As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers with those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is FPI's implied line. FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into Week 8!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 7-3-10
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Week 8 games
Los Angeles Rams (-14.5, 46) at Houston Texans
This is kind of amazing, because FPI actually gave the Rams a tiny upgrade after a tighter-than-it-should-have-been victory over the Lions. And yes, Detroit gave Los Angeles everything it had -- starting with a surprise onside kick and fake punt early in the game. But again, FPI didn't knock the Rams for Sunday's performance. And in fact, after Houston's 31-5 loss to the Cardinals Sunday, FPI further downgraded the Texans, who were already the worst team in football and are still the worst team in football, according to the model.
And yet despite all of that, here we are. FPI is essentially saying: This has gone too far! The Texans are horrendous. But they are still an NFL team, at home. Davis Mills has been better than Justin Fields. Better than Zach Wilson? Yeah, you caught me, I'm grasping for straws. What do you expect? The case we're making is that Houston is definitely the worst team in the league but not two touchdowns-at-home-to-the-Rams bad. It probably would go that far against the Bills or Buccaneers, but it doesn't see the Rams quite on that same plane.
It's not pretty, but the model doesn't care about pretty. It's just trying to find the right line.
FPI's side: Texans +14.5
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5, 53)
FPI Implied Line: Cardinals -5.5
I am exactly 0% surprised FPI is on the Cardinals considering the model's feelings about these two teams. Let me take that back: I'm 1% surprised because when FPI disagrees with an early line, it's usually on the underdog.
As I mentioned last week: This would look closer if we removed Green Bay's performance, but there's no way a model relying on limited data points is going to throw one out just because.
Green Bay closes the gap slightly because of the preseason prior, but that's not enough to make up the difference. Even without any home-field advantage FPI would make Arizona four points better than Green Bay. Add in a little home-field edge, and that's how it gets up to 5.5.
FPI's side: Cardinals -3.5
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 52.5)
FPI's Implied Line: Chiefs -8
As of this writing, the Chiefs have slid down to No. 6 in FPI's rankings, which feels incredibly far for a team quarterbacked by Patrick Mahomes ... and it's also completely justified. Mahomes is so good that it makes it feel hard to lose faith in the Chiefs, even after they disappoint. Most of the time it's been the defense coming up short. On Sunday, it was everything. In that loss to the Titans, Mahomes posted by far the worst QBR of his career -- a 6.1, some 30 points below his previous low.
He's still Patrick Mahomes, he still has the sixth-best QBR in the league ... and the Chiefs also still have that same defense. It ranks 30th in EPA per play against the pass, 31st against the run and 32nd overall. That trifecta of awful is so problematic that even when Mahomes is on he doesn't get a ton of breathing room. Mahomes can withstand an average, probably an even below-average defense, but this caliber of terrible is a problem.
The Giants received a modest one-point upgrade from FPI for their surprisingly strong 25-3 win over Carolina Sunday. And to add confidence: The model doesn't know that that victory came with the team missing Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney and Saquon Barkley. Should the Giants get some of those players back next week, that should help.
Ultimately the Giants have been below average on both sides of the ball. This is hardly a vote of confidence. But the way FPI sees it, it can't justify a 10-point line on the Chiefs at the moment, even against the Giants.
FPI's side: Giants +10
Early Week 8 lines (as of 10 p.m. ET Sunday, via Caesars Sportsbook)
Thursday
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5, 53)
Sunday
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 47)
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-13.5, 49.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-3, 43.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 48.5) at Detroit Lions
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5, 43.5) at New York Jets
Los Angeles Rams (-14.5, 46) at Houston Texans
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, 48)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 44)
Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos (-3.5, 43.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5, 50) at New Orleans Saints
Dallas Cowboys (-1, 53) at Minnesota Vikings
Monday
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 52.5)