The Tar Heels were 100-1 during the First Four. If they cut down the nets on Monday, they would be the biggest pretournament long shot to win it all in over 25 seasons according to SportsOddsHistory.com.

Duke and Kansas enter the Final Four as the two favorites, and historically, one of them will likely win the national championship. In 16 of the past 17 Final Fours, one of the two favorites entering the Final Four went on to win it all, according to SportsOddsHistory.com. The one exception was in 2014 when UConn won it all.

Last weekend, 11 of the 12 Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games went under the total. Historically, there aren't significant trends to totals having different results in the Final Four. However, the last time the Final Four was held in New Orleans, all three games went under the total.


2 Villanova vs. 1 Kansas (-4.5), Saturday at 6:09 ET

  • Villanova is 4-0 against the spread (ATS) in the NCAA tournament. Kansas is 2-2 ATS in the NCAA tournament and 6-2 ATS in its past eight games.

  • Since 2016, Villanova is 20-3 outright and 19-4 ATS in the NCAA tournament.

  • Villanova is 202-133-5 ATS over the past 10 seasons (60.3%), the best mark in Division I.

  • Villanova is 27-17-2 ATS as an underdog in that span (2-3-1 ATS this season).

  • Villanova is 8-3 ATS in neutral-site games this season and 50-27-2 ATS in such games since 2014-15.

  • Villanova is also 52-26-3 ATS against ranked teams in the past 10 seasons and 21-10 ATS against top-10 teams. However, Villanova is 1-4 ATS against top-10 teams this season.

  • Villanova has been an underdog of four or more points only twice in the past three seasons (0-2 ATS, both against Baylor).

  • Jay Wright is 7-1 ATS against Bill Self, including 6-1 ATS and 4-3 outright as an underdog. Villanova has covered all four meetings in the past decade.

  • Bill Self is 6-15 ATS against Big East schools as Kansas coach.

  • Unders are 6-1 in Villanova's past seven games and 7-3 in Kansas' past 10 games.

  • Since 1992, 1-seeds are 12-4 ATS against 2-seeds in the Final Four.

  • Kansas (9-1) was the only team with odds shorter than 10-1 entering the tournament. Each of the past four national champions had single-digit odds entering the NCAA tournament. The last exception was Villanova in 2016 (15-1).

8 North Carolina vs. 2 Duke (-4), Saturday at 8:49 ET

  • North Carolina is 20-16-1 ATS this season while Duke is 20-16-2 ATS this season. North Carolina games are 21-14-2 to the over, while Duke games are 21-16-1 to the over.

  • North Carolina is 8-2 ATS against Duke in the past 10 meetings.

  • The past six meetings have gone over the total.

  • North Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its past eight games.

  • North Carolina is 2-0 outright as an underdog in this tournament after going 0-5 ATS in the previous 20 NCAA tournaments.

  • Mike Krzyzewski is 13-8 ATS in Final Four games.

  • Hubert Davis is making his first Final Four appearance. Coaches making their Final Four debuts are 7-1-1 ATS in the national semifinals in the past 10 seasons.

  • Overs are 8-2 in Duke's past 10 games.

  • Since 2000, teams seeded 8 or lower are 2-7-1 ATS in the Final Four against higher seeds.

  • North Carolina was 100-1 entering the NCAA tournament. North Carolina would be the biggest pretournament long shot to win the NCAA tournament in over 25 years, according to SportsOddsHistory.com. The current biggest long shot in that span is 2014 UConn (95-1).