Welcome to 2021, fight fans. And if you think we've run out of new ways to watch UFC fights, think again. On Saturday, the promotion will make its debut on the ABC Network in an early timeslot marking the first event of the new year. As they have in the past when getting major network audiences, promoters have chosen what should be a fan-friendly striking duel for the main event.
Prelims start at Noon ET Saturday on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 3 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+.
Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Featherweight main event: No. 1 Max Holloway (-155) vs. No. 6 Calvin Kattar (+135)
It's mindboggling that, after so many title appearances, Max Holloway enters this weekend's main event as the younger fighter. The main question around Holloway's return is not about his experience, but about the damage he has absorbed in recent fights. Having dropped three out of his last four, Holloway was noticeably damaged in his experiment in the Lightweight division against Dustin Poirier. However, back at Featherweight, Holloway had two competitive showings against the division's new champ, Alexander Volkanovski. At just 29, let's hope we see Holloway still in his prime, because his opponent, Calvin Kattar, is another rangy striking specialist looking to earn a title shot off Holloway with a dominant showing.
There's no doubt we'll see plenty of striking. Between them, Holloway and Kattar have landed just eight total takedowns in their collective seven hours of active fight time. Thanks also to their solid takedown defenses, both fighters have spent the vast majority of their fights on their feet.
Standing at a distance is where things get interesting on paper. Both men are superior strikers, boasting excellent accuracy, while also maintaining a good pace. With 12 career knockdowns scored between them, neither has an abnormally high knockdown rate, although Kattar does get the edge in that metric. The biggest difference is in defense. Kattar has subpar head-strike avoidance, while Holloway has solidified his performance metrics against nothing but elite talent for many years. In a shootout, Holloway should be landing more strikes -- and he should continue to do so through rounds. Kattar will be the greater power-striking threat, but Holloway has pummeled excellent strikers many times while avoiding the big counter.
We're going to see a striking duel, and it's going to be close. Nevertheless, Holloway has proven to be resilient in a shootout, and his stamina will certainly be a benefit to him in rounds four and five. Even if Kattar comes out hot, Holloway should edge more rounds on the cards, assuming he's still performing at his normal level of skill.
E+ recommends: ML lean on Holloway, Fight Starts Round 3 for parlays.
Best bets elsewhere on the card
Welterweight Santiago Ponzinibbio secured a seven-fight win streak before succumbing to a two-year injury layoff. His opponent, Li Jingliang, is also on a strong run at 7-2 over the last five years. On paper, Ponzinibbio has defeated more dangerous and elite talent, and he also has key statistical advantages. His price is steep, but the line doesn't seem to be moving.
E+ recommends: Ensure he still looks in fighting shape, then use Ponzinibbio for parlays.
Deep on the undercard, there's a potential "loser go home" matchup between Sarah Moras and Vanessa Melo. Both have losing records, but upon closer inspection it's worth noting that they happened to have each faced solid divisional talent. It looks like a very close fight on paper, and both are accustomed to making it to the cards.
E+ recommends: Slight moneyline lean on Melo, if you're getting sizable plus money. More importantly, use the Over 2.5 rounds or Fight Goes to Decision for parlays.
The analysis offered here does not include unit-based bet recommendations or account for final closing lines. Raw data is provided by Fight Metric, with analysis by Reed Kuhn, author of "Fightnomics: the Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts."