As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers to those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Starting in Week 2, our point of comparison will be our FPI implied line. FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. So I'll keep a running tally here each week on that front. That's not that exciting after last week, because while there was some movement from our games, they all ended up in the exact same place they started.
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 0-0-4.
Now, let's dive into Week 3!
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Week 3 games
Carolina Panthers (-7, 43.5) at Houston Texans
FPI's implied line: Panthers -3.5
I know what you're thinking: This difference is because of quarterback uncertainty! But here's the thing: FPI's prediction is working under the assumption that, with the game on Thursday, Tyrod Taylor will be out and Davis Mills will be Houston's starter. What's happening is that we're seeing the effect of our predictive QB ratings despising Taylor, which means it's completely unbothered by the quarterback change. (One note: Changes to QB ratings aren't reflected in FPI's ratings until Monday. And Mills had a QBR of 9.8 against the Browns, so his rating -- and therefore our prediction on Houston -- will inevitably drop a little overnight, though I don't think it will move anywhere close to the spread given the current discrepancy).
Given that, the difference here is based on how the sportsbooks and FPI view team strength after the first two games of the season. Houston beat expectations for a second time in a row Sunday, and were upgraded by about a point after hanging in against a very good Browns team.
Carolina also was upgraded after its upset win over New Orleans by more than two points. Evidently, the books believe the Panthers should have moved more or Houston should have moved less.
There's also one qualitative reason to fade the Panthers here, not considered by FPI: The Saints were missing eight members of their coaching staff due to COVID-19 protocols, and I have a hard time imagining how that wasn't a factor that worked to Carolina's advantage.
FPI's side: Texans +7
Washington Football Team at Buffalo Bills (-9.5, 47)
FPI's implied line: Bills -7
FPI is fading the Bills again (after being completely wrong in Week 2, we should note), despite a pretty monster upgrade to the tune of almost 3 points after their 35-0 demolition of the Dolphins on Sunday. Why the fade? I have to think that Week 1 still lingers in FPI's proverbial mind. The Steelers, who upset the Bills a week ago, on Sunday lost as a favorite to the Raiders -- lowering FPI's rating for Pittsburgh and retroactively making Buffalo's Week 1 performance look even worse. That could be a driver of the difference here.
Another factor here is Taylor Heinicke. After we were critical of him in this space a week ago, our quarterback ratings upgraded him significantly after Washington was decent in the passing game against the Giants.
And there's one more issue at play here: rest differential. Washington played on Thursday, and it will get a few more days of rest relative to Buffalo, and FPI rewards Washington for that -- mitigating (but not entirely depleting) the advantage the Bills gain by being home.
FPI's side: Washington +9.5
Arizona Cardinals (-7, 52) at Jacksonville Jaguars
FPI's implied line: Cardinals -5
Kyler Murray and the Cardinals are fun as all heck, but FPI isn't anointing them just yet. After all, they were a short field goal away from losing to the Vikings -- who FPI considered the 18th-best team in the league entering today -- in Arizona. As good as Murray looked, the Cardinals didn't cover the spread, and FPI isn't going to deliver a major upgrade in a game where that's the case.
The Jaguars have descended below Houston (but narrowly ahead of the Jets) in terms of Week 3 FPI ratings, and so there's no love here for what's happening in Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence has posted a disastrous -12.5% completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. I point this out to say only that FPI has no love for the Jaguars; it just doesn't think they should be 7-point underdogs. Arizona as road favorites by a touchdown looks a bit much.
FPI's side: Jaguars +7
Futures
Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl (+1300)
This is fairly shocking considering FPI is down on the Bills relative to the spread in Week 3, but we currently give the Bills a 14.5% chance to win the Super Bowl, a pretty substantial value against 13-1. (Note: FPI's run did not consider the Chiefs-Ravens game, and this writing occurred during the first half of that game.)
FPI considers the Bills in the same tier as the Buccaneers: clearly behind the Chiefs but still a major threat. And the Bills chances also are buoyed by a weaker division: The flip side of FPI's upgrade of Buffalo is a downgrade for Miami, which looks like less of a threat now.
Even putting aside FPI, I'm quite surprised to see Buffalo tied for the third-best Super Bowl odds only at 13-1, though that is just feel. The futures disparity here also suggests that the Week 3 line differential might have more to do with Washington than Buffalo.
Early Week 3 Lines (as of 10 p.m. ET Sunday, via Caesars Sportsbook)
Thursday
Carolina Panthers (-7, 43.5) at Houston Texans
Sunday
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-5, 51)
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-3. 48.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (TBD)
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 45)
Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (-7.5, 46.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions (TBD)
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-3, 43)
Arizona Cardinals (-7, 52) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Washington Football Team at Buffalo Bills (-9.5, 47)
New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-11, 41.5)
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5, 45.5)
Seattle Seahawks (-1, 55) at Minnesota Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5, 54)
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-4, 48)
Monday
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-4, 51.5)