Week 7 brings us our first significant bye week of the NFL season and is a nice, natural checkpoint about a third of the way through the schedule.
We now have enough data points to comfortably draw some conclusions about which teams are for real, and which teams are not. I think the Power Rankings generally reflect that pretty accurately. The top five teams appear to me to accurately reflect the five best teams in the NFL so far (perhaps not in that order, but that's neither here nor there).
Three of those five teams are in action in Week 7, and they're all laying at least 13.5 points! Truly powerful and great teams will merely scoff at such a large number, then go out there and win by three scores.
Let's see if these teams will answer that bell or if one is due for an ATS letdown.
Arizona Cardinals (1)
Fresh off an impressive -- albeit imperfect -- win at Cleveland, the only undefeated team in the NFL returns home in Week 7 to take on the Houston Texans (ranked 30th in the Power Rankings).
The Cardinals are handing the Texans a 17-point head start. Should you lay the lumber? I'd be wary. Arizona has done nothing but impress this season, so perhaps it's foolish of me to say this, but I'm not sure the Cardinals are as good as their 6-0 record suggests. Now, they most definitely should beat the Texans by 20-30 points, but this could be a little bit of a look-ahead letdown spot.
The Cardinals might be looking ahead to Week 8's Thursday night matchup against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on short rest, and might leave the back door open for the woeful Texans. Just thinking out loud here ... but I'm still laying the lumber with the Cardinals. C'mon, this is the Texans.
Los Angeles Rams (3)
Back at SoFi Stadium after a walk in Central Park against the New York Giants, the Rams welcome Jared Goff and the winless Detroit Lions to L.A. as 15-point favorites.
While Matthew Stafford is flourishing in Los Angeles under Sean McVay (he leads the NFL with a 75.0 QBR through 6 weeks), Goff is seemingly the source of increasing consternation for Lions head coach Dan Campbell with each passing week.
The Rams' offense can overwhelm an overmatched Lions defense, and Aaron Donald finally getting to sack Goff after years of playing two-hand touch at practice while he was a teammate is a concerning thought for the ultra pressure-sensitive Lions QB. Methinks McVay and Stafford will take no mercy on old friends and the Rams will run it up like they did against the Giants.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4)
Finally the first massive favorite that gives me a little pause. Let's start with the opponent: While the Bears are certainly no behemoth, they're definitely two or three classes above the Lions and Texans in the NFL hierarchy.
Justin Fields has yet to put forth a signature stat line as an NFL pro, but if there ever was a time it would be against the Bucs. Tampa Bay is the league's most extreme pass funnel defense. The Bucs are so dominant against the run, they force you throw the ball almost every time it's snapped. Increased opportunity could be just what Fields needs to finally soar.
The Bucs are clearly a superior team in every way you can measure, and deserving of a top-five spot in the Power Rankings, but of all the massive underdogs in Week 7, the Bears are my favorite to back at +13.5 against Brady and the Bucs' vaunted defense.