Much of the talk leading up to Sunday's games was about the weather -- specifically the wind and how it affected the totals on five games. Those five games (Minnesota-Green Bay, New England-Buffalo, Tennessee-Cincinnati, Las Vegas-Cleveland and New Orleans-Chicago) moved down by an average of 6.5 points from opening line to closing line. Those are significant moves, and it wound up being an interesting lesson in getting the best of the number.
We discussed the wind effects on our Sunday morning NFL edition of Daily Wager, but we didn't have a chance to analyze how applicable that is the morning of the games. After all, the totals had been moving down all week. The truth of the matter is the market can overreact to the extreme the other way. If you had bet overs in all five games before kickoff Sunday, you went 4-1. But if you had bet the unders earlier in the week, you also went 4-1. It's the perfect illustration of the importance of getting the best number. If you wake up Sunday morning and hear about the weather or big sharp action on certain sides causing big moves, it's probably too late -- and if anything, at that point, there might be value going the other way.
For Week 9, I'm going to look at two of the totals that moved this week and how that might be at least somewhat related to the weather and lines from Week 8. I will also take a look at my top 10 teams in the NFL from a point spread perspective and compare them to the ESPN power rankings that were released Tuesday.
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Tuesday.
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, 55) at Buffalo Bills
The Patriots-Bills line in Week 8 crashed, and I think that played a role in the market opening the total against the Seahawks at just 51. Considering that the weather forecast was clear in Buffalo, I was shocked to see such a low total against the NFL's best offense from Seattle (57% success rate, a measure of efficiency). The Bills rank No. 6 in success rate. The Bills move to No. 4 when looking at offensive expected points added. The Seahawks are No. 2 in EPA.
Neither defense has been very good this season, but health has certainly played a factor. With Jamal Adams potentially making his return and Carlos Dunlap debuting for Seattle, is it possible that we are seeing an overreaction in reverse to what we saw in Week 8? Is this too high? Maybe, but not by much, in my opinion. My projection settles in at 54, so the initial move was warranted, like I mentioned. However, with the upgrade on the defensive side of the ball for the Seahawks against a Bills offense that has been struggling of late, I think the value lies on the Seattle side at -2.5. The market was anti-Seahawks in Week 8 against the 49ers, and it appears to be again against the Bills. At this point, I would be staying away from the total, but I'm betting the -2.5.
New England Patriots (-7, 42.5) at New York Jets
This is another matchup that stood out to me, with a total of just 41 early in the week. I think this was likely a combination of three things: the Patriots-Bills total market move in Week 8, the perception that the Patriots' offense is a mess and the perception that the Jets are the Jets (OK, they are). New England was a Cam Newton fumble in the red zone from probably beating the Bills this past week. The Patriots rank 14th in the NFL in success rate and were missing Newton for a game in Kansas City. I won't defend the Jets, but they have been clearly better with Sam Darnold under center, rather than Joe Flacco. I agree with this move up, and I still think the 42s that are in the market are worth grabbing.
ESPN Week 8 Power Rankings
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-0)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (7-1)
3. Seahawks (6-1)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2)
5. Baltimore Ravens (5-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (6-2)
7. Bills (6-2)
8. New Orleans Saints (5-2)
9. Tennessee Titans (5-2)
10. Arizona Cardinals (5-2)
Preston's Power Ratings
1. Chiefs
2. Ravens +1.2
3. Seahawks + 3.7
4. Buccaneers +4.2
5. Steelers +4.4
6. Packers +4.5
7. Saints +4.6
8. Indianapolis Colts +5.7
9. Los Angeles Rams +6.3
10. Titans +7.0
I still have qualms about the Steelers at No. 1. They beat the Ravens on Sunday, but they were outgained 457 yards to 221. Baltimore turned it over four times, plus a fifth time on downs. My game grades were more impressed by Baltimore's underlying stats than Pittsburgh's, despite the final score. The Chiefs would still be the favorites over the Steelers on a neutral field in the betting markets.
The team that made the most noise in my ratings -- the Colts -- isn't in ESPN's top 10. I was shocked to see the Colts get bet from -2 to -3.5 on Sunday morning in Detroit against the Lions. Not only that, but also they won emphatically. I made a fairly significant upgrade to my Colts rating, and they moved past the 49ers (Jimmy Garoppolo-related), Titans and Rams. They have a shot in Week 9 against Baltimore to prove their case for everybody else, but they've earned a top-10 ranking in my eyes.