Wednesday offers a huge 13-game slate in the NBA, including an ESPN doubleheader with the Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics followed by the LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets.
ESPN betting analysts Eric Moody, André Snellings, Anita Marks and Joe Fortenbaugh offer up their best bets.
Records
Moody 18-19
Snellings 11-16
Dolan 1-0
Marks 7-7-1
Fortenbaugh 1-0
Kezirian 1-0
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers (-12, 212) 7 p.m. ET
Moody: Joel Embiid is currently experiencing his best statistical run of the season. A 76ers team desperately seeking playmakers will continue to rely heavily on him. In 12 of his last 14 games, Embiid has scored more than 30 points. His 31-point performance against the Magic earlier this month is just one example. This season, Orlando has allowed opposing centers to score 22 points per game. Embiid shouldn't have any problem exceeding that figure.
Pick: Embiid over 28.5 points
Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards (-1.5, 231.5) 7 p.m. ET
Moody: With Kevin Durant expected to miss at least a month with a sprained MCL, Patty Mills should continue to see an increased workload and minutes moving forward. Per 40 minutes, he's averaged 17.4 points, 2.6 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. In four of his last five games, Mills has scored 10 or more points.
Picks: Mills over 12.5 points (-125), Mills over 2.5 total 3 point field goals (-120), Mills over 0.5 steals (-125)
Marks: The Nets will be without Durant (knee), and Nic Claxton is expected to miss tonight's game as well. Brooklyn has very little depth, and will have to figure out how to ebb and flow without Durant on the court. Washington is the healthier team and have won 4 of their last 6 games. This is more of a fade of the Nets than anything else.
Pick: Wizards -1.5
Minnesota Timberwolves at Atlanta Hawks (-2, 234) 7:30 p.m. ET
Moody: De'Andre Hunter has averaged 15.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.5 blocks in four games since returning from wrist surgery. Although Hunter has only played 15 games this season, he is averaging 3.7 triples per game and connecting on 42.3% of them. The Timberwolves have been a favorable matchup for forwards this season. Minnesota's defenders have allowed 22 points, 8.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 3.0 triples, 1.7 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game to their opponents at the position.
Picks: Hunter over 13.5 points (-120), Hunter over 1.5 assists (+115), Hunter over 1.5 total 3-point field goals (-120)
Snellings: Interesting twist on an oldie-but-goodie. Trae Young tends to lead the NBA in picks used every season and according to Second Spectrum, he leads the league again this season as well. Traditionally, the Timberwolves have been horrible at defending the on-ball pick. Thus, when these teams face off, I tend to pick Young and his pick-and-roll partners John Collins and Clint Capela to have big games against the Timberwolves.
The twist is this season the Timberwolves added Patrick Beverley and are giving more playing time to defensive-minded forwards. According to Second Spectrum, they actually allow the fifth-fewest points in the NBA per chance when defending picks. If you zoom in closer, both Beverley and D'Angelo Russell are solid on-ball defenders against the pick when the pick-setter is defended by anyone except Karl-Anthony Towns. But without Capela, backup center Onyeka Okongwu will be Young's pick-partner to bring Towns into the mix. Per Second Spectrum, Young and Okongwu have generated a strong 1.103 points per chance when Okongwu sets screens for Young, but in a relatively small sample of 61 picks on the season.
Young has averaged 28.8 points per game and 9.6 assists per game in his last 10 games and scored 29 points with 11 assists the last time he faced the Timberwolves with Capela healthy. So the over/-unders are set right at his typical values. Collins has averaged 15.2 points per game in the six games since he's returned from the health and safety protocol and back issues and scored 13 points last month against the Timberwolves. Even with the Timberwolves on the second half of a road back-to-back, I'll pick their defense to stand up. I would probably go over on points for Okongwu, but he's not currently on the board.
Pick: Young under 28.5 points, Young under 10.5 assists, Collins under 17.5 points
Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics (-5, 221) on ESPN
Snellings: Both the Celtics and Hornets have won seven of their last 10 games. Well, actually, the Hornets have won eight of their last 11, with an average scoring margin of 5.3 points. The Celtics have an average scoring margin of 6.3 points over their last 10. Both teams went to Philadelphia to face the 76ers last week. The Celtics lost by 12 while the Hornets won by 11. Both teams have played well since they started getting healthier, and it's difficult to draw a clear line of delineation between them as to who is playing better.
I see this one as a toss-up, and the BPI game predictor supports this, with the Celtics favored by a 1.7-point margin -- which is less than the estimated 3-point home court advantage margin. All told, it is hard for me to see giving five points against a Hornets team playing this well.
Pick: Hornets +5
Marks: The Hornets are 5-1 ATS their last six games. In their last 10 games, Charlotte ranks second in scoring -- averaging 113 points per game, 6th in offensive efficiency, 3rd in fast break scoring, and 4th in points in the paint. They also have improved defensively -- only allowing 107 points per game. Meanwhile, the Celtics haven't been as consistent, averaging 108 points per game, while allowing 101.
Pick: Hornets +5
Cleveland Cavaliers (-1, 217) at Chicago Bulls
Snellings: The Cavaliers and Bulls are moving in opposite directions right now. The Cavaliers have been getting healthier since their COVID-19 outbreak last month, winning five straight games and six of their last seven. The Bulls, on the other hand, are missing multiple key players (including Zach LaVine and Lonzo Ball) and have lost four straight games by a combined total of 83 points.
The Cavaliers are for real, and with a win they could move within a half-game of the Bulls for first place in the Central Division. They have one of the biggest teams in the NBA and should be able to physically overwhelm an injured and reeling Bulls squad. According to BPI, the Cavaliers have a 64.2% chance to win outright, with an expected margin of 3.9 points.
Pick: Cavaliers -1
Memphis Grizzlies at Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5, 225)
Snellings: The Bucks are finally starting to get healthy, with starting C Brook Lopez as the last major player on their injured list. Starting PG Jrue Holiday has been sidelined with an ankle injury and the team is 3-10 without him this season. He is listed as questionable for Wednesday, but could possibly return. When healthy, the defending champion Bucks would again become one of the most formidable teams in the league.
That said, the Grizzlies are simply playing too well right now to be getting 6.5 points against anyone. The Grizzlies have won 12 of their last 13 games, with an average scoring margin of 9.0 points, including road wins over the Nets, Cavaliers and Suns. Meanwhile, the Bucks have lost two in a row and six of their last 10. Even if Holiday plays, if he's in any way rusty he could have trouble slowing down Ja Morant and the Grizzlies.
Pick: Grizzlies +6.5
Toronto Raptors at Dallas Mavericks (-4, 206.5) 8:30 p.m. ET
Moody: In his last five games, Pascal Siakam averaged 24.4 points, 9.0 rebounds, 7.6 assists, and 41 minutes. The Raptors will continue to rely on him against the Mavericks, as he has a Usage Rate of 26.2% this season. This recent stretch of games has also seen Siakam shine as a facilitator.
Picks: Siakam over 34.5 total points + assists + rebounds (-120), Siakam over 1.5 total blocks + steals (-170)
Marks: The Raptors are on their fourth game of a five-game road trip and have gone 1-2 so far. Toronto has been unable to score in triple digits in both losses. Dallas averages 105 points per game and is 9-1 on the under in their last 10 games and 11-1 on the under in their last 12 home games.
Pick: Under 207
Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs (-6.5, 219.5) 8:30 p.m. ET
Moody: Due to his versatility and ability to contribute to multiple statistical categories consistently, Josh Giddey has had a phenomenal rookie season. In his last 10 games, Giddey has averaged 12.7 points, 8.1 rebounds, 7.0 assists, and 32 minutes. Per game, the Spurs have been a favorable matchup for point guards all season. This season, San Antonio has allowed 24 points, 7.1 rebounds and 8.1 assists per game to the position.
Picks: Giddey over 27.5 total points assists rebounds (-120)
LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets (-8, 212.5) 10 p.m. ET on ESPN
Marks: The Clippers are still without Paul George and have struggled on the road. They are 6-7 ATS in their last 13 games, averaging only 103 points per game and allowing 109. Denver has been playing better as of late, going 4-2 ATS their last 6 games while averaging 113 points per game. The Nuggets have won 2 of their last 3 games by more than 30 points.
Pick: Nuggets -8
Fortenbaugh: This is an outstanding matchup for Denver's glass cleaners, as the Clippers currently rank an abysmal 28th in total rebounding, 29th in defensive rebounding and 27th in offensive rebounding.
Aaron Gordon is pulling down 5.7 rebounds per game this season, so we're not asking him to do anything far above his season average. He has eclipsed this total in four of his last five and six of his last nine outings, one of which came on Jan. 11 against this same Clippers team, where Gordon pulled down a season-high 12 boards.
Pick: Gordon over 5.5 rebounds (-130)
Detroit Pistons at Sacramento Kings (-5.5, 221)
Snellings: The Pistons, like many extremely young teams, can be quite mercurial. They have one of the worst records in the league, but every so often they come out of nowhere and beat a good team, like they did twice last week (against the Raptors and Jazz). However, also like many other young teams, these surprise performances almost always come at (or near) home. On the road, particularly when out West and far from their usual stomping grounds, the Pistons tend to struggle. In their last 12 road games, they are 1-11 with an average scoring margin of -19.1 points. They've lost their last four road games by a combined total of 121 points, including their 16-point loss to the Warriors on Tuesday night.
The Kings are up-and-down, but have won five of their last eight home games -- including wins over the Heat and Mavericks. According to BPI, the Kings have a 76.7% chance to win outright, with an expected scoring margin of 8.3 points.
Pick: Kings -5.5 points