As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers to those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is FPI's implied line. FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into Week 5!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 3-3-6
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Week 5 games
New Orleans Saints at Washington Football Team (PK, 44)
FPI's Implied Line: Saints -3
Every year there's a team or two that NFL FPI just falls for. No matter what goes wrong for that team, the model will provide a rose-tinted view of that franchise going forward. Well, we've found one of those teams this season: it's the New Orleans Saints.
Don't get me wrong: The model downgraded New Orleans after losing to the lowly Giants -- at home no, less -- but still makes the Saints about 2.5 points better than an average team. In terms of expected points added per play, they've been average on offense and above average on defense, so that checks out. There are no actual feelings at play here -- that's why we deal with models, after all -- it's just that, for whatever reason, sportsbooks seem to like the Saints a little less than FPI does. The strange thing is that, if anything, I'd expect us to be a little down on New Orleans, since the Saints' worst game of the year (loss to the Panthers) came while missing a large portion of their coaching staff, something FPI doesn't know. Sunday's loss was, in a way, their first at full strength.
That brings us to Washington. Relative to the hype it received in the preseason, that defense has fallen flat on its face. Even entering Sunday's narrow win over the Falcons in which Washington allowed 30 points, the Football Team's defense ranked 24th in EPA per play (I won't have updated EPA numbers for them until after this posts). The pass rush has been good -- eighth in PRWR entering Week 4 -- but not electric, and Chase Young still hasn't recorded a sack.
Though Washington won on Sunday it was a narrow victory over a bad team. That's not worth much.
Ultimately FPI prices these teams a little over five points apart. Even if we award two for home-field advantage, it still favors the Saints by a field goal.
FPI's side: Saints PK
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 57)
FPI's Implied Line: PK
Well this is interesting.
Last week FPI made the big move to push the Bills up to the No. 1 rank -- and we're about to get a perfect chance to test that hypothesis. Nothing the Bills did in Week 4 (a blowout over the Texans) did anything to change FPI's mind and the Chiefs, while fairly impressive against the Eagles, didn't do nearly enough to reverse the decision.
From a numbers perspective it's easy to see that the Bills do appear to be the best in the league. The Bills are not only the league leader in EPA per play on defense, but through the 1 p.m. games the difference between them and the No. 2 team is the same as the difference between the No. 2 team and No. 24 team! Part of that is who they played, but that's why FPI includes opponent adjustments. The Chiefs, through the 1 p.m. games, have the worst EPA per play defense in the league.
Offensively, yes, the Chiefs have the best offense in the league -- as they demonstrated again on Sunday. But that gap between them and the Bills is smaller than the one on defense, which is why FPI favors Buffalo. Ultimately this is a question of prior strength: FPI appears to be willing to update faster than the sportsbooks. That's not a judgment either way, but just the reason why this differential exists. But in FPI's mind, given what it has seen this year, the Bills getting a full field goal on the road is a gift. Even against the Chiefs.
FPI's side: Bills +3
Futures
Minnesota Vikings to win NFC North (+550)
FPI Projection: 18.9% (+429)
FPI stood out for being high on the Vikings a week ago, but it was for good reason: the results were misleading. Minnesota lost in Week 1 in overtime and then lost in Week 2 at the Cardinals -- a team that is actually a lot better than we realized at the time -- off a short missed field goal before a solid win over a pretty strong Seahawks team. The first two weeks easily could have gone the other way and wouldn't, or shouldn't, have really affected how we viewed that team.
Now Minnesota did add another loss, but it was by only a touchdown to a very strong opponent. It's a downgrade, but not a severe one. Through the 1 p.m. window the Vikings look to be about average on both offense and defense in terms of EPA per play.
But being average also makes them the second-most likely team to win that division. Sure, Green Bay appears to be better and definitely has a better situation in terms of the standings. But if the Packers somehow falter, the Vikings will be the team to take advantage. +550 is a value.
Early Week 5 Lines (as of 10 p.m. ET Sunday, via Caesars Sportsbook)
Thursday
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (PK, 53.5)
Sunday
New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 44)
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-8.5, 49)
New Orleans Saints at Washington Football Team (PK, 44)
New England Patriots at Houston Texans
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Green Bay Packers(-3.5, 49) at Cincinnati Bengals
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (PK, 40.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-4, 46)
Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 48.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (PK, 53.5)
Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5, 45.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5, 53.5)
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, 49.5)
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 57)
Monday
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 48)